Last week's attack on Iran's Natanz nuclear facility, which the regime blames Israel for carrying out, has cast a cloud over the fate of the ongoing nuclear negotiations in Vienna. The talks, being held with the purpose of reviving the 2015 nuclear deal between Tehran and the world's major powers, could end either in a peaceful breakthrough or military confrontation.
Tehran's response so far – including from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – suggests that its need for international sanctions to be lifted is of higher priority than its temptation to retaliate. This is not the first time Iran has swallowed its pride and delayed its own calls for a proportionate response, as was evidenced following the US assassination of Qassem Suleimani, one of its military commanders, last year. However, it isn't just the negotiations to revive the nuclear deal – called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA – that eventually hangs in the balance. The nature, execution and timing of the retaliation for the Natanz attack could eventually shape Iran's presidential election in June and the question of war and peace in the region in the coming months.
Israel is suspected for attacking the Natanz facility allegedly because it seeks to curtail Iran's nuclear weapons programme. And if Iran does decide to take "revenge" on a country it considers to be its ideological foe, the question will be if such a retaliation will be direct, or whether it will implicate other countries through its proxies, led by Hezbollah in Lebanon?
Read More from Raghida Dergham
If the Iranian regime sees the Vienna talks as more likely to further its interests – especially if it backed down from retaliation – then the possibility of a grand bargain remains, despite the high level of tensions between both regional and international powers.
The resumption of talks amid secrecy, in the aftermath of the Natanz attack, carries implications. One is that Washington-Tehran dialogue, even if indirect, has not stopped despite Iranian suspicions that the Biden administration had been briefed about the alleged Israeli attack on the enrichment facility before it was carried out.
For both sides, the priority is to agree the terms for reviving the JCPOA. Naturally, the posturing taking place necessitates raising the ceiling and a game of tug of war. This is given the importance assigned to the goal of restricting Iran’s nuclear capabilities, in return for lifting crippling economic sanctions that have paralysed the regime’s agenda. Today, the two sides are talking of “synchronising” the two issues, instead of squabbling over who goes first.
The rhythm and substance of the nuclear talks could determine which way Mr Khamenei will go. He may either order the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to carry out retaliation strikes in the region, which could amount to a setback for the so-called moderates in the election. Alternatively, he may keep the political heat on low, thereby giving the moderates a fighting chance in the polls, the purpose of which would be to use them – should they succeed in the election – as a much-needed facade while dealing with the international community in the future. This may be immaterial in the grand scheme of things, given that it is the IRGC that will continue to shape Iran’s foreign policy.
If given the go-ahead to strike, the IRGC could consider several options, including stepping up attacks on Israeli vessels, carrying out cyberattacks on its defence systems, conducting operations through Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, which shares a border with Israel, and targeting its embassies around the world.
With the Natanz attack seen as an act of aggression, Tehran has declared its intention to raise the level of uranium enrichment from 20 to 60 and even 90 per cent needed for a bomb, if the negotiations fail. This would give Iran nuclear capabilities ready to be activated militarily. If these threats materialise, the spectre of war could also return and engender a military confrontation. In such a scenario, Israel will not be alone, with the Biden administration obligated to provide support.
Alternatively, if Tehran decides to wage a limited proxy war – including by using Lebanon as a pawn – none of the global powers will rush in to salvage the situation. Lebanon, after all, is not a priority for them.
The Natanz attack has got some JCPOA signatories worried.
It seems to have limited Russia’s leverage over Iran, its ally. For a while, Moscow has sought to contain Israel-Iran tensions. But at this juncture, it does not want to complicate its relations with Tehran and may end up accommodating whatever decision the latter adopts. At the same time, reviving JCPOA is also in Russia’s interests and Moscow is trying to convince Tehran not to increase uranium enrichment. Iran’s other ally, China, has also called for talks to continue, as have the Europeans.
Tehran's response so far suggests its need for sanctions to be lifted is of higher priority than its temptation to retaliate
Complicating the Vienna talks are the fraying relations between some signatories.
The Biden administration's equation with Kremlin, in particular, is deteriorating rapidly. Mutual sanctions and the expulsion of diplomats have raised tensions, despite the leaders of the two countries speaking to each other – and despite Washington's call for a US-Russia summit in June or July. Washington imposed sanctions on Moscow in response to its alleged meddling in the 2020 US presidential election and its suspected role in major cyberattacks inside that country.
Moscow views sanctions on Russian treasury bonds as a declaration of economic war, given how much they could exacerbate the country's domestic debt, curtail its access to foreign currency, and complicate financial transactions with Europe, Canada and Japan. A furious Kremlin will, therefore, consider its own series of retaliations, which could include weapon sales to Iran in contravention of more US sanctions. It has also sent troops to its border with Ukraine, a development that has put Nato, a security alliance the US is an integral part of, on alert.
Amid all this drama, really, who can tell with absolute certainty what will happen in Vienna.
Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute and a columnist for The National
BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
The five pillars of Islam
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
David Haye record
Total fights: 32
Wins: 28
Wins by KO: 26
Losses: 4
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
How to wear a kandura
Dos
- Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
- Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
- Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
- Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester
Don’ts
- Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
- Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Squad
Ali Kasheif, Salim Rashid, Khalifa Al Hammadi, Khalfan Mubarak, Ali Mabkhout, Omar Abdulrahman, Mohammed Al Attas, Abdullah Ramadan, Zayed Al Ameri (Al Jazira), Mohammed Al Shamsi, Hamdan Al Kamali, Mohammed Barghash, Khalil Al Hammadi (Al Wahda), Khalid Essa, Mohammed Shaker, Ahmed Barman, Bandar Al Ahbabi (Al Ain), Al Hassan Saleh, Majid Suroor (Sharjah) Walid Abbas, Ahmed Khalil (Shabab Al Ahli), Tariq Ahmed, Jasim Yaqoub (Al Nasr), Ali Saleh, Ali Salmeen (Al Wasl), Hassan Al Muharami (Baniyas)
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
MATCH INFO
What: Brazil v South Korea
When: Tonight, 5.30pm
Where: Mohamed bin Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi
Tickets: www.ticketmaster.ae
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Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
Cricket World Cup League 2
UAE squad
Rahul Chopra (captain), Aayan Afzal Khan, Ali Naseer, Aryansh Sharma, Basil Hameed, Dhruv Parashar, Junaid Siddique, Muhammad Farooq, Muhammad Jawadullah, Muhammad Waseem, Omid Rahman, Rahul Bhatia, Tanish Suri, Vishnu Sukumaran, Vriitya Aravind
Fixtures
Friday, November 1 – Oman v UAE
Sunday, November 3 – UAE v Netherlands
Thursday, November 7 – UAE v Oman
Saturday, November 9 – Netherlands v UAE
Singham Again
Director: Rohit Shetty
Stars: Ajay Devgn, Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ranveer Singh, Akshay Kumar, Tiger Shroff, Deepika Padukone
Rating: 3/5
UAE%20SQUAD
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If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.
When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.
How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Twin-turbocharged%204-litre%20V8%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E542bhp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E770Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEight-speed%20automatic%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh1%2C450%2C000%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Company profile
Name: Steppi
Founders: Joe Franklin and Milos Savic
Launched: February 2020
Size: 10,000 users by the end of July and a goal of 200,000 users by the end of the year
Employees: Five
Based: Jumeirah Lakes Towers, Dubai
Financing stage: Two seed rounds – the first sourced from angel investors and the founders' personal savings
Second round raised Dh720,000 from silent investors in June this year
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESmartCrowd%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2018%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESiddiq%20Farid%20and%20Musfique%20Ahmed%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%20%2F%20PropTech%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInitial%20investment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%24650%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2035%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeries%20A%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EVarious%20institutional%20investors%20and%20notable%20angel%20investors%20(500%20MENA%2C%20Shurooq%2C%20Mada%2C%20Seedstar%2C%20Tricap)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
In-demand jobs and monthly salaries
- Technology expert in robotics and automation: Dh20,000 to Dh40,000
- Energy engineer: Dh25,000 to Dh30,000
- Production engineer: Dh30,000 to Dh40,000
- Data-driven supply chain management professional: Dh30,000 to Dh50,000
- HR leader: Dh40,000 to Dh60,000
- Engineering leader: Dh30,000 to Dh55,000
- Project manager: Dh55,000 to Dh65,000
- Senior reservoir engineer: Dh40,000 to Dh55,000
- Senior drilling engineer: Dh38,000 to Dh46,000
- Senior process engineer: Dh28,000 to Dh38,000
- Senior maintenance engineer: Dh22,000 to Dh34,000
- Field engineer: Dh6,500 to Dh7,500
- Field supervisor: Dh9,000 to Dh12,000
- Field operator: Dh5,000 to Dh7,000
ELIO
Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett
Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
Rating: 4/5
The%20Super%20Mario%20Bros%20Movie
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Men from Barca's class of 99
Crystal Palace - Frank de Boer
Everton - Ronald Koeman
Manchester City - Pep Guardiola
Manchester United - Jose Mourinho
Southampton - Mauricio Pellegrino
The specs
Engine: 3.8-litre twin-turbo V8
Power: 611bhp
Torque: 620Nm
Transmission: seven-speed automatic
Price: upon application
On sale: now
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The specs: 2018 Infiniti QX80
Price: base / as tested: Dh335,000
Engine: 5.6-litre V8
Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 400hp @ 5,800rpm
Torque: 560Nm @ 4,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.1L / 100km
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Cricket World Cup League Two
Teams
Oman, UAE, Namibia
Al Amerat, Muscat
Results
Oman beat UAE by five wickets
UAE beat Namibia by eight runs
Namibia beat Oman by 52 runs
UAE beat Namibia by eight wickets
Fixtures
Saturday January 11 - UAE v Oman
Sunday January 12 – Oman v Namibia
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
What is the FNC?
The Federal National Council is one of five federal authorities established by the UAE constitution. It held its first session on December 2, 1972, a year to the day after Federation.
It has 40 members, eight of whom are women. The members represent the UAE population through each of the emirates. Abu Dhabi and Dubai have eight members each, Sharjah and Ras al Khaimah six, and Ajman, Fujairah and Umm Al Quwain have four.
They bring Emirati issues to the council for debate and put those concerns to ministers summoned for questioning.
The FNC’s main functions include passing, amending or rejecting federal draft laws, discussing international treaties and agreements, and offering recommendations on general subjects raised during sessions.
Federal draft laws must first pass through the FNC for recommendations when members can amend the laws to suit the needs of citizens. The draft laws are then forwarded to the Cabinet for consideration and approval.
Since 2006, half of the members have been elected by UAE citizens to serve four-year terms and the other half are appointed by the Ruler’s Courts of the seven emirates.
In the 2015 elections, 78 of the 252 candidates were women. Women also represented 48 per cent of all voters and 67 per cent of the voters were under the age of 40.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Other acts on the Jazz Garden bill
Sharrie Williams
The American singer is hugely respected in blues circles due to her passionate vocals and songwriting. Born and raised in Michigan, Williams began recording and touring as a teenage gospel singer. Her career took off with the blues band The Wiseguys. Such was the acclaim of their live shows that they toured throughout Europe and in Africa. As a solo artist, Williams has also collaborated with the likes of the late Dizzy Gillespie, Van Morrison and Mavis Staples.
Lin Rountree
An accomplished smooth jazz artist who blends his chilled approach with R‘n’B. Trained at the Duke Ellington School of the Arts in Washington, DC, Rountree formed his own band in 2004. He has also recorded with the likes of Kem, Dwele and Conya Doss. He comes to Dubai on the back of his new single Pass The Groove, from his forthcoming 2018 album Stronger Still, which may follow his five previous solo albums in cracking the top 10 of the US jazz charts.
Anita Williams
Dubai-based singer Anita Williams will open the night with a set of covers and swing, jazz and blues standards that made her an in-demand singer across the emirate. The Irish singer has been performing in Dubai since 2008 at venues such as MusicHall and Voda Bar. Her Jazz Garden appearance is career highlight as she will use the event to perform the original song Big Blue Eyes, the single from her debut solo album, due for release soon.
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
UAE%20v%20West%20Indies
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