In the build-up to the 2006 US mid-term elections, which global media coverage at the time suggested would be a referendum on George W Bush's poor handling of the war in Iraq, I found myself in Las Vegas listening to his predecessor Bill Clinton address a Democratic Party campaign rally.
Mr Clinton was in Las Vegas to endorse a candidate and his speech focused on issues close to home such as local propositions being voted on. Iraq wasn’t mentioned once. Given the context, this is perhaps understandable but I found it surprising given all I had heard and seen in the preceding weeks on TV about what voters in America supposedly cared most about.
The Democrats were subsequently very successful in those elections, winning control of both houses of Congress. From outside the country, the pre-election narrative about the dissatisfaction over the Iraq war was seemingly confirmed. I remained unconvinced. It appeared more likely that Democrats struck the right chords with voters on the local issues that would impact their day-to-day lives far more immediately than whether a foreign conflict was being mishandled thousands of kilometres away.
George W Bush and the Republican Party suffered setbacks in the 2006 US mid-term elections, but not because of the Iraq war. AP Photo
My experience in 2006 showed me that you could never be too certain about what could be dominating the minds of US voters from such a distance away as the UAE. It also taught me to try to look past the media noise at the national and international level.
In the 2020 presidential election, so far much of the coverage has been about the coronavirus and President Donald Trump's response to the pandemic as the number of new cases in the US continues to rise. Covid-19 has wreaked havoc on the normal course of work and commerce. Millions of jobs have been lost and many people have been pushed into poverty in America. Many more are at risk of going hungry.
While Mr Trump has repeatedly touted what he believes to be a strong performance by his administration during his term in office, his Democratic rival Joe Biden has argued that worsening economic conditions are a direct result of his approach to the coronavirus. There have been more than 9.3 million recorded cases of infection in the US. While some 6 million have recovered, there have been more than 235,000 deaths.
It is a sorry story. One that has been given immense international media coverage, including of the many controversial comments and actions taken by Mr Trump – in the process himself becoming one of the millions infected and recovered. However, the coronavirus and the handling of the pandemic is not the most important matter for voters ahead of Tuesday's election, according to some opinion polls.
Supporters of US President Donald Trump gather for a "Trump Parade" in the state of Iowa on Saturday. AFP
The economy is the No 1 issue for Americans, according to a survey by Pew Research Centre in October. The economy is well ahead of other issues such as health care and Supreme Court appointments, which in turn take precedence over Covid-19.
Democrats seem to have decided that the economy is so important to voters that they are angry enough about the effect of the pandemic to vote out their Republican rivals, including Mr Trump. Superficially, this makes sense. Massive job losses and slower business activity in the months since March should dent, in the minds of voters, Mr Trump’s claims of how well the economy is doing.
The data, however, undermines this argument. The country's economic performance in the third quarter was robust thanks to $2 trillion in stimulus spending passed by Congress in March. This momentum will eventually peter out without further fiscal support, but Mr Trump promises he will deliver more if he wins. But even before the pandemic, many Americans have been benefitting and saving from Mr Trump's tax cuts for more than two years now. Largely, they banked rather than spent the money too.
People gather to eat at Palermo Pizzeria and Restaurant on Staten Island in New York City. The US economy has picked up lately. Reuters
I worry that we may all feel a little foolish come Wednesday, once the outcome of the election begins to emerge
Combined with stimulus cheques and higher than usual unemployment benefits during the pandemic, that has put money in their pockets over the summer. So, Americans may not be immediately feeling as if the economy is doing as badly as the Democrats – and the media coverage – say it is. They may ultimately reward Mr Trump for the performance of the past few months rather than punish him for a disaster that may only come to pass in the months ahead.
Not everyone in America sees Mr Trump’s time in office on the same terms as his opponents. Most will, of course, acknowledge the mistakes and the damage his administration has wrought at times. Yet each voter has the considerable weight of their own personal circumstances to factor into their decision on who to vote for. Added to that is the fact that we are going through the most uncertain period in a generation. Voters are being asked to balance what they cannot know with what they do not yet know. It is too much to ask.
Bill Clinton won the 1992 US presidential election on the mantra of 'it’s the economy, stupid'. Getty Images
We should begin to accept the idea that, with a significant proportion of American voters doing OK in terms of their personal finances, they would be unlikely to vote for an additional change of circumstances.
Going back once again to Mr Clinton; in 1992, during a campaign that saw him beat incumbent George HW Bush to win the White House, Mr Clinton’s strategist James Carville famously adopted the mantra of “it’s the economy, stupid”. In 2020, this phrase may bear repeating and I worry that we may all feel a little foolish come Wednesday, once the outcome of the election begins to emerge.
Mustafa Alrawi is an assistant editor-in-chief at The National
'Top Gun: Maverick'
Rating: 4/5
Directed by: Joseph Kosinski
Starring: Tom Cruise, Val Kilmer, Jennifer Connelly, Jon Hamm, Miles Teller, Glen Powell, Ed Harris
Moment of the day Dimuth Karunaratne had batted with plenty of pluck, and no little skill, in getting to within seven runs of a first-day century. Then, while he ran what he thought was a comfortable single to mid-on, his batting partner Dinesh Chandimal opted to stay at home. The opener was run out by the length of the pitch.
Stat of the day - 1 One six was hit on Day 1. The boundary was only breached 18 times in total over the course of the 90 overs. When it did arrive, the lone six was a thing of beauty, as Niroshan Dickwella effortlessly clipped Mohammed Amir over the square-leg boundary.
The verdict Three wickets down at lunch, on a featherbed wicket having won the toss, and Sri Lanka’s fragile confidence must have been waning. Then Karunaratne and Chandimal's alliance of precisely 100 gave them a foothold in the match. Dickwella’s free-spirited strokeplay meant the Sri Lankans were handily placed at 227 for four at the close.
Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah 5.10pm: Continous 5.45pm: Raging Torrent 6.20pm: West Acre 7pm: Flood Zone 7.40pm: Straight No Chaser 8.15pm: Romantic Warrior 8.50pm: Calandogan 9.30pm: Forever Young
The biog
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The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
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Call the hotline on 0502955999 or send "thenational" to the following numbers:
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'Peninsula'
Stars: Gang Dong-won, Lee Jung-hyun, Lee Ra
Director: Yeon Sang-ho
Rating: 2/5
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Fewer criminals put behind bars and more to serve sentences in the community, with short sentences scrapped and many inmates released earlier.
Greater use of curfews and exclusion zones to deliver tougher supervision than ever on criminals.
Explore wider powers for judges to punish offenders by blocking them from attending football matches, banning them from driving or travelling abroad through an expansion of ‘ancillary orders’.
More Intensive Supervision Courts to tackle the root causes of crime such as alcohol and drug abuse – forcing repeat offenders to take part in tough treatment programmes or face prison.
Key facilities
Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
Premier League-standard football pitch
400m Olympic running track
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600-seat auditorium
Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
Specialist robotics and science laboratories
AR and VR-enabled learning centres
Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Moment of the day When Dilruwan Perera dismissed Yasir Shah to end Pakistan’s limp resistance, the Sri Lankans charged around the field with the fevered delirium of a side not used to winning. Trouble was, they had not. The delivery was deemed a no ball. Sri Lanka had a nervy wait, but it was merely a stay of execution for the beleaguered hosts.
Stat of the day – 5 Pakistan have lost all 10 wickets on the fifth day of a Test five times since the start of 2016. It is an alarming departure for a side who had apparently erased regular collapses from their resume. “The only thing I can say, it’s not a mitigating excuse at all, but that’s a young batting line up, obviously trying to find their way,” said Mickey Arthur, Pakistan’s coach.
The verdict Test matches in the UAE are known for speeding up on the last two days, but this was extreme. The first two innings of this Test took 11 sessions to complete. The remaining two were done in less than four. The nature of Pakistan’s capitulation at the end showed just how difficult the transition is going to be in the post Misbah-ul-Haq era.
• Founded in 2014, Telr is a payment aggregator and gateway with an office in Silicon Oasis. It’s e-commerce entry plan costs Dh349 monthly (plus VAT). QR codes direct customers to an online payment page and merchants can generate payments through messaging apps.
• Business Bay’s Pallapay claims 40,000-plus active merchants who can invoice customers and receive payment by card. Fees range from 1.99 per cent plus Dh1 per transaction depending on payment method and location, such as online or via UAE mobile.
• Tap started in May 2013 in Kuwait, allowing Middle East businesses to bill, accept, receive and make payments online “easier, faster and smoother” via goSell and goCollect. It supports more than 10,000 merchants. Monthly fees range from US$65-100, plus card charges of 2.75-3.75 per cent and Dh1.2 per sale.
• 2checkout’s “all-in-one payment gateway and merchant account” accepts payments in 200-plus markets for 2.4-3.9 per cent, plus a Dh1.2-Dh1.8 currency conversion charge. The US provider processes online shop and mobile transactions and has 17,000-plus active digital commerce users.
• PayPal is probably the best-known online goods payment method - usually used for eBay purchases - but can be used to receive funds, providing everyone’s signed up. Costs from 2.9 per cent plus Dh1.2 per transaction.
