The ground beneath the Palestinian territories and Israel is shifting so rapidly that it is impossible to predict what is going to happen next. As I write this, Israeli forces may have decided to launch a ground invasion of Gaza, having determined that they cannot back down now, as Hamas continues to fire rockets into their territory in response to the violence on the streets of Jerusalem between Palestinians and Israelis.
Such an operation, however, will not only further enrage the residents of Gaza – the Palestinian territory under the control of Hamas – but those Arabs living within Israel as well. Whether the situation has slipped out of the Israeli government’s control or not, there is palpable anger on the streets days after Israeli right-wing extremists engaged in violence with ordinary Palestinians, including worshippers, around Al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem.
A ground invasion of Gaza could also overturn the balance of power in the country and its immediate neighbourhood, as it potentially entraps Israel on multiple fronts: within Israel itself, in Gaza to its west and in Lebanon to its north. The Iranian regime, which has allies in both Gaza and Lebanon and considers Israel to be a mortal enemy, may even consider firing its own rockets into the country for the first time. That calculation is not yet clear.
For the Israeli leadership, invasion could serve as a means to destroy Hamas by taking down Gaza’s military and civilian infrastructure, while containing its own home front and restoring deterrence. On the other hand, Hamas and its patrons in Tehran may seize the opportunity to defeat Israel through a barrage of missiles from the aforementioned fronts while weaponising Palestinian anger inside Israel.
Hezbollah, Tehran’s proxy group in Lebanon, is no doubt prepared to heat up the Lebanese front, the military logic behind which is that Israel may not be able to withstand attacks on two fronts. In all likelihood, Israel fears the Lebanese front more than it does the one in Gaza, because of the advanced Iranian military supplies delivered to Hezbollah.
In Tehran’s estimation, the international political climate could present it with an opportune moment to engage in confrontation with Israel.
One reason for this is the lack of effectiveness on the part of the members of the so-called Middle East Quartet – the UN, US, EU and Russia – who have historically been involved in mediating the Palestine-Israel peace process.
In the event of a confrontation, Tehran is betting on inaction from the European powers. It is anticipating little more than European sympathy for the Palestinians and its criticism of actions taken by Israel, Hamas and Hezbollah. Britain, France and Germany seem determined to revive the nuclear deal that the global powers had struck with Iran in 2015 before former US president Donald Trump pulled his country out of it. Talks are still under way in Vienna and Tehran is expecting them to maintain their focus on the same.
Russia, meanwhile, has long withdrawn from the role once played by the Soviet Union. It has become pragmatic and is closer to Israel than it was in the past. But for Moscow, the priority right now seems to be the upcoming meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Reykjavik on Thursday. They are expected to discuss a broad range of issues, including the future of Ukraine and the summit between US President Joe Biden and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, scheduled for next month.
US President Joe Biden will be under pressure to resolve the ongoing crisis in Palestine and Israel. AP Photo
In Tehran's estimation, the international political climate presents it with an opportune moment to engage in confrontation with Israel
As for the US, Mr Biden will be forced to pay attention to the developments in Israel. This is not just due to America’s strategic relationship with Israel, but also because he will probably view the current crisis through the lens of the nuclear talks in Vienna. The revival of the 2015 deal is a priority for his administration, too.
One of the hurdles for Mr Biden, however, is that he won’t be able to mediate between Iran and Israel with the purpose of deescalating the situation in Gaza, Lebanon or Israel itself – in the unlikely event any of these fronts heat up. At present, there is some sympathy for ordinary Palestinians in the US media but that could change if there is indeed a military confrontation between Israel on the one side and Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran on the other.
Given the inherent bias the US has towards Israel, the Islamic Republic will test the Biden administration and the American media equally on one of the most difficult issues for them. It will put the US president in a spot by trying to force him to choose between his administration's support for Israel and his own determination to revive the nuclear deal with Tehran.
Meanwhile, important though it is to consider the geopolitical ramifications of a potential invasion of Gaza, one must not forget the humanitarian crisis it could engender as well as the possible setbacks for Israel’s neighbouring countries, including Egypt and Lebanon.
With the Biden administration seemingly distracted and with the potential for Israel to make a mistake, Iran could see this as its golden opportunity to achieve its goals.
Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute and a columnist for The National
A demonstrator holding a Palestinian flag gestures during a protest over tension in Jerusalem and Israel-Gaza escalation, near Hawara checkpoint near Nablus in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, May 14, 2021. Reuters
A fireball and smoke billow up into the air during an Israeli air strike on Gaza City targeting the Ansar compound, linked to the Hamas movement, in the Gaza Strip. AFP
A nurse at Al Shifa Hospital holds a baby, who was pulled alive from under the rubble while seven other family members perished after an Israeli air strike struck Al Shati Refugee Camp in Gaza City. AFP
This satellite photo released by Planet Labs shows the Gaza Strip. AP Photo
A Palestinian girl sits on the floor next to her wounded grandmother at Al Shifa Hospital, after an Israeli air strike on Al Shati Refugee Camp in Gaza City. AFP
People inspect the damage done to Beit Hanoun after a night of Israeli raids in Gaza City, Gaza. Getty Images
A woman walks beside a broken asphalt, after an Israeli air strike on Beit Hanoun, in the northern Gaza Strip. Getty Images
A car drives through rubble, after an Israeli raid in northern Gaza City. Getty Images
Palestinian girls who fled home due to Israeli air and artillery strikes, wait to fill bottles with water at a school hosting refugees in Gaza city. AFP
Israeli police arrest a Palestinian demonstrator during a protest in Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood in east Jerusalem. EPA
Palestinian protesters hurl stones during clashes with Israeli forces in the Shuafat camp for Palestinian refugees, neighbouring the Israeli settlement of Ramat Shlomo, in Israeli-annexed east Jerusalem. AFP
The Uefa Nations League, introduced last year, has reached its final stage, to be played over five days in northern Portugal. The format of its closing tournament is compact, spread over two semi-finals, with the first, Portugal versus Switzerland in Porto on Wednesday evening, and the second, England against the Netherlands, in Guimaraes, on Thursday.
The winners of each semi will then meet at Porto’s Dragao stadium on Sunday, with the losing semi-finalists contesting a third-place play-off in Guimaraes earlier that day.
Qualifying for the final stage was via League A of the inaugural Nations League, in which the top 12 European countries according to Uefa's co-efficient seeding system were divided into four groups, the teams playing each other twice between September and November. Portugal, who finished above Italy and Poland, successfully bid to host the finals.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
David Einhorn closed out 2018 with his biggest annual loss ever for the 22-year-old Greenlight Capital.
The firm’s main hedge fund fell 9 per cent in December, extending this year’s decline to 34 percent, according to an investor update viewed by Bloomberg.
Greenlight posted some of the industry’s best returns in its early years, but has stumbled since losing more than 20 per cent in 2015.
Other value-investing managers have also struggled, as a decade of historically low interest rates and the rise of passive investing and quant trading pushed growth stocks past their inexpensive brethren. Three Bays Capital and SPO Partners & Co., which sought to make wagers on undervalued stocks, closed in 2018. Mr Einhorn has repeatedly expressed his frustration with the poor performance this year, while remaining steadfast in his commitment to value investing.
Greenlight, which posted gains only in May and October, underperformed both the broader market and its peers in 2018. The S&P 500 Index dropped 4.4 per cent, including dividends, while the HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index, an early indicator of industry performance, fell 7 per cent through December. 28.
At the start of the year, Greenlight managed $6.3 billion in assets, according to a regulatory filing. By May, the firm was down to $5.5bn.
This year’s winners of the US$4 million Sheikh Zayed Future Energy Prize will be recognised and rewarded in Abu Dhabi on January 15 as part of Abu Dhabi Sustainable Week, which runs in the capital from January 13 to 20.
From solutions to life-changing technologies, the aim is to discover innovative breakthroughs to create a new and sustainable energy future.
