As US and European diplomats were exploring ways for Iran and the US to return to the nuclear deal they signed in 2015, the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, decided to grab more leverage. On February 7, he issued a “final and irreversible” decision for Iran not to return to the deal until Washington lifts all sanctions. He also gave his assent to the expansion of Iran’s nuclear activities.
During the recent US presidential election, Mr Khamenei placed great confidence in the promise of Democratic candidate Joe Biden and his prospective team to move quickly to rejoin the 2015 nuclear deal in the event that he won. But although Mr Biden was elected, Mr Khamenei’s ploy has changed Washington’s calculus, and botched the carefully thought-through plans of diplomats and others on both sides of the Atlantic and in Iran. Conversations and discussions are continuing, but the track ahead looks tension-ridden, slow-paced and uncertain.
Is Mr Biden able to resolve the US’s Iran dilemma, a feat pursued unsuccessfully by seven presidents before him? It is doubtful that a new nuclear deal today will change Tehran’s malign strategic trajectory. Still, Washington’s foreign policy machinery has instruments and expertise at its disposal to manoeuvre concurrently to resolve the puzzle. It takes a fresh perspective from the Biden administration.
In 2015, the deal was heralded as a win-win situation for the international community and the Iranian people. The relaxation of sanctions opened the door for the flow of more than $100 billion worth of oil revenues into the Iranian system. Were the proceeds allocated to curing the socio-economic problems of the country?
Special transfers to religious and ideological foundations, state companies, banks and for-profit organisations certainly continued, and the budget for the defence and security sectors increased. From July 2015, when the nuclear agreement was struck, to January 2017, nearly 110 deals worth at least $80bn were struck. And 90 were with companies owned or controlled by Iranian state entities, according to a Reuters report.
The regime also expanded its cyber capabilities. Between 2013 and 2017, the Islamic Republic Cyber Army stole more than 31 terabytes of documents and data from 144 US universities, 176 other universities in 21 countries and 47 domestic and foreign private sector companies. Public-sector victims include the US Department of Labour, the UN and Unicef.
In Iran public dissatisfaction and mistrust are at an all-time high
Government funds have also been dispensed to terrorist groups and other malevolent actors. Tehran allowed Al Qaeda to strengthen its operational presence in Iran. In a 2016 broadcast, Hassan Nasrallah, the head of the Lebanese militant organisation Hezbollah, confirmed that his group's "budget, income, expenses, everything it eats and drinks, its weapons and rockets, come from the Islamic Republic of Iran". By 2018, Tehran was spending at least $6bn annually on maintaining Bashar Al Assad's government in Syria.
The absence of good governance is depleting Iran of its national wealth and resources. The chairman of Tehran’s Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture estimates that between 2012 and 2020, $98bn of capital was taken out of the country.
Systemic theft, corruption, mismanagement and repression are leading Iran and its economy to ruin. The rise in poverty is crippling. According to a report published last June by the Iranian parliament's research centre, 70 per cent of the country's 40 million working-class households live under the poverty line. This group historically has formed the support base of the clerical regime. They are disenfranchised, angry, unemployed and hopeless.
Around 400 labour protests occurred in 2015, followed by nearly 350 in 2017 spiking to 900 in 2018. Public dissatisfaction and mistrust are at an all-time high. Widespread discontent has spread through every walk of life in Iran, including within the armed forces. Grievances are all around, against economic hardships, mismanagement, corruption, environmental disasters, Iran's involvement in regional conflicts and human rights violations.
Forty-two years after the revolution took hold in Iran, the deep divisions within the regime’s political and security apparatus are also being exposed.
Last week, the rivalry between Tehran’s intelligence ministry and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps was exposed on public airwaves. Iran’s Minister of Intelligence accused IRGC intelligence agents of infiltration and negligence by failing to prevent the assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, a scientist who ran the country’s nuclear programme, including its clandestine activities.
The following day, during a rally marking the anniversary of Iran's 1979 revolution, motorcycle units from the Basij, an IRGC auxiliary paramilitary group, chanted "Death to Rouhani [the name of Iran's elected president]", added to the usual "Death to the US'' and "Death to Israel". This kind of public showdown is unprecedented and telling.
Iranians and their theocratic regime are mired in an existential struggle between two mutually exclusive outlooks. For Mr Khamenei and his fellow clerics and conservative politicians, Iran is a vehicle for a so-called Islamic revolution globally. For Iranians, it is a country in desperate need of a functioning economy and peace, both inside and outside.
Mr Biden has recommitted the US to a foreign policy centred on democracy, human rights and equality. He has placed the revitalisation of democracy at the forefront of his agenda. His plan prioritises three areas tailor-made for Iran: fighting corruption; defending against authoritarianism and advancing human rights. Iranians need maximum support in order to realise any of these things.
Doing so requires a fresh, integrated approach between various disciplines and foreign policy instruments in the US and Europe. Importantly, it also requires the participation of credible Iranian experts and stakeholders to make timely use of ways and means necessary to support Iran’s people.
They can start by exploring how the US and Europe could facilitate a free internet for Iran. In 2019, when protests erupted in 100 towns and cities in Iran over a sudden fuel price hike, the regime cut 80 million Iranians' internet access to the rest of the world for one week. Under the shadow of darkness, the regime's security forces killed over 1,000 and detained thousands more. It was the deadliest street violence since the 1979 Islamic revolution.
One month before his election, President Biden promised he would defend the right of activists, political dissidents and journalists worldwide to speak their minds freely without fear of persecution and violence. Iran is a crucial test for that vision and whether he will seize his opportunity to resolve the US’s Iran dilemma.
Nazenin Ansari is a British-Iranian journalist and editor of Kayhan London (Persian) and Kayhan Life (English)
Tickets
Tickets start at Dh100 for adults, while children can enter free on the opening day. For more information, visit www.mubadalawtc.com.
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Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Company%20profile
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Fitness problems in men's tennis
Andy Murray - hip
Novak Djokovic - elbow
Roger Federer - back
Stan Wawrinka - knee
Kei Nishikori - wrist
Marin Cilic - adductor
The specs: 2019 Mercedes-Benz GLE
Price, base / as tested Dh274,000 (estimate)
Engine 3.0-litre inline six-cylinder
Gearbox Nine-speed automatic
Power 245hp @ 4,200rpm
Torque 500Nm @ 1,600rpm
Fuel economy, combined 6.4L / 100km
The years Ramadan fell in May
Match info:
Real Betis v Sevilla, 10.45pm (UAE)
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
'Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore'
Rating: 3/5
Directed by: David Yates
Starring: Mads Mikkelson, Eddie Redmayne, Ezra Miller, Jude Law
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More coverage from the Future Forum
The years Ramadan fell in May
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
A Cat, A Man, and Two Women
Junichiro Tamizaki
Translated by Paul McCarthy
Daunt Books
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
The five pillars of Islam
Schedule for Asia Cup
Sept 15: Bangladesh v Sri Lanka (Dubai)
Sept 16: Pakistan v Qualifier (Dubai)
Sept 17: Sri Lanka v Afghanistan (Abu Dhabi)
Sept 18: India v Qualifier (Dubai)
Sept 19: India v Pakistan (Dubai)
Sept 20: Bangladesh v Afghanistan (Abu Dhabi) Super Four
Sept 21: Group A Winner v Group B Runner-up (Dubai)
Sept 21: Group B Winner v Group A Runner-up (Abu Dhabi)
Sept 23: Group A Winner v Group A Runner-up (Dubai)
Sept 23: Group B Winner v Group B Runner-up (Abu Dhabi)
Sept 25: Group A Winner v Group B Winner (Dubai)
Sept 26: Group A Runner-up v Group B Runner-up (Abu Dhabi)
Sept 28: Final (Dubai)
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The five pillars of Islam
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Last five meetings
2013: South Korea 0-2 Brazil
2002: South Korea 2-3 Brazil
1999: South Korea 1-0 Brazil
1997: South Korea 1-2 Brazil
1995: South Korea 0-1 Brazil
Note: All friendlies
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
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Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
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Cinco in numbers
Dh3.7 million
The estimated cost of Victoria Swarovski’s gem-encrusted Michael Cinco wedding gown
46
The number, in kilograms, that Swarovski’s wedding gown weighed.
1,000
The hours it took to create Cinco’s vermillion petal gown, as seen in his atelier [note, is the one he’s playing with in the corner of a room]
50
How many looks Cinco has created in a new collection to celebrate Ballet Philippines’ 50th birthday
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The hours needed to create the butterfly gown worn by Aishwarya Rai to the 2018 Cannes Film Festival.
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KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
If you go:
The flights: Etihad, Emirates, British Airways and Virgin all fly from the UAE to London from Dh2,700 return, including taxes
The tours: The Tour for Muggles usually runs several times a day, lasts about two-and-a-half hours and costs £14 (Dh67)
Harry Potter and the Cursed Child is on now at the Palace Theatre. Tickets need booking significantly in advance
Entrance to the Harry Potter exhibition at the House of MinaLima is free
The hotel: The grand, 1909-built Strand Palace Hotel is in a handy location near the Theatre District and several of the key Harry Potter filming and inspiration sites. The family rooms are spacious, with sofa beds that can accommodate children, and wooden shutters that keep out the light at night. Rooms cost from £170 (Dh808).
Malcolm & Marie
Directed by: Sam Levinson
Starring: John David Washington and Zendaya
Three stars
Evacuations to France hit by controversy
- Over 500 Gazans have been evacuated to France since November 2023
- Evacuations were paused after a student already in France posted anti-Semitic content and was subsequently expelled to Qatar
- The Foreign Ministry launched a review to determine how authorities failed to detect the posts before her entry
- Artists and researchers fall under a programme called Pause that began in 2017
- It has benefited more than 700 people from 44 countries, including Syria, Turkey, Iran, and Sudan
- Since the start of the Gaza war, it has also included 45 Gazan beneficiaries
- Unlike students, they are allowed to bring their families to France
Farage on Muslim Brotherhood
Nigel Farage told Reform's annual conference that the party will proscribe the Muslim Brotherhood if he becomes Prime Minister.
"We will stop dangerous organisations with links to terrorism operating in our country," he said. "Quite why we've been so gutless about this – both Labour and Conservative – I don't know.
“All across the Middle East, countries have banned and proscribed the Muslim Brotherhood as a dangerous organisation. We will do the very same.”
It is 10 years since a ground-breaking report into the Muslim Brotherhood by Sir John Jenkins.
Among the former diplomat's findings was an assessment that “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” has “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
The prime minister at the time, David Cameron, who commissioned the report, said membership or association with the Muslim Brotherhood was a "possible indicator of extremism" but it would not be banned.
Dubai World Cup factbox
Most wins by a trainer: Godolphin’s Saeed bin Suroor(9)
Most wins by a jockey: Jerry Bailey(4)
Most wins by an owner: Godolphin(9)
Most wins by a horse: Godolphin’s Thunder Snow(2)
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
