Donald Trump's withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal could have an under-appreciated disruptive effect. The deal and the circumstances that led to it had long framed discussions about how the United States should handle the growing influence of Iran in the Middle East. Whether one agreed or disagreed with it, the deal existed as a cogent strategy for dealing with the Iranian threat.
The debate was restricted to a single motion, with two opposing camps. One camp was with it and the other was against it. Now that the deal is out of the way, as far as the US is concerned, serious discussions about an alternative policy could emerge. Indeed, if seen in the context of recent discussions in Washington and brewing changes in the Middle East, the move could widen the US aperture for how to approach Iran's expansion.
For now, the decision by Donald Trump to pull out was mostly personal. The American president summed up his intention by a key sentence during his speech yesterday: "When I make promises, I keep them." He had promised during his election campaign to withdraw from the deal and he delivered. Beyond that, a thought-out alternative strategy is still lacking.
After withdrawal, the US is poised to increase pressure on Iran through more sanctions. This scenario is hoped to punish the Iranian regime or to diminish its ability to provide for its citizens, which would in the process increase internal pressure against it. The Trump administration might find this path satisfactory, having undone Barack Obama’s single most important foreign policy achievement.
Or it could be pushed to do more. This scenario is particularly possible as the withdrawal comes amid a number of developments.
The first one is that Iran is increasingly becoming a problem for Israel in Syria. Frequent Israeli attacks against Iranian targets are symptomatic of growing fears in Israel as well as in the US about the future of Tehran's presence in Syria and other countries in the region. This fear also ties in with the US presence in eastern Syria, which generals and officials envision to remain for the foreseeable future.
Israel's attacks against Iranian targets will no doubt become the new norm in Syria, and the US policy will, at least in part, take the Israeli fears into account. There is even chatter among Syrians that such attacks could be welcome in some circles close to the regime in Damascus, as the war against Bashar Al Assad abates due to perceived Iranian dominance at the expense of the regime's traditional upper echelons.
Even before the withdrawal from the nuclear deal, policy discussions on Syria involved plans to counter Iran in the country. Such discussions were triggered by the chemical attack near Damascus and earlier remarks by Mr Trump about withdrawing from Syria. The deliberations that followed convinced the US president of baseline requirements to deal with Iran in Syria, short of a long-term occupation of the country.
_______________
Read more from Hassan Hassan:
Idlib is now in Ankara's crosshairs as it tries to secure its borders
How Qatar made a conscious decision to engage with extremist groups
We have not yet seen the full impact of ISIS sleeper cells coming back to life
_______________
The debate about Iran will likely continue to be shaped by the deal or its absence for some time. But it is possible that fresh thinking about Iran’s role in the region, especially given the heightened fears of the threats emanating from Iran and its proxies, might very well prompt a new approach to address these threats. The likely scenario is that Iran will face more coordinated pressure over the coming years, in a way that was not possible under a foreign policy shaped by the nuclear deal as a strategy to curb Iran’s ambitions.
Some of the misconceptions that were shaped by the former administration or circumstances in the past might similarly lose steam in the coming years. One major misconception is that Iran has leverage over the US, which was true when tens of thousands of American soldiers were present in Iraq. At the time, Iran had leverage because it had sought to undermine the US through a proxy war in Iraq.
Today, the reverse is true. The US has huge leverage over Iran, something the Israelis seem to understand more than American observers who are still shaped by the circumstances a decade ago. Unlike a decade ago, for instance, Iran would be dealt a heavy blow if an escalation against the US or Israel threatened its ally in Damascus. In Syria, Iran is in a similar situation as the US was in Iraq before the withdrawal in 2011. Today, the US could threaten vital Iranian interests through attacking the regime and other allies.
In other words, the stakes are higher for Iran today than ever before. Israelis understand that. On Monday, an Israeli cabinet minister said that Israel could "eliminate" Mr Al Assad if he allows Iranian forces to attack Israel from Syria. The official was reiterating similar remarks made by several Israeli officials last month, threatening to topple the regime in Damascus if Iran acted against Israel.
By contrast, the view that it was Iran that had leverage over American soldiers in eastern Syria persists. But that is simply a relic of the past, when American officials feared retaliation by Iran against the heavy presence in Iraq.
The view was right then but it is now largely outdated. Today, that view does not account for the realities of both Iraq and Syria, where Iran benefits from American disassociation to build its influence and increase its grip over the two countries and its proxies operating there. The former administration’s desire for a deal gave Iran additional leverage, which often involved a conscious decision to give Iran a free pass in countries like Syria.
Finally, the territorial defeat of ISIS in Syria and Iraq also comes in this context. The US is shifting from a focus on the militant group to considering a post-ISIS strategy for the region.
Taken together, and no matter what comes next, one benefit from the withdrawal from the nuclear deal will no doubt be to trigger new discussions about how to counter Iran’s expanding influence in the region. If they happen, these discussions will have to account for the new realities in Iran and the Middle East rather than revolve around an old reality that no longer exists.
Hassan Hassan is co-author of the New York Times bestseller ISIS: Inside the Army of Terror and a senior fellow at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy, Washington DC
Company Profile
Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million
'Midnights'
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EArtist%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Taylor%20Swift%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ELabel%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Republic%20Records%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20myZoi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202021%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Syed%20Ali%2C%20Christian%20Buchholz%2C%20Shanawaz%20Rouf%2C%20Arsalan%20Siddiqui%2C%20Nabid%20Hassan%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2037%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Initial%20undisclosed%20funding%20from%20SC%20Ventures%3B%20second%20round%20of%20funding%20totalling%20%2414%20million%20from%20a%20consortium%20of%20SBI%2C%20a%20Japanese%20VC%20firm%2C%20and%20SC%20Venture%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Email sent to Uber team from chief executive Dara Khosrowshahi
From: Dara
To: Team@
Date: March 25, 2019 at 11:45pm PT
Subj: Accelerating in the Middle East
Five years ago, Uber launched in the Middle East. It was the start of an incredible journey, with millions of riders and drivers finding new ways to move and work in a dynamic region that’s become so important to Uber. Now Pakistan is one of our fastest-growing markets in the world, women are driving with Uber across Saudi Arabia, and we chose Cairo to launch our first Uber Bus product late last year.
Today we are taking the next step in this journey—well, it’s more like a leap, and a big one: in a few minutes, we’ll announce that we’ve agreed to acquire Careem. Importantly, we intend to operate Careem independently, under the leadership of co-founder and current CEO Mudassir Sheikha. I’ve gotten to know both co-founders, Mudassir and Magnus Olsson, and what they have built is truly extraordinary. They are first-class entrepreneurs who share our platform vision and, like us, have launched a wide range of products—from digital payments to food delivery—to serve consumers.
I expect many of you will ask how we arrived at this structure, meaning allowing Careem to maintain an independent brand and operate separately. After careful consideration, we decided that this framework has the advantage of letting us build new products and try new ideas across not one, but two, strong brands, with strong operators within each. Over time, by integrating parts of our networks, we can operate more efficiently, achieve even lower wait times, expand new products like high-capacity vehicles and payments, and quicken the already remarkable pace of innovation in the region.
This acquisition is subject to regulatory approval in various countries, which we don’t expect before Q1 2020. Until then, nothing changes. And since both companies will continue to largely operate separately after the acquisition, very little will change in either teams’ day-to-day operations post-close. Today’s news is a testament to the incredible business our team has worked so hard to build.
It’s a great day for the Middle East, for the region’s thriving tech sector, for Careem, and for Uber.
Uber on,
Dara
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Director: Jon Watts
Stars: Tom Holland, Zendaya, Jacob Batalon
Rating:*****
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
Tuesday's fixtures
Kyrgyzstan v Qatar, 5.45pm
GOLF’S RAHMBO
- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EKinetic%207%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202018%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Rick%20Parish%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Abu%20Dhabi%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Clean%20cooking%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2410%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Self-funded%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
German intelligence warnings
- 2002: "Hezbollah supporters feared becoming a target of security services because of the effects of [9/11] ... discussions on Hezbollah policy moved from mosques into smaller circles in private homes." Supporters in Germany: 800
- 2013: "Financial and logistical support from Germany for Hezbollah in Lebanon supports the armed struggle against Israel ... Hezbollah supporters in Germany hold back from actions that would gain publicity." Supporters in Germany: 950
- 2023: "It must be reckoned with that Hezbollah will continue to plan terrorist actions outside the Middle East against Israel or Israeli interests." Supporters in Germany: 1,250
Source: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution
Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
Analysis
Members of Syria's Alawite minority community face threat in their heartland after one of the deadliest days in country’s recent history. Read more
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Akeed
Based: Muscat
Launch year: 2018
Number of employees: 40
Sector: Online food delivery
Funding: Raised $3.2m since inception
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
In numbers: China in Dubai
The number of Chinese people living in Dubai: An estimated 200,000
Number of Chinese people in International City: Almost 50,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2018/19: 120,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2010: 20,000
Percentage increase in visitors in eight years: 500 per cent
The%20Killer
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%C2%A0%3C%2Fstrong%3EDavid%20Fincher%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%C2%A0%3C%2Fstrong%3EMichael%20Fassbender%2C%20Tilda%20Swinton%2C%20Charles%20Parnell%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
MATCH INFO
Argentina 47 (Tries: Sanchez, Tuculet (2), Mallia (2), De La Fuente, Bertranou; Cons: Sanchez 5, Urdapilleta)
United States 17 (Tries: Scully (2), Lasike; Cons: MacGinty)
If you go:
The flights: Etihad, Emirates, British Airways and Virgin all fly from the UAE to London from Dh2,700 return, including taxes
The tours: The Tour for Muggles usually runs several times a day, lasts about two-and-a-half hours and costs £14 (Dh67)
Harry Potter and the Cursed Child is on now at the Palace Theatre. Tickets need booking significantly in advance
Entrance to the Harry Potter exhibition at the House of MinaLima is free
The hotel: The grand, 1909-built Strand Palace Hotel is in a handy location near the Theatre District and several of the key Harry Potter filming and inspiration sites. The family rooms are spacious, with sofa beds that can accommodate children, and wooden shutters that keep out the light at night. Rooms cost from £170 (Dh808).
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Herc's Adventures
Developer: Big Ape Productions
Publisher: LucasArts
Console: PlayStation 1 & 5, Sega Saturn
Rating: 4/5
