Last week the head of the Russian National Defence Management Centre, colonel general Mikhail Mizintsev, said Russia had sent formal proposals to Washington on US-Russian efforts to fund the reconstruction of Syria, which would facilitate the return of millions of Syrian refugees to the country.
Col Gen Mizintsev's comments suggested that Donald Trump had agreed with Vladimir Putin at their meeting in Helsinki to participate in Syria's reconstruction, which would be at odds with the official American position until now. Soon after, a US National Security Council spokesman walked back any impression of collaboration, noting: "There were no commitments to undertake any concrete action, beyond agreement that both sides should continue discussions."
Yet even this indicated some ambiguity on Washington’s part on a vital question that will come up in Syria once the conflict there ends: will countries that were opposed to President Bashar Al Assad’s regime for having engaged in war crimes and crimes against humanity be willing to finance Syrian reconstruction, in a way that consolidates the regime’s hold over the country?
Despite claims from many governments that they would never bolster Mr Al Assad, there are reasons to suppose attitudes may change. The main reason is refugees. After meeting German Chancellor Angela Merkel last May, Mr Putin made the link, declaring that Europe's financing of Syria's reconstruction would allow a return of Syrian refugees from Europe. The Russian president called on European states "not to politicise" the reconstruction debate.
Mr Putin's remarks could also be read as a threat. Were the Europeans to refuse to assist Syria financially, he implied, they could face a situation similar to the one in 2015. Mr Al Assad would shut the door on any returnees so that millions of desperate refugees, eager to leave their miserable places of refuge in the Middle East, would instead seek to migrate to a prosperous Europe. The only way to avert this would be to create conditions for the refugees to go home.
This creates a profound fear in Europe and even European officials will quietly suggest that principle might be tossed to the wind. Nor are they necessarily alone. While the Russians have taken a more circumspect position with the Americans, one could expect that in their conversations, the terrorism argument will be used: that a large, rootless refugee population will heighten resentment and create conditions facilitating the recruitment of Syrians by terrorist groups.
However, if the Europeans (and possibly the Americans) fold, one can expect the Assad regime to exploit this to the fullest. For a good sense of what it might do, one need only look at how the regime manipulated humanitarian aid during the Syrian conflict. At every turn, its aim was to funnel all outside aid through regime-approved institutions or non-governmental organisations, making the regime an indispensable interlocutor and ensuring it could retain and enhance its power.
The Europeans, if they were to decide to fund reconstruction, would likely try to preserve a modicum of self-respect and deniability by not operating through regime bodies. Some kind of mechanism could be created to keep alive the illusion of not collaborating. Perhaps the Syrians, at Russia’s urging, would set up non-state bodies or private companies made up of private sector businessmen to dispense outside money. Such bodies or companies would be closely tied to the regime but without being identified as such.
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Read more from Michael Young:
Trump is using the same process as Obama in the Middle East
Rise of Hezbollah is the price Lebanon has paid for a post-civil war order
Trump needs to define achievable political objectives in Syria
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Ironically, the recent furore over the Syrian government's passage of Law 10 may hint at a ready means of doing so. The law allows for the creation of property companies to redevelop areas destroyed during the conflict. While attention was focused on how the law could be used to engage in sectarian cleansing, there was little discussion of how the companies might be used to funnel reconstruction funds outside formal regime channels, in such a way that they could be portrayed as direct transfers to the private sector.
The Russians are aware that reconstruction will be essential in solidifying Mr Al Assad's rule and that neither they nor Iran have the money to do so on their own. Western countries, they realise, must participate and given the potential profits, there is likely to be interest under a facade of disapproval. Governments and private companies will find ways of justifying reconstruction funding.
After all, no one held it against Lebanon that its post-war political class was made of one-time warlords with blood on their hands, as western companies invested in reconstruction after 1990. That is why Mr Putin’s words will likely resonate in Europe and the US, where populations have shown uncertainty, not to say open hostility at times, towards Mr Al Assad’s victims.
Some time ago it became clear that Mr Al Assad was likely to get away with murder in Syria. The US under Barack Obama and Mr Trump has done little to make him pay for his regime’s crimes. The European Union regarded the massive arrival of Syrians and others as an existential crisis, one that could undermine the foundations of the EU. Mr Putin knows all this, which is why he is pressing ahead with his threats. He can sense that he is facing paper tigers.
Michael Young is editor of Diwan, the blog of the Carnegie Middle East programme, in Beirut
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Etihad (etihad.com) flies from Abu Dhabi to Mykonos, with a flight change to its partner airline Olympic Air in Athens. Return flights cost from Dh4,105 per person, including taxes.
Where to stay
The modern-art-filled Ambassador hotel (myconianambassador.gr) is 15 minutes outside Mykonos Town on a hillside 500 metres from the Platis Gialos Beach, with a bus into town every 30 minutes (a taxi costs €15 [Dh66]). The Nammos and Scorpios beach clubs are a 10- to 20-minute walk (or water-taxi ride) away. All 70 rooms have a large balcony, many with a Jacuzzi, and of the 15 suites, five have a plunge pool. There’s also a private eight-bedroom villa. Double rooms cost from €240 (Dh1,063) including breakfast, out of season, and from €595 (Dh2,636) in July/August.
The biog
Name: Dhabia Khalifa AlQubaisi
Age: 23
How she spends spare time: Playing with cats at the clinic and feeding them
Inspiration: My father. He’s a hard working man who has been through a lot to provide us with everything we need
Favourite book: Attitude, emotions and the psychology of cats by Dr Nicholes Dodman
Favourit film: 101 Dalmatians - it remind me of my childhood and began my love of dogs
Word of advice: By being patient, good things will come and by staying positive you’ll have the will to continue to love what you're doing
The five pillars of Islam
THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now
TWISTERS
Director: Lee Isaac Chung
Starring: Glen Powell, Daisy Edgar-Jones, Anthony Ramos
Rating: 2.5/5
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Zakat definitions
Zakat: an Arabic word meaning ‘to cleanse’ or ‘purification’.
Nisab: the minimum amount that a Muslim must have before being obliged to pay zakat. Traditionally, the nisab threshold was 87.48 grams of gold, or 612.36 grams of silver. The monetary value of the nisab therefore varies by current prices and currencies.
Zakat Al Mal: the ‘cleansing’ of wealth, as one of the five pillars of Islam; a spiritual duty for all Muslims meeting the ‘nisab’ wealth criteria in a lunar year, to pay 2.5 per cent of their wealth in alms to the deserving and needy.
Zakat Al Fitr: a donation to charity given during Ramadan, before Eid Al Fitr, in the form of food. Every adult Muslim who possesses food in excess of the needs of themselves and their family must pay two qadahs (an old measure just over 2 kilograms) of flour, wheat, barley or rice from each person in a household, as a minimum.
ENGLAND SQUAD
Team: 15 Mike Brown, 14 Anthony Watson, 13 Ben Te'o, 12 Owen Farrell, 11 Jonny May, 10 George Ford, 9 Ben Youngs, 1 Mako Vunipola, 2 Dylan Hartley, 3 Dan Cole, 4 Joe Launchbury, 5 Maro Itoje, 6 Courtney Lawes, 7 Chris Robshaw, 8 Sam Simmonds
Replacements 16 Jamie George, 17 Alec Hepburn, 18 Harry Williams, 19 George Kruis, 20 Sam Underhill, 21 Danny Care, 22 Jonathan Joseph, 23 Jack Nowell
The years Ramadan fell in May
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What is type-1 diabetes
Type 1 diabetes is a genetic and unavoidable condition, rather than the lifestyle-related type 2 diabetes.
It occurs mostly in people under 40 and a result of the pancreas failing to produce enough insulin to regulate blood sugars.
Too much or too little blood sugar can result in an attack where sufferers lose consciousness in serious cases.
Being overweight or obese increases the chances of developing the more common type 2 diabetes.
