Italian politics has for decades been seen abroad as more about theatre than policy. In the Cold War years, prime ministers changed with bewildering speed, brought down by scandal or political manipulation and yet the government remained the same.
More recently, Italy has given the world Silvio Berlusconi, its longest serving post-war prime minister, who is a precursor of Donald Trump: a mega-rich businessman whose provocative comments convinced a good part of the electorate that he was a man of the people.
All along, behind the political theatre, some of Italy’s best brains have served in the Treasury and Central Bank to manage the country’s ballooning debt and maintain the trust of foreign creditors. So while the state has never quite functioned as it should, life has continued.
So it is not surprising that Italy’s current political crisis did not immediately shake faith in the country’s credit. A further source of stability is what might be described in another country as the “deep state” which kicks into action if the politicians’ tendency to commit arson with the public finances gets out of hand.
This was most clearly seen in 2011 when the scandal-hit Mr Berlusconi was replaced by Mario Monti, an economist and former European Commissioner. Technocratic caretaker prime ministers are part of the tissue of Italian politics.
This “deep state” is not made up of generals or the police. Since Italy’s adoption of the euro in 1999, its influence has filtered down from the president of the European Central Bank – who, as it happens, is currently an Italian, Mario Draghi – to the Italian president who, although a figurehead, has broad powers to nominate prime ministers and reject ministerial candidates.
The Italian political class does not resent this interference. Rather, it sees the euro – the guiding principle of which is German penny-pinching – as a necessary straitjacket to restrain the high-spending populist urges which saddled Italy with so much debt in the 1980s. The high taxes that Italians need to pay are now blamed on the Brussels and Germany, leading to an ever rising tide of anti-European Union feeling.
This culminated in the March elections when the political centre was crushed by an unruly majority of Eurosceptic parties, including the upstart anti-establishment Five Star Movement, which is strong in the impoverished south and the far-right League, originally a separatist movement based in the wealthier north.
Despite their obvious incompatibility – the League insisted on cutting taxes while Five Star wanted an impossibly costly guaranteed income for all – they got close to forming a government. But the Italian President Sergio Mattarella vetoed the appointment of a renowned opponent of Italy’s euro membership, Paolo Savona, as finance minister.
Mr Mattarella said the appointment would endanger the savings of Italians by causing a sell-off of Italian bonds and was unjustified because the issue of leaving the euro had not been in the parties’ manifestos.
The governor of the Italian central bank, Ignazio Visco, weighed in with a dramatic warning that "we are only ever a few steps away from the very serious risk of losing the irreplaceable asset of trust" with the country's creditors.
The thwarted populist parties blamed the unholy trinity of Brussels, Berlin and the bond markets for the collapse of their government. The president promptly proposed someone who looks like the dream candidate of the "deep state", former International Monetary Fund economist Carlo Cottarelli, as caretaker prime minister.
But this choice of a globally minded technocrat is so out of tune with the way the Italians voted that it seems unlikely he could ever be approved by parliament, an impasse which might have to be broken by new elections as early as July.
There is widespread speculation that League leader Matteo Salvini insisted on the choice of Mr Savona in the hope of provoking early elections. The opinion polls suggest he would do even better than in March. The leftist former prime minister Massimo D’Alema predicted in an unguarded moment that a League-Five Star alliance could win 80 per cent of the vote in a snap election.
For the rest of Europe, that would mean the barbarians had breached the walls of Rome.
In any case, the old way of doing things has run its course. Italy has been stuck in low growth for years and its brightest young people are all leaving.
French President Emmanuel Macron's grand plans for completing the half-built edifice of the euro are going nowhere. The systemic instability caused by Italian politics will only increase the reluctance of northern European states such as Germany and the Netherlands to take responsibility for the debts of more profligate countries.
Will Italy ever leave the euro? Joining it is a one-way street: there is no mechanism for quitting and no one has ever done so. It was mooted during the Greek crisis but that is a much smaller economy than Italy’s –the third largest in Europe and the eighth in the world.
The consequences of leaving would be huge, not only for banks around the world but also for Italian savers and taxpayers.
At this stage, 59 per cent of Italians are still in favour of the euro. If the League and Five Star actually form a government or fight a new election, they will need to clarify their policies on the euro. Do they want to bring the whole edifice crashing down?
They may heed the lesson of the National Front in France, which alienated some of its risk-averse voters by calling for exit from the euro.
Or maybe they are more interested in remaking Italian politics and showing Brussels and Berlin that Italy’s concerns can no longer be ignored by its EU partners. In any case, the trend of Italian politics is now firmly set for confrontation with the EU on the core issues of fiscal discipline and migration.
Alan Philps is editor of The World Today, the Chatham House magazine of international affairs
Quick%20facts
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The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
FINAL RESULT
Sharjah Wanderers 20 Dubai Tigers 25 (After extra-time)
Wanderers
Tries: Gormley, Penalty
cons: Flaherty
Pens: Flaherty 2
Tigers
Tries: O’Donnell, Gibbons, Kelly
Cons: Caldwell 2
Pens: Caldwell, Cross
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
Where to buy
Limited-edition art prints of The Sofa Series: Sultani can be acquired from Reem El Mutwalli at www.reemelmutwalli.com
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
The Bio
Favourite place in UAE: Al Rams pearling village
What one book should everyone read: Any book written before electricity was invented. When a writer willingly worked under candlelight, you know he/she had a real passion for their craft
Your favourite type of pearl: All of them. No pearl looks the same and each carries its own unique characteristics, like humans
Best time to swim in the sea: When there is enough light to see beneath the surface
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Sarfira
Director: Sudha Kongara Prasad
Starring: Akshay Kumar, Radhika Madan, Paresh Rawal
Rating: 2/5
Mountain%20Boy
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GOLF’S RAHMBO
- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)
FIGHT CARD
1. Featherweight 66kg
Ben Lucas (AUS) v Ibrahim Kendil (EGY)
2. Lightweight 70kg
Mohammed Kareem Aljnan (SYR) v Alphonse Besala (CMR)
3. Welterweight 77kg
Marcos Costa (BRA) v Abdelhakim Wahid (MAR)
4. Lightweight 70kg
Omar Ramadan (EGY) v Abdimitalipov Atabek (KGZ)
5. Featherweight 66kg
Ahmed Al Darmaki (UAE) v Kagimu Kigga (UGA)
6. Catchweight 85kg
Ibrahim El Sawi (EGY) v Iuri Fraga (BRA)
7. Featherweight 66kg
Yousef Al Husani (UAE) v Mohamed Allam (EGY)
8. Catchweight 73kg
Mostafa Radi (PAL) v Abdipatta Abdizhali (KGZ)
9. Featherweight 66kg
Jaures Dea (CMR) v Andre Pinheiro (BRA)
10. Catchweight 90kg
Tarek Suleiman (SYR) v Juscelino Ferreira (BRA)
Kanguva
Director: Siva
Stars: Suriya, Bobby Deol, Disha Patani, Yogi Babu, Redin Kingsley
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
Wonka
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Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
The biog
Name: Atheja Ali Busaibah
Date of birth: 15 November, 1951
Favourite books: Ihsan Abdel Quddous books, such as “The Sun will Never Set”
Hobbies: Reading and writing poetry
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Company profile
Name: Infinite8
Based: Dubai
Launch year: 2017
Number of employees: 90
Sector: Online gaming industry
Funding: $1.2m from a UAE angel investor
Dengue%20fever%20symptoms
%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3EHigh%20fever%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EIntense%20pain%20behind%20your%20eyes%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3ESevere%20headache%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EMuscle%20and%20joint%20pains%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3ENausea%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EVomiting%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3ESwollen%20glands%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3ERash%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A%3Cp%3EIf%20symptoms%20occur%2C%20they%20usually%20last%20for%20two-seven%20days%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
HER%20FIRST%20PALESTINIAN
%3Cp%3EAuthor%3A%20Saeed%20Teebi%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EPages%3A%20256%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EPublisher%3A%C2%A0House%20of%20Anansi%20Press%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Emergency
Director: Kangana Ranaut
Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry
Rating: 2/5
Heather, the Totality
Matthew Weiner,
Canongate
Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
In-demand jobs and monthly salaries
- Technology expert in robotics and automation: Dh20,000 to Dh40,000
- Energy engineer: Dh25,000 to Dh30,000
- Production engineer: Dh30,000 to Dh40,000
- Data-driven supply chain management professional: Dh30,000 to Dh50,000
- HR leader: Dh40,000 to Dh60,000
- Engineering leader: Dh30,000 to Dh55,000
- Project manager: Dh55,000 to Dh65,000
- Senior reservoir engineer: Dh40,000 to Dh55,000
- Senior drilling engineer: Dh38,000 to Dh46,000
- Senior process engineer: Dh28,000 to Dh38,000
- Senior maintenance engineer: Dh22,000 to Dh34,000
- Field engineer: Dh6,500 to Dh7,500
- Field supervisor: Dh9,000 to Dh12,000
- Field operator: Dh5,000 to Dh7,000
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
How to donate
Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
2289 – Dh10
2252 – Dh 50
6025 – Dh20
6027 – Dh 100
6026 – Dh 200
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
