Imagine this. You see a photograph of a horse. A snapshot. This horse looks like it’s suspended in the air, hooves not touching the ground in mid-stride. Pure levitation.
This is one frame of the animal running at full speed. But with the understanding of movement removed, we only see and appreciate that particular moment.
That frame is what change often looks like.
We think of change as an end state that is different to the original state. For example, the horse reaching a finish line versus the start of the race. The transition to an end state is made up of an infinite number of micro-changes, so small that they are not noticeable. The horse in that photo in mid-air is a step, a change in position, towards the end state of crossing the finish line.
Were it not for our knowledge of what the end state looks like – in this case, crossing the finish line – we would find it hard to understand that change is afoot. But it’s precisely because we know what the end state is, that we are excited about the change in a race.
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Let’s think of the opposite situation, when we don’t know what the end state is going to be and we risk not grasping that change is happening. Have we ever been in such a situation? Or, have we ever not been?
In life and in politics there are often moments when we may be unsure about the future, and at the same time not realise that things are in flux.
I’m thinking of consequential episodes in history, such as those that caused conflict or initiated powerful social movements. Closer to us as individuals, a birth, the news of illness or the knowledge of unexpected opportunities will set our lives on new paths.
Sudden changes require us to rethink the fundamentals that we held to be true. They challenge our assumptions.
Alas, often there is an asymmetry of information: a social activist imagines one kind of future. A terrorist aims for another. A doctor informing someone about an illness has a course of treatment in mind and information about the life that might ensue. Even as a child is born, we have a social and cultural image of what life as a family would or should look like.
Here is the crux of this piece.
What if we know that change is happening, but nobody knows what the future will hold and how we will change? I would argue that we are in the middle of such a situation right now.
And although our collective horse-like levitation has lasted for well over a year, we are none the wiser. Don’t misunderstand. Businesses have digitised, schools moved online, support schemes started and so much more. We have thought, spoken and written about the new normal.
And yet, on a very practical level, we have all settled into habits that the situation seems to demand, without really, or sufficiently, examining and challenging whether this is what we want. Without critically exploring what future will follow.
We hope that the horse is not in the middle of a jump off a cliff
As countries have more or less shut down again, are we actually clear about the way we will emerge as a society from this lockdown and globally shared experience? Have you sat down with your family, friends or colleagues to ask how you see the future 10 or 20 years from now? What will the new normal look and feel like? What will it sound and smell like? How will our children interact as adults with other adults? What will be lost and gained? It is hard to understate the significance of this moment and its implication for the future.
At the best of times the future is uncertain. Saying that now is a platitude.
So, this is a call to action. An expression for the need to take stock and acknowledge that life is changing – that we are changing and that there is urgent need to collectively design what we and our world will change into.
This is not a fork in the road, no switch to be flicked: Covid-19 is with us for the long haul, perhaps for the majority of this decade.
So what could 2030 look like?
This is different to asking what you want the world to look like in 2030. But, if you have a compelling answer to both, we stand a better chance to come out of this with our collective sanity intact. It will also ensure that the suspended horse lands on solid ground, ready to take the next step. Unless we think about it, we will never know where this change is leading and can only hope that the horse is not in the middle of a jump off a cliff. And you know how I feel about hope as a strategy for the future.
Dr Patrick Noack is the executive director of future, foresight and imagination at the Dubai Future Foundation
Some of Darwish's last words
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
