The Brexit game of chicken is back with a vengeance after the coronavirus crisis destroyed any hope of securing a trade agreement in 2020.
In a game of nerves between the two drivers faced with an oncoming cliff edge there are only three options: brake early and lose; allow your rival to go over the edge or fly off into oblivion together.
As far as the trade negotiations are concerned all three options represent failure for the British or the Europeans or both.
First some facts. Britain left the European Union on January 31. But an 11 month transition kept a frozen relationship until the end of this year.
A free trade deal to minimise future barriers should be thrashed out in months. If nothing else an existing pact, like the Canada Free Trade Agreement, could be hastily upgraded for the UK.
Coronavirus hit Europe as Brexit happened. The impact of the pandemic has shattered hopes that the last piece of the jigsaw could be put in place.
So within a matter of weeks it will be clear that going over the cliff edge is inevitable.
This could be a force majeure moment in which all sides decide on an extension. Most of the negotiators on the EU and the British side contracted Covid-19.
The substance of the trade relationship has not been discussed. Involvement of parliaments or interest groups has been hampered by the shutdown.
Countries in the worst-hit continent are grappling on multiple fronts with coronavirus. The bandwidth for political decision making is almost nonexistent outside of the health and economic crisis.
The economic backdrop is appalling. The governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey told reporters last week that the economy would shrink about 30 per cent in the first half of 2020.
Brussels is asking Britain to sign up to non-regression rules that would mean acceptance of its regulations far into the future. This cripples the UK's ability to make trade deals with other countries
European governments and its central bank are spending the equivalent of 22 per cent of gross domestic product just to keep this year's hit to their economies in single digits.
The global impact is thought to be a cut of at least a 10 per cent in global imports.
In this situation surely there is no danger that any country would risk a further blow to its trade regime.
British political reality dictates that the country will walk away, possibly as soon as June when a review of the talks process is due.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who is recovering from a near-fatal fight with Covid-19, is battling within his party to hold the line on maintaining the Covid-19 lockdown.
A clamour with the Conservatives seeks to staunch the red lines coursing through the economy.
His ability to take a party that won the most convincing electoral victory for 18 years to drop its cherished Brexit is beyond even Mr Johnson.
Not that he shows any sign that he would do it if he could.
The coronavirus has exposed the unattractive propositions within the EU negotiating demands.
Brussels is asking Britain to sign up to non-regression rules that would mean acceptance of its regulations far into the future.
This cripples the UK’s ability to make trade deals with other countries.
It also seeking rules on data that would leave London as a rule taker in the digital economy.
As an example of how out of step the EU position has become given the current crisis, the negotiators are insisting that Britain follows its state aid rules.
That means that in a crisis the UK could not bailout its biggest airline until it had a waiver from the EU.
Germany has spent 10 billion euros shoring up Lufthansa. Britain has not yet bankrolled British Airways or Virgin Atlantic.
Yet the EU trade position is that it should sign up to rules designed to stop British interventionism.
Climate change is another area of dispute. The EU is laying down emissions and carbon emissions rules as the basis of its future free trade agreements.
These demands not only affect the UK but also, according to Malcolm Turnbull, the former Australian prime minister, friendly nations in a different hemisphere.
Never mind that British domestic law stipulates that the country is carbon neutral by 2050.
Borders are going up around Europe. One by one countries have closed off the Schengen pact that allows free movement. Resentment within the eurozone between the rich north and the struggling states is a pressure cooker with the dial on red.
All of these factors are fully in the open as a result of the sudden stop triggered by the coronavirus.
A sovereigntist government led by Mr Johnson has had its red line fully exposed and made clear in the crisis.
For that reason, London will walk when the moment of truth comes.
Damien McElroy is the London bureau chief of The National
Defence review at a glance
• Increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 but given “turbulent times it may be necessary to go faster”
• Prioritise a shift towards working with AI and autonomous systems
• Invest in the resilience of military space systems.
• Number of active reserves should be increased by 20%
• More F-35 fighter jets required in the next decade
• New “hybrid Navy” with AUKUS submarines and autonomous vessels
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
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Quick pearls of wisdom
Focus on gratitude: And do so deeply, he says. “Think of one to three things a day that you’re grateful for. It needs to be specific, too, don’t just say ‘air.’ Really think about it. If you’re grateful for, say, what your parents have done for you, that will motivate you to do more for the world.”
Know how to fight: Shetty married his wife, Radhi, three years ago (he met her in a meditation class before he went off and became a monk). He says they’ve had to learn to respect each other’s “fighting styles” – he’s a talk it-out-immediately person, while she needs space to think. “When you’re having an argument, remember, it’s not you against each other. It’s both of you against the problem. When you win, they lose. If you’re on a team you have to win together.”
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
England-South Africa Test series
1st Test England win by 211 runs at Lord's, London
2nd Test South Africa win by 340 runs at Trent Bridge, Nottingham
3rd Test July 27-31 at The Oval, London
4th Test August 4-8 at Old Trafford, Manchester
Skoda Superb Specs
Engine: 2-litre TSI petrol
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MO
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More on Quran memorisation:
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ONCE UPON A TIME IN GAZA
Starring: Nader Abd Alhay, Majd Eid, Ramzi Maqdisi
Directors: Tarzan and Arab Nasser
Rating: 4.5/5
Profile
Co-founders of the company: Vilhelm Hedberg and Ravi Bhusari
Launch year: In 2016 ekar launched and signed an agreement with Etihad Airways in Abu Dhabi. In January 2017 ekar launched in Dubai in a partnership with the RTA.
Number of employees: Over 50
Financing stage: Series B currently being finalised
Investors: Series A - Audacia Capital
Sector of operation: Transport
How green is the expo nursery?
Some 400,000 shrubs and 13,000 trees in the on-site nursery
An additional 450,000 shrubs and 4,000 trees to be delivered in the months leading up to the expo
Ghaf, date palm, acacia arabica, acacia tortilis, vitex or sage, techoma and the salvadora are just some heat tolerant native plants in the nursery
Approximately 340 species of shrubs and trees selected for diverse landscape
The nursery team works exclusively with organic fertilisers and pesticides
All shrubs and trees supplied by Dubai Municipality
Most sourced from farms, nurseries across the country
Plants and trees are re-potted when they arrive at nursery to give them room to grow
Some mature trees are in open areas or planted within the expo site
Green waste is recycled as compost
Treated sewage effluent supplied by Dubai Municipality is used to meet the majority of the nursery’s irrigation needs
Construction workforce peaked at 40,000 workers
About 65,000 people have signed up to volunteer
Main themes of expo is ‘Connecting Minds, Creating the Future’ and three subthemes of opportunity, mobility and sustainability.
Expo 2020 Dubai to open in October 2020 and run for six months
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
How does ToTok work?
The calling app is available to download on Google Play and Apple App Store
To successfully install ToTok, users are asked to enter their phone number and then create a nickname.
The app then gives users the option add their existing phone contacts, allowing them to immediately contact people also using the application by video or voice call or via message.
Users can also invite other contacts to download ToTok to allow them to make contact through the app.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The more serious side of specialty coffee
While the taste of beans and freshness of roast is paramount to the specialty coffee scene, so is sustainability and workers’ rights.
The bulk of genuine specialty coffee companies aim to improve on these elements in every stage of production via direct relationships with farmers. For instance, Mokha 1450 on Al Wasl Road strives to work predominantly with women-owned and -operated coffee organisations, including female farmers in the Sabree mountains of Yemen.
Because, as the boutique’s owner, Garfield Kerr, points out: “women represent over 90 per cent of the coffee value chain, but are woefully underrepresented in less than 10 per cent of ownership and management throughout the global coffee industry.”
One of the UAE’s largest suppliers of green (meaning not-yet-roasted) beans, Raw Coffee, is a founding member of the Partnership of Gender Equity, which aims to empower female coffee farmers and harvesters.
Also, globally, many companies have found the perfect way to recycle old coffee grounds: they create the perfect fertile soil in which to grow mushrooms.
Who was Alfred Nobel?
The Nobel Prize was created by wealthy Swedish chemist and entrepreneur Alfred Nobel.
- In his will he dictated that the bulk of his estate should be used to fund "prizes to those who, during the preceding year, have conferred the greatest benefit to humankind".
- Nobel is best known as the inventor of dynamite, but also wrote poetry and drama and could speak Russian, French, English and German by the age of 17. The five original prize categories reflect the interests closest to his heart.
- Nobel died in 1896 but it took until 1901, following a legal battle over his will, before the first prizes were awarded.
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More coverage from the Future Forum
MATCH INFO
First Test at Barbados
West Indies won by 381 runs
Second Test at Antigua
West Indies won by 10 wickets
Third Test at St Lucia
February 9-13
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Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
Six pitfalls to avoid when trading company stocks
Following fashion
Investing is cyclical, buying last year's winners often means holding this year's losers.
Losing your balance
You end up with too much exposure to an individual company or sector that has taken your fancy.
Being over active
If you chop and change your portfolio too often, dealing charges will eat up your gains.
Running your losers
Investors hate admitting mistakes and hold onto bad stocks hoping they will come good.
Selling in a panic
If you sell up when the market drops, you have locked yourself out of the recovery.
Timing the market
Even the best investor in the world cannot consistently call market movements.
Why are asylum seekers being housed in hotels?
The number of asylum applications in the UK has reached a new record high, driven by those illegally entering the country in small boats crossing the English Channel.
A total of 111,084 people applied for asylum in the UK in the year to June 2025, the highest number for any 12-month period since current records began in 2001.
Asylum seekers and their families can be housed in temporary accommodation while their claim is assessed.
The Home Office provides the accommodation, meaning asylum seekers cannot choose where they live.
When there is not enough housing, the Home Office can move people to hotels or large sites like former military bases.
Key figures in the life of the fort
Sheikh Dhiyab bin Isa (ruled 1761-1793) Built Qasr Al Hosn as a watchtower to guard over the only freshwater well on Abu Dhabi island.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Dhiyab (ruled 1793-1816) Expanded the tower into a small fort and transferred his ruling place of residence from Liwa Oasis to the fort on the island.
Sheikh Tahnoon bin Shakhbut (ruled 1818-1833) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further as Abu Dhabi grew from a small village of palm huts to a town of more than 5,000 inhabitants.
Sheikh Khalifa bin Shakhbut (ruled 1833-1845) Repaired and fortified the fort.
Sheikh Saeed bin Tahnoon (ruled 1845-1855) Turned Qasr Al Hosn into a strong two-storied structure.
Sheikh Zayed bin Khalifa (ruled 1855-1909) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further to reflect the emirate's increasing prominence.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Sultan (ruled 1928-1966) Renovated and enlarged Qasr Al Hosn, adding a decorative arch and two new villas.
Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan (ruled 1966-2004) Moved the royal residence to Al Manhal palace and kept his diwan at Qasr Al Hosn.
Sources: Jayanti Maitra, www.adach.ae
'The Batman'
Stars:Robert Pattinson
Director:Matt Reeves
Rating: 5/5
THE BIO
Born: Mukalla, Yemen, 1979
Education: UAE University, Al Ain
Family: Married with two daughters: Asayel, 7, and Sara, 6
Favourite piece of music: Horse Dance by Naseer Shamma
Favourite book: Science and geology
Favourite place to travel to: Washington DC
Best advice you’ve ever been given: If you have a dream, you have to believe it, then you will see it.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
GIANT REVIEW
Starring: Amir El-Masry, Pierce Brosnan
Director: Athale
Rating: 4/5
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
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