For observers focusing on Iraq, the following argument often made in Washington’s policy circles about the future of the country might be a familiar one: the political system in Baghdad, put in place by the United States in 2003, has finally a real chance to be consolidated, resulting in more stability than at any other time over the past 15 years.
According to those advocating the argument, the war against ISIL has created a reality in which the Shia majority is now more able than ever to control all of the country. The argument attributes instability in Iraq over the years to Sunni rejectionist politics. Sunni rejectionism, to proponents of the idea, has created space for groups such as ISIL throughout Iraq and led to political stagnation in Baghdad.
Today, they argue, the situation has changed dramatically. Sunni rejectionists, often used as a shorthand for any person opposed to the Shia dominance in Baghdad, have been crushed. Sunnis, according to the argument, lost the bet they had placed on the rise of ISIL in the summer of 2014 to reclaim a larger place for themselves in Iraqi politics. The result is an empowered majority that could potentially take its rightful place as the leaders of Iraq.
The implication of the argument, which has been cited to the author by officials in Washington as an idea often advanced by Iraqis, is that the US must focus on supporting the historic chance rather than instating demands for political reforms that could only add to the stagnation. The idea also appeals to the basic political instincts of any official who wishes that the moment of a true “mission accomplished” is finally in the horizon.
But this is a dangerous argument. The narrative is based on a flawed logic as well as a tendency to overstate the ability of the Shia majority to sustain order beyond the relative calm that naturally follows extreme violence. It is simply a shortsighted and incomplete view that mischaracterises the situation in Iraq.
First, the argument oversells the military victory against ISIL, echoing pronouncements of victory in Baghdad that have proven premature in recent weeks. Generalisations based on often temporary calm that follows major battles, which result in one side losing militarily, are frequently made in Iraq. An obvious example were the years that followed the defeat of ISIL’s predecessor in 2008, the Islamic State of Iraq, when similar statements were made by American and Iraqi officials: that the group was widely discredited, had broken apart and would not be able to find sanctuary within Iraqi communities.
As ISIL lost Mosul and Anbar, ordinary Iraqis were led to think that the group was finished, only to see a surge of attacks or signs of recovery in the early weeks of this year. The popular backlash led Prime Minister Haider Al Abadi to accuse his political opponents of amplifying terror attacks to score gains in the upcoming election.
As per ISIL's own publications, initial periods of inactivity in areas liberated by government forces usually include what the group refers to as a process of "rasd", or scoping. Militants or sleeper cells who remain in the area would attempt to familiarise themselves with the terrain after pro-government forces have seized it. They would look for gaps and learn the habits and routine of these forces before they launch their well-advertised campaign of attrition, referred to as "nikaya".
This process is already in place in much of Iraq. It can be discerned in areas from which the group had been expelled early on, such as in Diayala and Salahaddin, or where security gaps have been created, such as in Kirkuk. Senior officials in Washington recognise that militants still operate in areas officially announced as liberated, such as in the Syrian city of Abu Kamal in Deir Ezzor province.
These patterns are expected to increase, not decrease, with time. Indications suggest the group is overcoming the disruptive period that accompanied the military momentum, with hundreds of its fighters reportedly moved to safe areas in neighbouring countries as well as other parts of Syria and Iraq. It will be a matter of time before the militants, having learned the patterns of their enemies, will begin to return to vulnerable areas to reconstitute themselves.
Politically, much of the argument about an ascendent majority and a crushed minority is speculative. Advocates of this narrative cite as evidence the desperation of Sunni civilians who merely wish to return to their areas and find a corner in their destroyed house to sleep. This is sometimes undeniably true. But desperation to return to one’s home, to bury the dead or to open a shop to make a living should not be mistaken for acceptance of those in charge.
In an interview in late 2016, former prime minister Nouri Al Maliki echoed this argument. He said Shia people should now manufacture a new political class of Sunnis, consisting of those who worked with the Shia during the campaign against ISIL and should reject the return of other Sunnis who traditionally opposed their rule in Baghdad. To him, only those who accept being political subordinates to a majority should be welcome in the system.
The narrative also overlooks the pivotal role of the US air force in the defeat of ISIL. Iraqi security forces have come a long way since the embarrassing defeat in 2014 and are better prepared to repel attacks against key places like Baghdad. But they are far from being able to secure all of Iraq. This shortcoming will undoubtedly become more apparent with time.
Fifteen years after the invasion of Iraq, shortsighted arguments that mischaracterise and simplify the upheavals that Iraqis of all stripes have gone through only promise to perpetuate the suffering. Policymakers in Washington would do better to favour the lessons of history over wishful thinking based on temporary impressions.
Hassan Hassan is co-author of the New York Times bestseller ISIS: Inside the Army of Terror and a senior fellow at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy, Washington DC
The specs
Engine: 3.8-litre V6
Power: 295hp at 6,000rpm
Torque: 355Nm at 5,200rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.7L/100km
Price: Dh179,999-plus
On sale: now
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE
Starring: Ryan Reynolds, Hugh Jackman, Emma Corrin
Director: Shawn Levy
Rating: 3/5
Fifa Club World Cup:
When: December 6-16
Where: Games to take place at Zayed Sports City in Abu Dhabi and Hazza bin Zayed Stadium in Al Ain
Defending champions: Real Madrid
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
heading
Iran has sent five planeloads of food to Qatar, which is suffering shortages amid a regional blockade.
A number of nations, including Iran's major rival Saudi Arabia, last week cut ties with Qatar, accusing it of funding terrorism, charges it denies.
The land border with Saudi Arabia, through which 40% of Qatar's food comes, has been closed.
Meanwhile, mediators Kuwait said that Qatar was ready to listen to the "qualms" of its neighbours.
BABYLON
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Damien%20Chazelle%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStars%3A%20Brad%20Pitt%2C%20Margot%20Robbie%2C%20Jean%20Smart%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDate%20started%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202020%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Khaldoon%20Bushnaq%20and%20Tariq%20Seksek%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Abu%20Dhabi%20Global%20Market%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20HealthTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20100%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%20to%20date%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2415%20million%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The five pillars of Islam
The five pillars of Islam
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
The%20specs%3A%202024%20Mercedes%20E200
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.0-litre%20four-cyl%20turbo%20%2B%20mild%20hybrid%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E204hp%20at%205%2C800rpm%20%2B23hp%20hybrid%20boost%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E320Nm%20at%201%2C800rpm%20%2B205Nm%20hybrid%20boost%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E9-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E7.3L%2F100km%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENovember%2FDecember%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh205%2C000%20(estimate)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Why your domicile status is important
Your UK residence status is assessed using the statutory residence test. While your residence status – ie where you live - is assessed every year, your domicile status is assessed over your lifetime.
Your domicile of origin generally comes from your parents and if your parents were not married, then it is decided by your father. Your domicile is generally the country your father considered his permanent home when you were born.
UK residents who have their permanent home ("domicile") outside the UK may not have to pay UK tax on foreign income. For example, they do not pay tax on foreign income or gains if they are less than £2,000 in the tax year and do not transfer that gain to a UK bank account.
A UK-domiciled person, however, is liable for UK tax on their worldwide income and gains when they are resident in the UK.
How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Zodi%20%26%20Tehu%3A%20Princes%20Of%20The%20Desert
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEric%20Barbier%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EYoussef%20Hajdi%2C%20Nadia%20Benzakour%2C%20Yasser%20Drief%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Roll%20of%20Honour%2C%20men%E2%80%99s%20domestic%20rugby%20season
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EWest%20Asia%20Premiership%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Tigers%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Bahrain%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20Premiership%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Jebel%20Ali%20Dragons%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Dubai%20Hurricanes%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20Division%201%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Sharks%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Abu%20Dhabi%20Harlequins%20II%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20Division%202%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Tigers%20III%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Dubai%20Sharks%20II%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDubai%20Sevens%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Tigers%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Dubai%20Hurricanes%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
THE%20HOLDOVERS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAlexander%20Payne%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Paul%20Giamatti%2C%20Da'Vine%20Joy%20Randolph%2C%20Dominic%20Sessa%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
%20Ramez%20Gab%20Min%20El%20Akher
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECreator%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ramez%20Galal%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ramez%20Galal%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStreaming%20on%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMBC%20Shahid%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Honeymoonish
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Elie%20El%20Samaan%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENour%20Al%20Ghandour%2C%20Mahmoud%20Boushahri%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A