With the 2024 parliamentary election firmly in their sights, key opposition parties across India are appearing to make plans on how to defeat Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The operative phrase here is “appearing to”.
With three years left before the election, no political party or leader is under any illusion that things will remain static between now and then. It is simply too early to be making actual plans.
Additionally, no effort to build a coalition against the BJP in 2024 will be considered serious enough as long as one particular party – the Indian National Congress (INC) – is not involved in these discussions.
The buzz among some of the involved parties, however, is understandable.
More from Chitrabhanu Kadalayil
India's economy is doing relatively poorly, in large part due to the Covid-19 pandemic, but also as an outcome of some ill-advised policymaking over seven years. GDP growth, around seven to eight per cent in 2014, was down to 3.1 per cent by the first quarter of 2020. Unemployment climbed to a 45-year high of 6.1 per cent in early 2018 – well before the pandemic – and has barely recovered since.
Business reportedly continues to be hit hard by a demonetisation drive in 2016 that wiped out 86 per cent of Indian currency, followed shortly by a hasty rollout of the otherwise much-needed pan-Indian Goods and Services Tax.
But it is the handling of the pandemic in much of the country, particularly the problematic procurement and distribution of vaccines, that has done the most damage to the administration's credibility and popularity to many citizens. India also experienced a devastating second wave of the pandemic that has claimed close to 400,000 lives; unofficial figures range anywhere between two and five times that number.
In the face of such great tragedy, some opposition parties are sensing an opening.
Sharad Pawar has consistently been in the news over the past fortnight. The veteran leader of the Nationalist Congress Party has held two meetings with Prashant Kishor, the country’s most celebrated non-partisan election strategist. Mr Pawar’s inner circle revealed little about the contents of their conversations and cautioned against drawing any conclusions from them.
Just yesterday, however, Mr Pawar met leaders from eight parties – most of them regional outfits – in New Delhi. Prominent among them was Yashwant Sinha, once a towering figure in Mr Modi's BJP and one of India's most reform-minded finance ministers in the nineties and noughties. Mr Sinha is now a member of the All India Trinamool Congress. While his exit from the BJP was a foregone conclusion years ago, given his persistent criticism of the current government, it is significant that he has joined forces with a leader many seem to think will be the most formidable challenger for Mr Modi in 2024: West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee.
Last month, Trinamool Congress routed the BJP in the West Bengal state election, handing Ms Banerjee a third successive term. That her victory was so emphatic – even though she was a two-term incumbent facing a national party with far more resources and the compelling Modi brand at its disposal – has led many experts to believe that her star has risen in national politics.
The BJP and its allies, meanwhile, have suffered setbacks in several state elections over the past two years, to the extent that India’s largest and most well-funded political party now runs states whose populations collectively constitute less than 50 per cent of the country.
Curiously, though, Mr Pawar’s recent parleys have led some observers to speculate that a so-called Third Front could be in the works. This coalition will purportedly accommodate all interested parties that are neither allied with the BJP nor with the INC; the latter is India’s grand old party of the Nehru-Gandhi fame that ruled independent India for close to six decades but currently languishes in the opposition.
The rumoured proposal for a Third Front seems to emanate from the many troubles the INC is facing right now.
Its de facto head is Rahul Gandhi, whose father, grandmother and great-grandfather were all prime ministers, but who himself seems to be a reluctant leader. His apparent reticence, despite appearing to be a decent human being with a desire to reform Indian politics from the ground up, has paled in comparison to Mr Modi's powerful and purposeful persona. Mr Gandhi seems unable to hold together his party, in charge in just three states, or control the periodic defections at state and national levels.
Gandhi's reticence has paled in comparison to Modi's powerful and purposeful persona
In such a scenario, seasoned politicians and proven administrators such as Ms Banerjee, 66, and Mr Pawar, 80, must surely fancy themselves as worthier challengers to Mr Modi’s crown and who should, therefore, lead this ragtag opposition against the BJP in three years’ time. But there are many problems in assuming a Third Front will succeed.
For one, the numbers don’t add up.
As DK Singh of The Print explains, there are 19 states and five union territories – which account for 204 of the 543 seats in Parliament’s Lower House – in which the INC is either the ruling party or the principal opposition. The Third Front has no chances of winning these seats. This leaves it with 339 seats across the rest of the country, where its constituents will be competitive – provided Mr Pawar and Ms Banerjee can convince every major regional party to join their rumoured coalition. Even if it were to win 50 per cent of the seats, it would still be 100 seats short of forming a government (the magic number is 272). It must then bank on either the BJP or the INC to support it, making the coalition unwieldy and perhaps, in the long run, even untenable. Past experiments show that in India such tail-wagging-the-dog-type coalitions don't last beyond a few months.
The second problem is chemistry. Can the myriad regional parties with competing ideologies and vote banks come together to ensure that their votes get transferred to their respective allies? That remains to be seen.
Also, who will lead the coalition? Could it be Mr Pawar, who, at his age, might fancy his chances, given Mahathir Mohamad returned as Malaysia's prime minister at the age of 92? Would Ms Banerjee's voters be put off were she not to be the chosen one? There are several other worthy contenders – all regional satraps – with plenty of experience and heft to lead the Third Front. Will they all get wholly behind whoever they pick? Again, one can only speculate.
It’s difficult to imagine either Mr Pawar or Ms Banerjee would even push for a Third Front, given their own affiliation to the INC. They were both party members whose ambitions grew too big to be accommodated by the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty. But even after they left in the 1990s to form their own outfits, they have remained allies of the INC – partly because, as tall as they are as leaders, their parties are limited to a few pockets in the country. They know that, if the INC – which still commands about 20 per cent of the national vote – wins key state elections between now and 2024, talks of an INC-led coalition will reemerge.
Mr Pawar himself spoke on the record to deny that yesterday’s meeting was concerned with building a Third Front. One doesn’t have to take his word for it, but it would be foolhardy to read too much into the chatter around such exchanges beyond the need for the likes of Mr Pawar to stay relevant and in the news as a means to keep the vote bases of the various opposition parties excited.
Expect more such meetings and speculations up until 2024.
Chitrabhanu Kadalayil is an assistant comment editor at The National
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
|
1.
|
United States
|
|
2.
|
China
|
|
3.
|
UAE
|
|
4.
|
Japan
|
|
5
|
Norway
|
|
6.
|
Canada
|
|
7.
|
Singapore
|
|
8.
|
Australia
|
|
9.
|
Saudi Arabia
|
|
10.
|
South Korea
|
Overview
Cricket World Cup League Two: Nepal, Oman, United States tri-series, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu
Fixtures
Wednesday February 5, Oman v Nepal
Thursday, February 6, Oman v United States
Saturday, February 8, United States v Nepal
Sunday, February 9, Oman v Nepal
Tuesday, February 11, Oman v United States
Wednesday, February 12, United States v Nepal
Going grey? A stylist's advice
If you’re going to go grey, a great style, well-cared for hair (in a sleek, classy style, like a bob), and a young spirit and attitude go a long way, says Maria Dowling, founder of the Maria Dowling Salon in Dubai.
It’s easier to go grey from a lighter colour, so you may want to do that first. And this is the time to try a shorter style, she advises. Then a stylist can introduce highlights, start lightening up the roots, and let it fade out. Once it’s entirely grey, a purple shampoo will prevent yellowing.
“Get professional help – there’s no other way to go around it,” she says. “And don’t just let it grow out because that looks really bad. Put effort into it: properly condition, straighten, get regular trims, make sure it’s glossy.”
Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
Blackpink World Tour [Born Pink] In Cinemas
Starring: Rose, Jisoo, Jennie, Lisa
Directors: Min Geun, Oh Yoon-Dong
Rating: 3/5
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
Gothia Cup 2025
4,872 matches
1,942 teams
116 pitches
76 nations
26 UAE teams
15 Lebanese teams
2 Kuwaiti teams
Kanguva
Director: Siva
Stars: Suriya, Bobby Deol, Disha Patani, Yogi Babu, Redin Kingsley
Countries offering golden visas
UK
Innovator Founder Visa is aimed at those who can demonstrate relevant experience in business and sufficient investment funds to set up and scale up a new business in the UK. It offers permanent residence after three years.
Germany
Investing or establishing a business in Germany offers you a residence permit, which eventually leads to citizenship. The investment must meet an economic need and you have to have lived in Germany for five years to become a citizen.
Italy
The scheme is designed for foreign investors committed to making a significant contribution to the economy. Requires a minimum investment of €250,000 which can rise to €2 million.
Switzerland
Residence Programme offers residence to applicants and their families through economic contributions. The applicant must agree to pay an annual lump sum in tax.
Canada
Start-Up Visa Programme allows foreign entrepreneurs the opportunity to create a business in Canada and apply for permanent residence.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
MATCH INFO
Barcelona 5 (Lenglet 2', Vidal 29', Messi 34', 75', Suarez 77')
Valladolid 1 (Kiko 15')
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
LIVERPOOL%20TOP%20SCORERS
%3Cp%3E(Premier%20League%20only)%3Cbr%3EMohamed%20Salah%20129%3Cbr%3ERobbie%20Fowler%20128%3Cbr%3ESteven%20Gerrard%20120%3Cbr%3EMichael%20Owen%20118%3Cbr%3ESadio%20Mane%2090%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The bio
Studied up to grade 12 in Vatanappally, a village in India’s southern Thrissur district
Was a middle distance state athletics champion in school
Enjoys driving to Fujairah and Ras Al Khaimah with family
His dream is to continue working as a social worker and help people
Has seven diaries in which he has jotted down notes about his work and money he earned
Keeps the diaries in his car to remember his journey in the Emirates
BIRD%20BOX%20BARCELONA
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirectors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20David%20and%20Alex%20Pastor%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EGeorgina%20Campbell%2C%20Mario%20Casas%2C%20Diego%20Calva%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
CHATGPT%20ENTERPRISE%20FEATURES
%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Enterprise-grade%20security%20and%20privacy%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Unlimited%20higher-speed%20GPT-4%20access%20with%20no%20caps%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Longer%20context%20windows%20for%20processing%20longer%20inputs%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Advanced%20data%20analysis%20capabilities%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Customisation%20options%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Shareable%20chat%20templates%20that%20companies%20can%20use%20to%20collaborate%20and%20build%20common%20workflows%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Analytics%20dashboard%20for%20usage%20insights%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Free%20credits%20to%20use%20OpenAI%20APIs%20to%20extend%20OpenAI%20into%20a%20fully-custom%20solution%20for%20enterprises%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
More coverage from the Future Forum
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)
Key recommendations
- Fewer criminals put behind bars and more to serve sentences in the community, with short sentences scrapped and many inmates released earlier.
- Greater use of curfews and exclusion zones to deliver tougher supervision than ever on criminals.
- Explore wider powers for judges to punish offenders by blocking them from attending football matches, banning them from driving or travelling abroad through an expansion of ‘ancillary orders’.
- More Intensive Supervision Courts to tackle the root causes of crime such as alcohol and drug abuse – forcing repeat offenders to take part in tough treatment programmes or face prison.
Signs%20of%20%20%20%20%20%20%20heat%20stroke
%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3EThe%20loss%20of%20sodium%20chloride%20in%20our%20sweat%20can%20lead%20to%20confusion%20and%20an%20altered%20mental%20status%20and%20slurred%20speech%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EBody%20temperature%20above%2039%C2%B0C%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EHot%2C%20dry%20and%20red%20or%20damp%20skin%20can%20indicate%20heatstroke%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EA%20faster%20pulse%20than%20usual%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EDizziness%2C%20nausea%20and%20headaches%20are%20also%20signs%20of%20overheating%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EIn%20extreme%20cases%2C%20victims%20can%20lose%20consciousness%20and%20require%20immediate%20medical%20attention%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The biog
Name: Younis Al Balooshi
Nationality: Emirati
Education: Doctorate degree in forensic medicine at the University of Bonn
Hobbies: Drawing and reading books about graphic design
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, Leon.
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
The Africa Institute 101
Housed on the same site as the original Africa Hall, which first hosted an Arab-African Symposium in 1976, the newly renovated building will be home to a think tank and postgraduate studies hub (it will offer master’s and PhD programmes). The centre will focus on both the historical and contemporary links between Africa and the Gulf, and will serve as a meeting place for conferences, symposia, lectures, film screenings, plays, musical performances and more. In fact, today it is hosting a symposium – 5-plus-1: Rethinking Abstraction that will look at the six decades of Frank Bowling’s career, as well as those of his contemporaries that invested social, cultural and personal meaning into abstraction.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Fixtures
Opening day Premier League fixtures for August 9-11
August 9
Liverpool v Norwich 11pm
August 10
West Ham v Man City 3.30pm
Bournemouth v Sheffield Utd 6pm
Burnley v Southampton 6pm
C Palace v Everton 6pm
Leicester v Wolves 6pm
Watford v Brighton 6pm
Tottenham v Aston Villa 8.30pm
August 11
Newcastle v Arsenal 5pm
Man United v Chelsea 7.30pm
Zidane's managerial achievements
La Liga: 2016/17
Spanish Super Cup: 2017
Uefa Champions League: 2015/16, 2016/17, 2017/18
Uefa Super Cup: 2016, 2017
Fifa Club World Cup: 2016, 2017
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
HWJN
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Yasir%20Alyasiri%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%20Baraa%20Alem%2C%20Nour%20Alkhadra%2C%20Alanoud%20Saud%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
More from Aya Iskandarani
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Results
6.30pm: Mazrat Al Ruwayah – Group 2 (PA) $36,000 (Dirt) 1,600m, Winner: RB Money To Burn, Tadhg O’Shea (jockey), Eric Lemartinel (trainer)
7.05pm: Handicap (TB) $68,000 (Turf) 2,410m, Winner: Star Safari, William Buick, Charlie Appleby
7.40pm: Meydan Trophy – Conditions (TB) $50,000 (T) 1,900m, Winner: Secret Protector, William Buick, Charlie Appleby
8.15pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round 2 - Group 2 (TB) $293,000 (D) 1,900m, Winner: Salute The Soldier, Adrie de Vries, Fawzi Nass
8.50pm: Al Rashidiya – Group 2 (TB) $163,000 (T) 1,800m, Winner: Zakouski, William Buick, Charlie Appleby
9.25pm: Handicap (TB) $65,000 (T) 1,000m, Winner: Motafaawit, Sam Hitchcock, Doug Watson
'My Son'
Director: Christian Carion
Starring: James McAvoy, Claire Foy, Tom Cullen, Gary Lewis
Rating: 2/5
Jeff Buckley: From Hallelujah To The Last Goodbye
By Dave Lory with Jim Irvin
Mane points for safe home colouring
- Natural and grey hair takes colour differently than chemically treated hair
- Taking hair from a dark to a light colour should involve a slow transition through warmer stages of colour
- When choosing a colour (especially a lighter tone), allow for a natural lift of warmth
- Most modern hair colours are technique-based, in that they require a confident hand and taught skills
- If you decide to be brave and go for it, seek professional advice and use a semi-permanent colour
