In some Syrian towns north of Aleppo, there is a surprising amount of Turkish written on the buildings and spoken in the streets. The area, a few dozen kilometres from the border, has always had trade links with its northern neighbour. But now there are also Turkish troops patrolling the streets.
This is Turkey's "borderlands" strategy in action. Since getting involved in the Syrian conflict, Turkey has carved out a significant patch of territory across the north of Syria, from its borders to the Euphrates.
In towns such as Jarablus, Azaz and Al Bab – the last of these right on the outskirts of Aleppo – Turkey has poured in investment and expertise, connecting electricity and building roads. Schools, hospitals and apartment complexes have been built, essentially paid for or subsidised by the Turkish state. Turkish water suppliers and mobile phone companies have moved in. New economic zones are planned.
All of that, however, is now at risk from the Russian and Syrian regime attack on Idlib province.
Having failed to get Damascus, Tehran and Moscow to agree a ceasefire, Ankara is now scrambling to salvage what it can from its previous strategy of supporting Syrian rebels in Idlib. But as regime control moves north, there is a serious risk that all the blood and treasure Turkey has spent on these border towns might be wasted. If Turkey loses all its influence in Idlib, that would put its whole strategy in doubt.
Turkey’s borderlands strategy has been in the making for years, but it really began to take shape once the areas in question were cleared of ISIS fighters.
Over the years, the details have changed slightly, but in broad strokes the idea has remained constant: Turkey would carve out areas of northern Syria along its border, where it would remain in de facto control.
These regions would be protected by the Free Syrian Army – now the preferred name appears to be “National Army”, but it would be composed primarily of rebels who were regime opponents – who would answer to some form of Syrian interim government, separate from Damascus.
In an earlier incarnation, Ankara appears to have wanted a rival government to Damascus, but these days the towns are mostly run by Syrians forming local councils, with Turkish “advisers”.
The political logic behind this plan neatly solved two of Turkey's problems at once. Creating this buffer zone pushed Kurdish militants away from Turkey's border. The buffer zone also allowed Syrian refugees inside Turkey to be resettled on Syrian territory without being subject to the dangers of the regime.
Tens of thousands have so far been resettled. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, well aware of the strain that three million refugees are having on the Turkish economy – and on Turks with blue collar jobs, in particular – never misses an opportunity to remind the electorate how many have been resettled. Last month he claimed a quarter of a million Syrians had left Turkey for these borderlands.
Now, all of this hangs in the balance. Last week, at a major summit in Tehran, Moscow brushed aside Turkish calls for a ceasefire on Idlib province, and air strikes and attacks are ongoing.
Turkey has supported Syrian rebels inside the province and had hoped to maintain control over it using an umbrella group of various militant factions. But the largest militant group inside Idlib, Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS), refused to lay down its weapons and collaborate.
Just before last week’s critical summit between the presidents of Russia, Iran and Turkey, Erdogan abruptly added the organisation to Turkey’s list of proscribed terrorist groups, essentially accepting regime and Russian attacks on it. Without fighter jets or anti-aircraft guns, it is unlikely HTS can long survive the regime assault.
That poses a difficult problem for Turkey. If – or when – the regime retakes Idlib province, the borders of regime-controlled territory will come right up to the buffer zone that Turkey has created. That will be a combustible combination. Syrian regime troops will be facing Turkish soldiers and a region full of Syrian rebels, all of whom are arch enemies of the regime.
Moreover, Syrian Kurds have made it clear that they are willing to help the regime retake Idlib, in return for assistance driving Turks and Syrian rebels from the border towns.
At that point, which could come as early as the next few weeks, Turkey and the regime will face a pivotal dilemma. Bashar Al Assad has repeatedly said he intends to retake all of Syrian territory; having Turkish troops and Syrian rebels just on the outskirts of the country's second city would be an immense provocation. Yet Turkey has invested so much in its borderlands strategy and considers keeping Kurdish groups from its border a matter of national security.
Much might depend on how forceful the Turkish army decides to be in defence of rebel groups inside Idlib, insofar as this could set a precedent for its defence of the borderlands. But Russia has backed the regime every time it has sought to retake territory – and, given Vladimir Putin's willingness to take territory he considers to be Russian by force, it seems overwhelmingly likely that the regime will keep pushing north, all the way to the border.
Ankara is about to face a crucial test. If Turkey wants to keep its borderlands, it will have two unpalatable choices: negotiate with the Syrian regime, which it has so far refused to speak to, or dogfight Russian jets over the skies of Syria. Turkey's president would prefer to avoid both.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
Banned items
Dubai Police has also issued a list of banned items at the ground on Sunday. These include:
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Political flags or banners
-
Bikes, skateboards or scooters
MIDWAY
Produced: Lionsgate Films, Shanghai Ryui Entertainment, Street Light Entertainment
Directed: Roland Emmerich
Cast: Ed Skrein, Woody Harrelson, Dennis Quaid, Aaron Eckhart, Luke Evans, Nick Jonas, Mandy Moore, Darren Criss
Rating: 3.5/5 stars
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
The%20specs%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDual%20permanently%20excited%20synchronous%20motors%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E516hp%20or%20400Kw%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E858Nm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle%20speed%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERange%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E485km%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh699%2C000%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
FROM%20THE%20ASHES
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Khalid%20Fahad%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%20Shaima%20Al%20Tayeb%2C%20Wafa%20Muhamad%2C%20Hamss%20Bandar%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
LA LIGA FIXTURES
Thursday (All UAE kick-off times)
Sevilla v Real Betis (midnight)
Friday
Granada v Real Betis (9.30pm)
Valencia v Levante (midnight)
Saturday
Espanyol v Alaves (4pm)
Celta Vigo v Villarreal (7pm)
Leganes v Real Valladolid (9.30pm)
Mallorca v Barcelona (midnight)
Sunday
Atletic Bilbao v Atletico Madrid (4pm)
Real Madrid v Eibar (9.30pm)
Real Sociedad v Osasuna (midnight)
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Zayed%20Centre%20for%20Research
%3Cp%3EThe%20Zayed%20Centre%20for%20Research%20is%20a%20partnership%20between%20Great%20Ormond%20Street%20Hospital%2C%20University%20College%20London%20and%20Great%20Ormond%20Street%20Hospital%20Children%E2%80%99s%20Charity%20and%20was%20made%20possible%20thanks%20to%20a%20generous%20%C2%A360%20million%20gift%20in%202014%20from%20Sheikha%20Fatima%20bint%20Mubarak%2C%20Chairwoman%20of%20the%20General%20Women's%20Union%2C%20President%20of%20the%20Supreme%20Council%20for%20Motherhood%20and%20Childhood%2C%20and%20Supreme%20Chairwoman%20of%20the%20Family%20Development%20Foundation.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Europe’s rearming plan
- Suspend strict budget rules to allow member countries to step up defence spending
- Create new "instrument" providing €150 billion of loans to member countries for defence investment
- Use the existing EU budget to direct more funds towards defence-related investment
- Engage the bloc's European Investment Bank to drop limits on lending to defence firms
- Create a savings and investments union to help companies access capital
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
Election pledges on migration
CDU: "Now is the time to control the German borders and enforce strict border rejections"
SPD: "Border closures and blanket rejections at internal borders contradict the spirit of a common area of freedom"
North Pole stats
Distance covered: 160km
Temperature: -40°C
Weight of equipment: 45kg
Altitude (metres above sea level): 0
Terrain: Ice rock
South Pole stats
Distance covered: 130km
Temperature: -50°C
Weight of equipment: 50kg
Altitude (metres above sea level): 3,300
Terrain: Flat ice
Cricket World Cup League Two
Oman, UAE, Namibia
Al Amerat, Muscat
Results
Oman beat UAE by five wickets
UAE beat Namibia by eight runs
Fixtures
Wednesday January 8 –Oman v Namibia
Thursday January 9 – Oman v UAE
Saturday January 11 – UAE v Namibia
Sunday January 12 – Oman v Namibia
Kat Wightman's tips on how to create zones in large spaces
- Area carpets or rugs are the easiest way to segregate spaces while also unifying them.
- Lighting can help define areas. Try pendant lighting over dining tables, and side and floor lamps in living areas.
- Keep the colour palette the same in a room, but combine different tones and textures in different zone. A common accent colour dotted throughout the space brings it together.
- Don’t be afraid to use furniture to break up the space. For example, if you have a sofa placed in the middle of the room, a console unit behind it will give good punctuation.
- Use a considered collection of prints and artworks that work together to form a cohesive journey.
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
APPLE IPAD MINI (A17 PRO)
Display: 21cm Liquid Retina Display, 2266 x 1488, 326ppi, 500 nits
Chip: Apple A17 Pro, 6-core CPU, 5-core GPU, 16-core Neural Engine
Storage: 128/256/512GB
Main camera: 12MP wide, f/1.8, digital zoom up to 5x, Smart HDR 4
Front camera: 12MP ultra-wide, f/2.4, Smart HDR 4, full-HD @ 25/30/60fps
Biometrics: Touch ID, Face ID
Colours: Blue, purple, space grey, starlight
In the box: iPad mini, USB-C cable, 20W USB-C power adapter
Price: From Dh2,099
SUNDAY'S ABU DHABI T10 MATCHES
Northern Warriors v Team Abu Dhabi, 3.30pm
Bangla Tigers v Karnataka Tuskers, 5.45pm
Qalandars v Maratha Arabians, 8pm
'Gehraiyaan'
Director:Shakun Batra
Stars:Deepika Padukone, Siddhant Chaturvedi, Ananya Panday, Dhairya Karwa
Rating: 4/5
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates, Etihad and Swiss fly direct from the UAE to Zurich from Dh2,855 return, including taxes.
The chalet
Chalet N is currently open in winter only, between now and April 21. During the ski season, starting on December 11, a week’s rental costs from €210,000 (Dh898,431) per week for the whole property, which has 22 beds in total, across six suites, three double rooms and a children’s suite. The price includes all scheduled meals, a week’s ski pass, Wi-Fi, parking, transfers between Munich, Innsbruck or Zurich airports and one 50-minute massage per person. Private ski lessons cost from €360 (Dh1,541) per day. Halal food is available on request.
