A great deal of decision-making on the part of world leaders is on hold until the result of the US election becomes clear.
The camp rooting for Democratic candidate Joe Biden is led by China, Iran and Venezuela. It is joined by several European countries, who see Donald Trump’s presidency as a menace to Nato. A number of Arab states, on the other hand, were reassured by the Trump administration’s reset of their traditional relationship with the US, which was restored after former president Barack Obama’s U-turn in favour of Iran, Turkey and their common project to impose religion on the state.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan could never forget the support afforded by Mr Obama, Mr Biden (who was then vice president), and former US secretary of state Hillary Clinton for his project to install the Muslim Brotherhood in power throughout North Africa. However, in spite of the venomous rhetoric frequently traded between Turkey and the US, he has also enjoyed a close personal relationship with Donald Trump, which has saved him more than once. It saved him even when he sought to acquire the S-400 missile defence system from Russia, much to the US government’s ire, and forged personal relations with the Russian leader Vladimir Putin, though these recently deteriorated.
Israel, for its part, receives preferential treatment from the US no matter who is in the White House.
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Mr Putin prefers Mr Trump to Mr Biden, who the Russians see as a threat for the likelihood that he will reinvigorate Nato. The likelihood that Mr Biden could lift sanctions on Iran could also impact oil prices in a way that could hurt the Russian economy further. Fear of the Democrats’ retribution for Russia’s alleged role in meddling in the 2016 US elections also looms large.
All of these leaders build their policies, to a great extent, based on a US president’s identity and character. At the same time they have to balance that strategy with an awareness that the US and its foreign policy are led not only by the presidency, but also the legislative branch. There is also the rest of the US establishment and even Wall Street, which this year remarkably dropped their traditional support for the Republican Party in favour of Mr Biden.
Why is Iran more invested in a Biden presidency? That answer lies in the JCPOA nuclear deal with Iran, which was agreed along with European powers. The Obama administration had made the JCPOA one of its top priorities at a heavy cost, including the deliberate abandonment of Syria to Iran, Russia, and Turkey.
Mr Biden and much of his team, who were complicit in Mr Obama’s abandonment of Syria, have said that they would automatically return the US to the JCPOA and undo Mr Trump’s withdrawal from that deal. The Biden camp believes this is the easiest and quickest foreign policy victory it could achieve – a “master stroke” that would restore warmth to US relations with Europe.
One problem, however, lies in the question of how to resume negotiations with Tehran in a way that takes into account recent advancements in Iran’s ballistic missile programme and its regional role in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen. A Biden administration must also assess how it could lift or ease sanctions on Iran when they have been enshrined in Congressional bills, given the likelihood that Republicans will continue to control the Senate. The Biden camp’s interest in returning to the JCPOA without thinking too hard about these issues is good news to Iran. That’s why Tehran sees value in “strategic patience”, waiting for Mr Biden’s time in the White House to arrive.
The Biden camp's interest in returning to the JCPOA without thinking too hard is good news to Iran
The same could be said of China, a tentative ally of Iran. Beijing sees defeating Mr Trump as a strategic goal and sees Mr Biden a softer alternative. The socialist tendencies of some sections of the Democratic Party also bodes well, even while Mr Biden has the backing of Wall Street. While New York’s financiers are no ideological bedfellows with Beijing, they have been disturbed by Mr Trump’s open hostility to Chinese investment and the unpredictable impact of his capricious tweets on US financial markets.
Russia, which prefers Mr Trump to Mr Biden even though it is a signatory to the JCPOA, is concerned about the prospect of sanctions relief for Iran. Allowing Iran to resume pumping oil into global markets could push Russian oil prices down. Mr Putin also sees Mr Trump’s shakedown of Nato as a positive. Moscow has also found itself trapped in multiple quagmires around the world, including in Syria, and does not trust Turkey’s designs there or in Libya and elsewhere. In other words, while the Russian relationship with Mr Trump’s America is difficult and complicated, but it would be even more difficult with a Biden administration.
Kevin Rudd, Australia’s former prime minister and a studied expert on Chinese affairs, recently remarked that, in his view, China is hedging its alliances between Arab states and Iran. “Its strategy is along these lines: be friends to all, be enemies of none until someone finds you out and then duck for cover,” Mr Rudd said.
Saudi Arabia’s Prince Turki al-Faisal flipped that logic on its head. “What I’m afraid of is that actually…the Iranians will two-time the Chinese, in the sense that they will get all the benefits and the Chinese will get nothing in return for that strategic engagement”.
Prince Turki also said that the Arab Gulf countries will not be radically impacted by either Chinese-Iranian relations or the outcome of the election in the US. “Arab countries,” he said, “will have to take into consideration that a Biden administration is emanating from an Obama administration, but not necessarily bound by Obama's implementation of his of his foreign policy, particularly on issues like the JCPOA and other issues in the area.
“Biden has said that he will go back to the JCPOA, but that he will have conditions…We still don't know what those conditions are, but he talked about Iranian missile production and also Iranian malign activity in the area.”
World leaders are thus awaiting the outcome of the US election, but at the same time are drawing various scenarios. Either way, Donald Trump will remain president until January, and a lot could happen until then. In the meantime, the presidents, prime ministers and supreme leaders of other nations will continue to hold their breath.
Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute and a columnist for The National
Match info
Athletic Bilbao 0
Real Madrid 1 (Ramos 73' pen)
THE LOWDOWN
Romeo Akbar Walter
Rating: 2/5 stars
Produced by: Dharma Productions, Azure Entertainment
Directed by: Robby Grewal
Cast: John Abraham, Mouni Roy, Jackie Shroff and Sikandar Kher
UAE rugby season
FIXTURES
West Asia Premiership
Dubai Hurricanes v Dubai Knights Eagles
Dubai Tigers v Bahrain
Jebel Ali Dragons v Abu Dhabi Harlequins
UAE Division 1
Dubai Sharks v Dubai Hurricanes II
Al Ain Amblers v Dubai Knights Eagles II
Dubai Tigers II v Abu Dhabi Saracens
Jebel Ali Dragons II v Abu Dhabi Harlequins II
Sharjah Wanderers v Dubai Exiles II
LAST SEASON
West Asia Premiership
Winners – Bahrain
Runners-up – Dubai Exiles
UAE Premiership
Winners – Abu Dhabi Harlequins
Runners-up – Jebel Ali Dragons
Dubai Rugby Sevens
Winners – Dubai Hurricanes
Runners-up – Abu Dhabi Harlequins
UAE Conference
Winners – Dubai Tigers
Runners-up – Al Ain Amblers
ROUTE%20TO%20TITLE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERound%201%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Beat%20Leolia%20Jeanjean%206-1%2C%206-2%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERound%202%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBeat%20Naomi%20Osaka%207-6%2C%201-6%2C%207-5%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERound%203%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBeat%20Marie%20Bouzkova%206-4%2C%206-2%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERound%204%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Beat%20Anastasia%20Potapova%206-0%2C%206-0%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EQuarter-final%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBeat%20Marketa%20Vondrousova%206-0%2C%206-2%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESemi-final%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBeat%20Coco%20Gauff%206-2%2C%206-4%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFinal%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Beat%20Jasmine%20Paolini%206-2%2C%206-2%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Essentials
The flights
Emirates and Etihad fly direct from the UAE to Los Angeles, from Dh4,975 return, including taxes. The flight time is 16 hours. Alaska Airlines, United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Aeromexico and Southwest all fly direct from Los Angeles to San Jose del Cabo from Dh1,243 return, including taxes. The flight time is two-and-a-half hours.
The trip
Lindblad Expeditions National Geographic’s eight-day Whales Wilderness itinerary costs from US$6,190 (Dh22,736) per person, twin share, including meals, accommodation and excursions, with departures in March and April 2018.
Chelsea 2 Burnley 3
Chelsea Morata (69'), Luiz (88')
Burnley Vokes (24', 43'), Ward (39')
Red cards Cahill, Fabregas (Chelsea)
IF YOU GO
The flights
FlyDubai flies direct from Dubai to Skopje in five hours from Dh1,314 return including taxes. Hourly buses from Skopje to Ohrid take three hours.
The tours
English-speaking guided tours of Ohrid town and the surrounding area are organised by Cultura 365; these cost €90 (Dh386) for a one-day trip including driver and guide and €100 a day (Dh429) for two people.
The hotels
Villa St Sofija in the old town of Ohrid, twin room from $54 (Dh198) a night.
St Naum Monastery, on the lake 30km south of Ohrid town, has updated its pilgrims' quarters into a modern 3-star hotel, with rooms overlooking the monastery courtyard and lake. Double room from $60 (Dh 220) a night.
The five pillars of Islam
Drivers’ championship standings after Singapore:
1. Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes - 263
2. Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari - 235
3. Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes - 212
4. Daniel Ricciardo, Red Bull - 162
5. Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari - 138
6. Sergio Perez, Force India - 68
Brief scores:
Toss: Kerala Knights, opted to fielf
Pakhtoons 109-5 (10 ov)
Fletcher 32; Lamichhane 3-17
Kerala Knights 110-2 (7.5 ov)
Morgan 46 not out, Stirling 40
BIGGEST CYBER SECURITY INCIDENTS IN RECENT TIMES
SolarWinds supply chain attack: Came to light in December 2020 but had taken root for several months, compromising major tech companies, governments and its entities
Microsoft Exchange server exploitation: March 2021; attackers used a vulnerability to steal emails
Kaseya attack: July 2021; ransomware hit perpetrated REvil, resulting in severe downtime for more than 1,000 companies
Log4j breach: December 2021; attackers exploited the Java-written code to inflitrate businesses and governments
The biog
Fast facts on Neil Armstrong’s personal life:
- Armstrong was born on August 5, 1930, in Wapakoneta, Ohio
- He earned his private pilot’s license when he was 16 – he could fly before he could drive
- There was tragedy in his married life: Neil and Janet Armstrong’s daughter Karen died at the age of two in 1962 after suffering a brain tumour. She was the couple’s only daughter. Their two sons, Rick and Mark, consulted on the film
- After Armstrong departed Nasa, he bought a farm in the town of Lebanon, Ohio, in 1971 – its airstrip allowed him to tap back into his love of flying
- In 1994, Janet divorced Neil after 38 years of marriage. Two years earlier, Neil met Carol Knight, who became his second wife in 1994
The specs
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Transmission: ten-speed
Power: 420bhp
Torque: 624Nm
Price: Dh325,125
On sale: Now
Squads
Pakistan: Sarfaraz Ahmed (c), Babar Azam (vc), Abid Ali, Asif Ali, Fakhar Zaman, Haris Sohail, Mohammad Hasnain, Iftikhar Ahmed, Imad Wasim, Mohammad Amir, Mohammad Nawaz, Mohammad Rizwan, Shadab Khan, Usman Shinwari, Wahab Riaz
Sri Lanka: Lahiru Thirimanne (c), Danushka Gunathilaka, Sadeera Samarawickrama, Avishka Fernando, Oshada Fernando, Shehan Jayasuriya, Dasun Shanaka, Minod Bhanuka, Angelo Perera, Wanindu Hasaranga, Lakshan Sandakan, Nuwan Pradeep, Isuru Udana, Kasun Rajitha, Lahiru Kumara
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Power: 240hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 390Nm at 3,000rpm
Transmission: eight-speed auto
Price: from Dh122,745
On sale: now
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Stamp%20duty%20timeline
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Most wanted allegations
- Benjamin Macann, 32: involvement in cocaine smuggling gang.
- Jack Mayle, 30: sold drugs from a phone line called the Flavour Quest.
- Callum Halpin, 27: over the 2018 murder of a rival drug dealer.
- Asim Naveed, 29: accused of being the leader of a gang that imported cocaine.
- Calvin Parris, 32: accused of buying cocaine from Naveed and selling it on.
- John James Jones, 31: allegedly stabbed two people causing serious injuries.
- Callum Michael Allan, 23: alleged drug dealing and assaulting an emergency worker.
- Dean Garforth, 29: part of a crime gang that sold drugs and guns.
- Joshua Dillon Hendry, 30: accused of trafficking heroin and crack cocain.
- Mark Francis Roberts, 28: grievous bodily harm after a bungled attempt to steal a £60,000 watch.
- James ‘Jamie’ Stevenson, 56: for arson and over the seizure of a tonne of cocaine.
- Nana Oppong, 41: shot a man eight times in a suspected gangland reprisal attack.
'Saand Ki Aankh'
Produced by: Reliance Entertainment with Chalk and Cheese Films
Director: Tushar Hiranandani
Cast: Taapsee Pannu, Bhumi Pednekar, Prakash Jha, Vineet Singh
Rating: 3.5/5 stars