US President Joe Biden's April 14 announcement of the withdrawal of combat forces from Afghanistan caught many observers by surprise. The Pakistan Army was not one of them. It has insisted for two decades that foreign military victory over the Taliban was impossible, and that the western presence was as unsustainable as was the Soviets before them. Although US forces have now been in-country for twice as long as the Soviets, the latter's experience and the Pakistani response are useful guides for what lies ahead.
The Soviets in 1979, like the Americans in 2001, had never intended to linger in Afghanistan. But year after year, their friends in Kabul pleaded for just a little more time to turn the corner. The result was that they found themselves stuck, trapped by the inability of their new client regimes to contain the insurgencies that bloomed in the countryside.
Unsurprisingly, the Soviet politburo and the White House alike badly wanted out long before the world realised it, held back only by the fear of what a retreat might look like to friends and foes around the globe. But eventually former Russian leader Mikhail Gorbachev, just like Mr Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump, simply lost patience and cut his own deal with Pakistan and the Afghan insurgents, with scant regard for the Kabul government’s concerns.
Like the Soviets in 1988, the Americans are vowing to remain deeply engaged despite the military pullout, and to continue to prioritise supplying material and diplomatic support to the Kabul government. Certainly it appears that, like the Soviets before them, the US will retain a very substantial intelligence and consular presence in Afghanistan.
And even more so than the Soviets, the US is signalling that its forces in the region will strike if its enemies reorganise on Afghan soil. As an additional backstop, the Biden administration is also threatening the Taliban with total diplomatic isolation if they return to power with the same anti-woman and anti-minority behaviour shown in their 1996-2001 stint.
Should the Americans be taken seriously? Moscow kept its promises for three long years, despite initial pessimism. When in 1988 the Kremlin signed the Geneva Accords with Pakistan – which set the timetable for Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan – it mistakenly assumed that the Kabul government would collapse like a house of cards after its forces left.
Instead, the withdrawal removed an enormous source of unproductive bureaucratic friction between the Red Army on the one hand, and the KGB and the Afghan government on the other, thereby stabilising the regime. It was only former US president George HW Bush’s arm-twisting amid the upheaval of a collapsing Soviet Union that forced the abandonment of their Afghan comrades in 1991, opening the door to the mujahideen. Ironically, communist rule in Kabul outlasted party control in Moscow.
It is possible that the withdrawal of the already shrinking western military forces may achieve similar results by reducing the Pentagon-CIA-State Department tensions that amplify Afghanistan's dysfunctionality. The Soviet experience shows that what really matters is that the West and others maintain the level of military and economic aid needed to keep the Afghan state running. Given the turbulence of American political and economic life in recent years, this is far from a given.
In his speech, Mr Biden singled out Pakistan in his announcement as the key to success. Given that the Pakistani government is the closest thing to a friend that the Taliban has, what course of action is it likely to take? One thing we can be sure of is that it won't look like a replay of the 1990s.
President Joe Biden speaks from the Treaty Room in the White House earlier this month about the withdrawal of the remainder of US troops from Afghanistan. AP Photo
When the Red Army first rolled into Afghanistan, the regional assumption was that it was there to stay. As a result, Pakistan’s goals were defensive; to keep the Soviets too busy to advance any further. It wasn’t until the CIA’s information in 1984 indicated that the Soviets preferred to leave that Pakistani objectives grew far more ambitious.
Given the war’s permanent displacement of Afghanistan’s centuries-old ruling class, a Soviet retreat would mean that Pakistan could, for the very first time ever, imagine installing a friendly government in Kabul. It was a dream that became steadily more important to the Pakistan Army, as India’s military power and muscle-flexing grew sharply throughout the 1980s. This expanded goal was also something that the US strongly supported as part of the rollback of Soviet influence.
But as its trust in Mr Gorbachev was cemented during the first Gulf War, America increasingly pushed an unhappy Pakistan to compromise. Unfortunately, once the mujahideen fell into civil war following the 1992 collapse of the Afghan government, the US disengaged entirely, leaving Pakistan with a free hand. Little attention was paid in Washington until Osama bin Laden returned to the country in 1996 and began issuing his declarations of war against America.
Things couldn’t be more different now.
First, the US no longer treats South Asia as a sideshow. Instead, it is seen as vital to managing the intensifying competition with China. India is now one of America's key strategic partners, which means Afghanistan will continue to feature prominently on the joint agenda. Second, the US isn't assuming that the extremist threat to its homeland will just go away. The lessons from inattention to Al Qaeda in the 1990s, and to ISIS during the Obama years, appear to be sticking. Crucially, both of these policies were Trump administration priorities, and they are likely to survive even if the Biden-led Democratic Party loses control over Congress and the White House in the 2022 and 2024 elections.
The Geneva Accords in 1988 led to Soviet troop withdrawal from Afghanistan. Getty Images
In short, Pakistan does not have the same freedom to act in Afghanistan that it did from 1989 to 2001, before the American invasion. Its perennial need to avoid rupture with the US will impose restraints, which in turn greatly improves the Kabul government’s chances of survival.
Just as importantly, the Pakistan Army itself has been at the receiving end of extreme violence from cross-border extremism in the past decade, and is now far more cautious about the dangers from a total Taliban victory. Thirdly, Taliban factions are increasingly tying up with other regional powers such as Iran and Russia. Perhaps this explains why the Pakistani government has joined the Afghan and Turkish governments to publicly urge the Taliban to put their guns down and participate in a negotiated political solution to the war.
This is a very encouraging sign, but in the end, as ever, the extent of Pakistan’s helpfulness in Afghanistan will be determined by its level of insecurity vis-a-vis India. This is where American, and indeed Chinese, regional policies are essential to bring the temperature between the two countries down.
It is an awful tragedy that the dreams of millions of young Afghans attending schools and universities for the first time ever across this youthful country depend on how the generals and politicians of other countries behave towards each other. It is the duty of people around the world to ensure that these powerbrokers are accountable for how they treat this precious responsibility.
Johann Chacko is a writer and South Asia analyst
US Marines on the frontlines of a US Marine Corps base, near a cardboard sign reminding everyone that Taliban forces could be anywhere, in southern Afghanistan, December 1, 2001. Reuters
Afghan Army soldiers break the fast at their military base, during Ramadan, amid the coronavirus pandemic in Herat, Afghanistan, April 17. EPA
A man waits for customers at his shop in Kandahar, Afghanistan, April 15. EPA
Afghan security officials pat down vistors at a roadside checkpoint in Helmand, Afghanistan, April 15. EPA
Children collect recycleable waste to be sold for a living, in Jalalabad, Afghanistan, April 15. EPA
An Afghan man who was injured in a bomb blast, receives medical treatment at a hospital in Arghandab district of Kandahar, Afghanistan, April 15. EPA
A US Army soldier near Command Outpost Pa'in Kalay in Maiwand District, Kandahar Province, Afghanistan, February 3, 2013. Reuters
A shoe polisher boy holds an umbrella as he waits for customers under graffiti on a wall in Kabul, Afghanistan April 15. Reuters
Captain Melvin Cabebe with the US Army's 1-320 Field Artillery Regiment, 101st Airborne Division stands near a burning M-ATV armored vehicle after it struck an improvised explosive device near Combat Outpost Nolen in the Arghandab Valley north of Kandahar, Afghanistan, July 23, 2010. Reuters
Youths take pictures near an Afghan flag on a hilltop overlooking Kabul, Afghanistan, April 15. Reuters
Two Northern Alliance soldiers watch as dust and smoke rise after explosions at Taliban positions on Kalakata hill, near the village of Ai Khanum in northern Afghanistan, November 1, 2001. Reuters
Afghan policemen stand next to a captured Taliban fighter after a gun battle near the village of Shajoy in Zabol province, Afghanistan March 22, 2008. Reuters
US Marine Lance Corporal Chris Sanderson, from Flemington, New Jersey shouts as he tries to protect an Afghan man and his child after Taliban fighters opened fire in the town of Marjah, in Nad Ali district, Helmand province, Afghanistan, February 13, 2010. Reuters
Ryan Lemm salutes the casket of his father, NYPD officer Joseph Lemm, who was killed on duty in Afghanistan. New York, US, December 30, 2015. Reuters
A US soldier of 2-12 Infantry 4BCT-4ID Task Force Mountain Warrior takes a break during a night mission near Honaker Miracle camp at the Pesh valley of Kunar Province, Afghanistan, August 12, 2009. Reuters
US soldier Nicholas Dickhut, from 5-20 infantry Regiment, attached to 82nd Airborne, points his rifle at a doorway after coming under fire by the Taliban while on patrol in Zharay district in Kandahar province, Afghanistan April 26, 2012. Reuters
Sgt William Olas Bee, a US Marine from the 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit, has a close call after Taliban fighters opened fire near Garmsir in Helmand Province of Afghanistan, May 18, 2008. Reuters
Lesleigh Coyer, of Saginaw, Michigan, lies down in front of the grave of her brother, Ryan Coyer, who served with the US Army in both Iraq and Afghanistan, at Arlington National Cemetery in Virginia, US, March 11, 2013. Reuters
US President Joe Biden walks through Arlington National cemetary to honour fallen veterans of the Afghan conflict in Arlington, Virginia on April 14. AFP
What sanctions would be reimposed?
Under ‘snapback’, measures imposed on Iran by the UN Security Council in six resolutions would be restored, including:
An arms embargo
A ban on uranium enrichment and reprocessing
A ban on launches and other activities with ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, as well as ballistic missile technology transfer and technical assistance
A targeted global asset freeze and travel ban on Iranian individuals and entities
Authorisation for countries to inspect Iran Air Cargo and Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines cargoes for banned goods
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
The study of 13 essential drugs showed costs in the United States were about 300 per cent higher than the global average, followed by Germany at 126 per cent and 122 per cent in the UAE.
Thailand, Kenya and Malaysia were rated as nations with the lowest costs, about 90 per cent cheaper.
In the case of insulin, diabetic patients in the US paid five and a half times the global average, while in the UAE the costs are about 50 per cent higher than the median price of branded and generic drugs.
Some of the costliest drugs worldwide include Lipitor for high cholesterol.
The study’s price index placed the US at an exorbitant 2,170 per cent higher for Lipitor than the average global price and the UAE at the eighth spot globally with costs 252 per cent higher.
High blood pressure medication Zestril was also more than 2,680 per cent higher in the US and the UAE price was 187 per cent higher than the global price.
Is it worth it? We put cheesecake frap to the test.
The verdict from the nutritionists is damning. But does a cheesecake frappuccino taste good enough to merit the indulgence?
My advice is to only go there if you have unusually sweet tooth. I like my puddings, but this was a bit much even for me. The first hit is a winner, but it's downhill, slowly, from there. Each sip is a little less satisfying than the last, and maybe it was just all that sugar, but it isn't long before the rush is replaced by a creeping remorse. And half of the thing is still left.
The caramel version is far superior to the blueberry, too. If someone put a full caramel cheesecake through a liquidiser and scooped out the contents, it would probably taste something like this. Blueberry, on the other hand, has more of an artificial taste. It's like someone has tried to invent this drink in a lab, and while early results were promising, they're still in the testing phase. It isn't terrible, but something isn't quite right either.
So if you want an experience, go for a small, and opt for the caramel. But if you want a cheesecake, it's probably more satisfying, and not quite as unhealthy, to just order the real thing.
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
UN Panel of Experts found regime secretly sold a fifth of the country's gold reserves.
The panel’s 2017 report followed a trail to West Africa where large sums of cash and gold were hidden by Abdullah Al Senussi, Qaddafi’s former intelligence chief, in 2011.
Cases filled with cash that was said to amount to $560m in 100 dollar notes, that was kept by a group of Libyans in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.
A second stash was said to have been held in Accra, Ghana, inside boxes at the local offices of an international human rights organisation based in France.
The biog
DOB: 25/12/92
Marital status: Single
Education: Post-graduate diploma in UAE Diplomacy and External Affairs at the Emirates Diplomatic Academy in Abu Dhabi
Hobbies: I love fencing, I used to fence at the MK Fencing Academy but I want to start again. I also love reading and writing
Lifelong goal: My dream is to be a state minister
Salman Khan’s father, Salim Khan, is one of Bollywood’s most legendary screenwriters. Through his partnership with co-writer Javed Akhtar, Salim is credited with having paved the path for the Indian film industry’s blockbuster format in the 1970s. Something his son now rules the roost of. More importantly, the Salim-Javed duo also created the persona of the “angry young man” for Bollywood megastar Amitabh Bachchan in the 1970s, reflecting the angst of the average Indian. In choosing to be the ordinary man’s “hero” as opposed to a thespian in new Bollywood, Salman Khan remains tightly linked to his father’s oeuvre. Thanks dad.
GOLF’S RAHMBO
- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Dialysis is a way of cleaning your blood when your kidneys fail and can no longer do the job.
It gets rid of your body's wastes, extra salt and water, and helps to control your blood pressure. The main cause of kidney failure is diabetes and hypertension.
There are two kinds of dialysis — haemodialysis and peritoneal.
In haemodialysis, blood is pumped out of your body to an artificial kidney machine that filter your blood and returns it to your body by tubes.
In peritoneal dialysis, the inside lining of your own belly acts as a natural filter. Wastes are taken out by means of a cleansing fluid which is washed in and out of your belly in cycles.
It isn’t an option for everyone but if eligible, can be done at home by the patient or caregiver. This, as opposed to home haemodialysis, is covered by insurance in the UAE.
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Do not submit your application through the Easy Apply button on LinkedIn. Employers receive between 600 and 800 replies for each job advert on the platform. If you are the right fit for a job, connect to a relevant person in the company on LinkedIn and send them a direct message.
Make sure you are an exact fit for the job advertised. If you are an HR manager with five years’ experience in retail and the job requires a similar candidate with five years’ experience in consumer, you should apply. But if you have no experience in HR, do not apply for the job.
David Mackenzie, founder of recruitment agency Mackenzie Jones Middle East
