With less than eight weeks to go, US President Donald Trump's re-election campaign is in serious, and apparently growing, trouble. But, although he just suffered two of the worst weeks of a troubled presidency, it's not too late for him to turn it around.
The news is not all disastrous for Mr Trump. A better-than-expected jobs report certainly helps, although his claims that employment figures are doing "fantastically well" are jarring, given the ongoing economic crisis.
The Republican Party is so centred on him it appears to stand for little else. And, most encouragingly, the race seems to be measurably tightening in some swing states, notably Florida and Nevada.
But the latest polls don't measure the impact of two devastating revelations that could severely harm his chances, especially since he cannot afford to lose many voters in his passionate but narrow coalition.
The new book by veteran journalist Bob Woodward, Rage, may prove to be one of the biggest blows ever to Mr Trump's political career. He rashly granted Mr Woodward 18 late-night interviews, most of which the reporter recorded with permission.
Read More from Hussein Ibish
Among many damaging revelations, one of the tapes from early February documents Mr Trump explaining that coronavirus is airborne, extremely deadly, much worse than the flu, and incredibly infectious. At the time and for many weeks after, he assured the public that the virus was under complete control, would magically disappear, was no worse than the flu, and everything would be perfectly fine.
What is it with Republican presidents and self-incriminating “smoking gun” tapes?
The potential damage with swing voters, a decreasing but still crucial group, could be devastating.
The White House at first denied Mr Trump had downplayed the virus, but he then conceded he had done so in an effort to prevent public panic. But given his penchant for stoking existential terror, especially on racial and ethnic grounds, this is highly unconvincing. And naturally there was no panic when these realities became widely understood.
Moreover, his aides confirm that the President was mainly concerned about a potential negative impact on the stock market if he had been truthful.
It's hard to estimate how many died as a consequence of this deliberate, admitted deception. But it is certainly a considerable figure as the US death toll from coronavirus is rapidly approaching 200,000.
Indeed, what's striking is not only how clearly Mr Trump understood the nature and likely impact of the virus, including a very early appreciation of its deadly nature even for younger people, but also his relatively well-informed, fairly lucid and reasonable tone. It almost sounds like a different person. Even though he was a successful reality TV star, it's still jarring to realise how much of his caustic, blustering public personality is in many ways a well-honed act.
Perhaps almost as damaging is a report by The Atlantic editor Jeffrey Goldberg that quotes highly placed former administration sources that Mr Trump routinely disparaged dead and injured US soldiers as "suckers" and "losers". The President has strenuously denied this, and allies have come to his defence.
But notably silent are two key former generals widely understood to be Mr Goldberg's sources: former defence secretary James Mattis and former White House chief of staff John Kelly. Both men have said that Mr Trump is unfit for office, and neither has denied being a source for, or contested, Mr Goldberg's report.
While Mr Trump has tried to dismiss the article as a "fabrication by the bad editor of a hostile publication", much or all of it was confirmed by Fox News, Associated Press, The Washington Post, The New York Times and others.
George W Bush's former speechwriter David Frum, who also writes for The Atlantic and The National, argues that, in effect "everybody knows this is true", not only because its presumed sources are confirming the account by their silence, but also because it is consistent with Mr Trump's overall mentality, previous comments about killed, wounded and captured soldiers, and apparent incomprehension of the concepts of national service and personal sacrifice.
For a politician who poses as an ultranationalist and champion of the military, the revelation is potentially devastating. Surveys indicate his support within the military rank and file has dropped considerably from 2016, and that was before Mr Goldberg's article.
Despite appearances, Mr Trump is not immune from political damage. At some point such attrition take its toll.
Yet there is time.
He still faces three debates with his Democratic opponent, former vice president Joe Biden, who could stumble badly or Mr Trump might perform brilliantly. The President has reportedly not been preparing much, but given his habitual reliance on "alternative facts" evidently conjured on the fly, he may not need to. But the debates probably won't be a turning point.
Mr Trump keeps speculating about a coronavirus vaccine before the election, but he knows he can't count on that or any other suddenly transformative event.
Instead, he's trying to forge a broader coalition than in 2016, including the Republican base, white working-class voters in the Midwest, non-multinational business interests and his strikingly strong support among Hispanic men under the age of 50 (many of whom consider themselves white).
Mr Biden has held a lead of around seven points consistently for many months, a highly unusual feat. As it stands, the election is shaping up to be a referendum on Mr Trump, which is bad news for a historically unpopular president.
He could still change the narrative and alter the equation, but he's going to need some unanticipated dramatic development, a spectacular blunder by his opponent, or, the only one of these he could guarantee, a new way of presenting himself. But he seems to have only one political persona, and it doesn't appear well-suited to the moment.
With little time left, he almost certainly needs to change the basic parameters of the election in order to win. It is still essentially Mr Trump versus Mr Trump, and the President is clearly losing.
Hussein Ibish is a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute and a US affairs columnist for The National
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
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What drives subscription retailing?
Once the domain of newspaper home deliveries, subscription model retailing has combined with e-commerce to permeate myriad products and services.
The concept has grown tremendously around the world and is forecast to thrive further, according to UnivDatos Market Insights’ report on recent and predicted trends in the sector.
The global subscription e-commerce market was valued at $13.2 billion (Dh48.5bn) in 2018. It is forecast to touch $478.2bn in 2025, and include the entertainment, fitness, food, cosmetics, baby care and fashion sectors.
The report says subscription-based services currently constitute “a small trend within e-commerce”. The US hosts almost 70 per cent of recurring plan firms, including leaders Dollar Shave Club, Hello Fresh and Netflix. Walmart and Sephora are among longer established retailers entering the space.
UnivDatos cites younger and affluent urbanites as prime subscription targets, with women currently the largest share of end-users.
That’s expected to remain unchanged until 2025, when women will represent a $246.6bn market share, owing to increasing numbers of start-ups targeting women.
Personal care and beauty occupy the largest chunk of the worldwide subscription e-commerce market, with changing lifestyles, work schedules, customisation and convenience among the chief future drivers.
On the menu
First course
▶ Emirati sea bass tartare Yuzu and labneh mayo, avocado, green herbs, fermented tomato water
▶ The Tale of the Oyster Oyster tartare, Bahraini gum berry pickle
Second course
▶ Local mackerel Sourdough crouton, baharat oil, red radish, zaatar mayo
▶ One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest Quail, smoked freekeh, cinnamon cocoa
Third course
▶ Bahraini bouillabaisse Venus clams, local prawns, fishfarm seabream, farro
▶ Lamb 2 ways Braised lamb, crispy lamb chop, bulgur, physalis
Dessert
▶ Lumi Black lemon ice cream, pistachio, pomegranate
▶ Black chocolate bar Dark chocolate, dates, caramel, camel milk ice cream
Results
Stage three:
1. Stefan Bissegger (SUI) EF Education-EasyPost, in 9-43
2. Filippo Ganna (ITA) Ineos Grenadiers, at 7s
3. Tom Dumoulin (NED) Jumbo-Visma, at 14s
4. Tadej Pogacar (SLO) UAE-Team Emirates, at 18s
5. Joao Almeida (POR) UAE-Team Emirates, at 22s
6. Mikkel Bjerg (DEN) UAE-Team Emirates, at 24s
General Classification:
1. Stefan Bissegger (SUI) EF Education-EasyPost, in 9-13-02
2. Filippo Ganna (ITA) Ineos Grenadiers, at 7s
3. Jasper Philipsen (BEL) Alpecin Fenix, at 12s
4. Tom Dumoulin (NED) Jumbo-Visma, at 14s
5. Tadej Pogacar (SLO) UAE-Team Emirates, at 18s
6. Joao Almeida (POR) UAE-Team Emirates, at 22s
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THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now
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ETFs explained
Exhchange traded funds are bought and sold like shares, but operate as index-tracking funds, passively following their chosen indices, such as the S&P 500, FTSE 100 and the FTSE All World, plus a vast range of smaller exchanges and commodities, such as gold, silver, copper sugar, coffee and oil.
ETFs have zero upfront fees and annual charges as low as 0.07 per cent a year, which means you get to keep more of your returns, as actively managed funds can charge as much as 1.5 per cent a year.
There are thousands to choose from, with the five biggest providers BlackRock’s iShares range, Vanguard, State Street Global Advisors SPDR ETFs, Deutsche Bank AWM X-trackers and Invesco PowerShares.
Singham Again
Director: Rohit Shetty
Stars: Ajay Devgn, Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ranveer Singh, Akshay Kumar, Tiger Shroff, Deepika Padukone
Rating: 3/5
Specs
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The National Archives, Abu Dhabi
Founded over 50 years ago, the National Archives collects valuable historical material relating to the UAE, and is the oldest and richest archive relating to the Arabian Gulf.
Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
Infiniti QX80 specs
Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6
Power: 450hp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: From Dh450,000, Autograph model from Dh510,000
Available: Now
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Herc's Adventures
Developer: Big Ape Productions
Publisher: LucasArts
Console: PlayStation 1 & 5, Sega Saturn
Rating: 4/5
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
The specs: 2018 Mazda CX-5
Price, base / as tested: Dh89,000 / Dh130,000
Engine: 2.5-litre four-cylinder
Power: 188hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 251Nm @ 4,000rpm
Transmission: Six-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 7.1L / 100km
War
Director: Siddharth Anand
Cast: Hrithik Roshan, Tiger Shroff, Ashutosh Rana, Vaani Kapoor
Rating: Two out of five stars
The First Monday in May
Director: Andrew Rossi
Starring: Anna Wintour, Karl Lagerfeld, John Paul Gaultier, Rihanna
Three stars
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SPECS
Nissan 370z Nismo
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Transmission: seven-speed automatic
Power: 363hp
Torque: 560Nm
Price: Dh184,500
Some of Darwish's last words
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
What's in the deal?
Agreement aims to boost trade by £25.5bn a year in the long run, compared with a total of £42.6bn in 2024
India will slash levies on medical devices, machinery, cosmetics, soft drinks and lamb.
India will also cut automotive tariffs to 10% under a quota from over 100% currently.
Indian employees in the UK will receive three years exemption from social security payments
India expects 99% of exports to benefit from zero duty, raising opportunities for textiles, marine products, footwear and jewellery
In-demand jobs and monthly salaries
- Technology expert in robotics and automation: Dh20,000 to Dh40,000
- Energy engineer: Dh25,000 to Dh30,000
- Production engineer: Dh30,000 to Dh40,000
- Data-driven supply chain management professional: Dh30,000 to Dh50,000
- HR leader: Dh40,000 to Dh60,000
- Engineering leader: Dh30,000 to Dh55,000
- Project manager: Dh55,000 to Dh65,000
- Senior reservoir engineer: Dh40,000 to Dh55,000
- Senior drilling engineer: Dh38,000 to Dh46,000
- Senior process engineer: Dh28,000 to Dh38,000
- Senior maintenance engineer: Dh22,000 to Dh34,000
- Field engineer: Dh6,500 to Dh7,500
- Field supervisor: Dh9,000 to Dh12,000
- Field operator: Dh5,000 to Dh7,000
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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United States
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China
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3.
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UAE
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4.
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Japan
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5
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Norway
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6.
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Canada
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Singapore
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Australia
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Saudi Arabia
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DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE
Starring: Ryan Reynolds, Hugh Jackman, Emma Corrin
Director: Shawn Levy
Rating: 3/5
THE BIO:
Favourite holiday destination: Thailand. I go every year and I’m obsessed with the fitness camps there.
Favourite book: Born to Run by Christopher McDougall. It’s an amazing story about barefoot running.
Favourite film: A League of their Own. I used to love watching it in my granny’s house when I was seven.
Personal motto: Believe it and you can achieve it.
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The bio
Job: Coder, website designer and chief executive, Trinet solutions
School: Year 8 pupil at Elite English School in Abu Hail, Deira
Role Models: Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk
Dream City: San Francisco
Hometown: Dubai
City of birth: Thiruvilla, Kerala
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
