Talks between the US and North Korea are, if you believe the pessimists, doomed before they even start. Friday's meeting between the north's Kim Jong-un and the south's Moon Jae-in are just part of an elaborate ploy by "Rocket Man", as US President Donald Trump once called him, to lure his gullible interlocutors into thinking he is serious about negotiating away his nuclear arsenal.
In fact, they say, he is just playing for time. The Kim dynasty is not to be trusted. They've reneged on their promises in the past. And the US president is showing his naivete in international relations by assuming that his bellicose tweets could win him the deal that eluded his more experienced predecessors.
Perhaps. But to be overly hawkish about this before Mr Trump and Mr Kim have even sat down together would indeed render the talks pointless. Perhaps there is a deal available. It just might not be the one it is generally assumed it has to be.
For what can the world reasonably expect Mr Kim to concede? If he agrees to stop work on his nuclear programme and to desist from testing ballistic missiles, both permanently, that would be a significant advance. If he was willing to sign a peace treaty with the south (the Korean War was ended by an armistice, which is just a cessation in hostilities), that would too. And if he was happy to begin opening up his hermit kingdom so that his countrymen could begin to benefit from the advances of the 20th century – never mind the 21st – that would also be most welcome.
What is unreasonable is to expect Mr Kim to give up the only trump card he possesses – his nuclear capability. The naysayers would then object that denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula is the whole point of the talks. But is it? Surely peace and the removal of a threat from a rogue regime would be almost as great an outcome?
The spectre of the late colonel Muammar Gaddafi hangs heavy over these talks. In 2003, the Libyan leader agreed to get rid of his stockpile of weapons of mass destruction and end his country’s own nuclear programme. He thought he was then on good terms with the West – and with good reason. The then British prime minister Tony Blair visited him the following year, publicly shook hands with Qaddafi in an encampment outside Tripoli and declared that he had "real hope" for a new relationship Libya. The US sent an assistant secretary of state; American and UN sanctions on the country were lifted.
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Read more from Sholto Byrnes:
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With Brexit looming, Britain is looking for new Commonwealth allies
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As a former state department official involved in the negotiations wrote at the time: “The lesson is incontrovertible: to persuade a rogue regime to give up its weapons of mass destruction, we must not only apply pressure but also make clear the potential benefits of cooperation.”
Only seven years later, however, Gaddafi was dead, having been shot during an uprising against his rule – an uprising whose success was ensured by military support from his former friends, the US, France and Britain.
So Mr Kim has learned another lesson: give up your insurance policy at your peril. Which is why he would be the one showing incomprehensible naivete if he did agree to surrender his nuclear arsenal. What guarantee would he have that his new friends might not turn against him, just as they turned against the self-proclaimed “dean of the Arab rulers, the king of kings of Africa and the imam of Muslims”?
Who, in any case, would force him to denuclearise? China will only exert so much economic pressure on their wayward client state because they fear the chaos that would follow if the regime collapsed. Moreover in that event, unless Beijing was willing to intervene militarily, the Korean peninsula would then likely be dominated by the South and China would not welcome a US defence partner on its doorstep.
Despite Mr Trump’s past threats, nobody sensible in the US – certainly not Defence Secretary Jim Mattis and probably not even the warlike duo of soon-to-be Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and National Security Adviser John Bolton – believes you can have either a limited attack on Pyongyang or a knockout blitzkrieg that would not lead to the deaths of hundreds of thousands – and possibly millions – in the two Koreas. And that would leave US promises of protection and alliance in tatters.
So let's be pragmatic about what is possible and accept that we're going to have to accept something that we hitherto found unacceptable – a North Korea with successfully developed nuclear technology.
Once that mental hurdle is cleared, so much is possible. Mr Kim might be willing to submit to an advanced inspection and monitoring regime. His commitments not to expand these programmes any further have already been given. A hotline has recently been installed to link the leaders of the two Koreas, both of whom have said they want to row back from the brink of confrontation. If these meetings can lead to the beginning of a meaningful peace process, would that not be worth a great deal?
A pragmatist or a realist would say yes. It's also more or less the conclusion that long-term observers of North Korea like former US president Jimmy Carter and the eminent Singaporean diplomat Bilahari Kausikan have come to. Mr Trump is unfettered by the promises and assumptions of his predecessors and he likes to think of himself as the ultimate deal-maker. A historic deal may well be there to be made and Mr Trump could be the one to make it – if only he is pragmatic enough not to insist the impossible of Mr Kim.
Sholto Byrnes is a senior fellow at the Institute of Strategic and International Studies Malaysia
The biog
Hometown: Birchgrove, Sydney Australia
Age: 59
Favourite TV series: Outlander Netflix series
Favourite place in the UAE: Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque / desert / Louvre Abu Dhabi
Favourite book: Father of our Nation: Collected Quotes of Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan
Thing you will miss most about the UAE: My friends and family, Formula 1, having Friday's off, desert adventures, and Arabic culture and people
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BIGGEST CYBER SECURITY INCIDENTS IN RECENT TIMES
SolarWinds supply chain attack: Came to light in December 2020 but had taken root for several months, compromising major tech companies, governments and its entities
Microsoft Exchange server exploitation: March 2021; attackers used a vulnerability to steal emails
Kaseya attack: July 2021; ransomware hit perpetrated REvil, resulting in severe downtime for more than 1,000 companies
Log4j breach: December 2021; attackers exploited the Java-written code to inflitrate businesses and governments
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
A list of the animal rescue organisations in the UAE
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
ICC Women's T20 World Cup Asia Qualifier 2025, Thailand
UAE fixtures
May 9, v Malaysia
May 10, v Qatar
May 13, v Malaysia
May 15, v Qatar
May 18 and 19, semi-finals
May 20, final
How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
- Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
- Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
- Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
- Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
- Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
- The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
- Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269
*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Freezer tips
- Always make sure food is completely cool before freezing.
- If you’re cooking in large batches, divide into either family-sized or individual portions to freeze.
- Ensure the food is well wrapped in foil or cling film. Even better, store in fully sealable, labelled containers or zip-lock freezer bags.
- The easiest and safest way to defrost items such as the stews and sauces mentioned is to do so in the fridge for several hours or overnight.
MATCH INFO
Tottenham Hotspur 3 (Son 1', Kane 8' & 16') West Ham United 3 (Balbuena 82', Sanchez og 85', Lanzini 90' 4)
Man of the match Harry Kane
The specs
Engine: four-litre V6 and 3.5-litre V6 twin-turbo
Transmission: six-speed and 10-speed
Power: 271 and 409 horsepower
Torque: 385 and 650Nm
Price: from Dh229,900 to Dh355,000
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At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
Gothia Cup 2025
4,872 matches
1,942 teams
116 pitches
76 nations
26 UAE teams
15 Lebanese teams
2 Kuwaiti teams
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
The years Ramadan fell in May
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
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The specs
Engine: 2.3-litre, turbo four-cylinder
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Power: 300hp
Torque: 420Nm
Price: Dh189,900
On sale: now
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Zayed Sustainability Prize
MATCH INFO
Liverpool v Manchester City, Sunday, 8.30pm UAE
Scream%20VI
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The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Background: Chemical Weapons
if you go
The flights
Air Astana flies direct from Dubai to Almaty from Dh2,440 per person return, and to Astana (via Almaty) from Dh2,930 return, both including taxes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Ritz-Carlton Almaty cost from Dh1,944 per night including taxes; and in Astana the new Ritz-Carlton Astana (www.marriott) costs from Dh1,325; alternatively, the new St Regis Astana costs from Dh1,458 per night including taxes.
When to visit
March-May and September-November
Visas
Citizens of many countries, including the UAE do not need a visa to enter Kazakhstan for up to 30 days. Contact the nearest Kazakhstan embassy or consulate.
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions