Last month, the French government released an updated version of its Strategic Review – the French equivalent of the US's National Security Strategy. It was last updated just three years ago, but Paris deemed it necessary to acknowledge the major disruptions brought about by the Covid-19 pandemic. And if defence and security reviews are usually sombre in both substance and tone, this report paints a dark picture of the world in 2021. It also reflects how France sees both itself and Europe in a world unsettled by rising US-China-Russia competition and the behaviour of two troublesome Middle East states.
It begins by highlighting major trends shaping French national security amid growing instability in its two areas of influence: the Sahel and the Middle East.
West Africa remains a key area of involvement for the French military. But eight years after its intervention in Mali to oust militant groups – and with more than 5,000 soldiers still deployed across sub-Saharan Africa – its presence is being questioned both in Paris and in some African capitals. Local states are still mostly incapable of containing terror attacks on a sustained basis, yet France's military footprint has become a source of popular anger. The review does not offer a new path. A few days before its release, however, President Emmanuel Macron announced that his government would "adjust its efforts" in the region – a euphemism for gradual troop withdrawal.
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In the section devoted to the Middle East, the paper points to the assertiveness of Iran and Turkey as exacerbating factors in the various crises affecting the region. It states that the previous US administration's "maximum pressure" approach was ineffective in reining in Tehran's destabilising role in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon. It also underlines Iran's non-compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal – an assessment that will disappoint those hoping for a mere resumption of the agreement between the regime and the world's major powers.
Interestingly, although not surprisingly, the document dedicates a significant amount of ink to Ankara's role in the world. Even though Turkey is not explicitly portrayed as a hostile entity, it is put on a par with Iran. The ambitions of Turkey in the Middle East, particularly in Libya, are questioned, as is its impact on the regional security architecture. The review is no doubt a reflection of the deteriorating relations between France and Turkey over the past few years.
The paper also takes stock of the escalating competition between the US, China, and Russia and its negative consequences for Europe. Paris has trodden a delicate path in dealing with Washington, Moscow and Beijing. As part of its core strategy, France remains a key ally of the US and military co-operation remains strong both bilaterally and through the framework of Nato. In fact, Paris relies on US intelligence and logistical support in the Sahel – although this may not last given Washington's gradual shift in focus and redeployment of resources to Asia. It is no coincidence, therefore, that Florence Parly, France's Minister of the Armed Forces, called for a continuation of this arrangement on the day US President Joe Biden was inaugurated.
While acknowledging the benefits of the French-American alliance, Mr Macron also aimed to "reset" relations with Russia, which deteriorated after Moscow's annexation of Crimea in 2014. This renewal led to a strategic dialogue between Paris and Moscow that has so far proved inconclusive. Likewise, just as French officials often take a cue from Washington to criticise Beijing's strategic activities in the South-China Sea and elsewhere, Mr Macron has expressed support for the EU-China trade deal signed in December, an agreement now likely to complicate the US-EU dialogue on China.
Nearly four years after Mr Macron's election, the Strategic Review reflects the struggles of a middle power such as France to defend its interests on the world stage. Despite his age – Mr Macron is only 43 – he has embraced a view of international affairs that is deeply anchored in traditional French geopolitical thought. In interviews, he has often referred to former president Charles de Gaulle as a model. One of the most influential voices at the Elysee Palace is Hubert Vedrine, a former foreign minister and a proponent of "French realpolitik", who once described French-American relations as "allied but not aligned".
France been among the most active supporters of European 'strategic autonomy'
Mr Macron aims to position France as a country that continues to matter within the context of great-power competition. If France still sees its relationship with the US as vital to its interests, it has also been among the most active supporters of European "strategic autonomy". Mr Macron believes that heightened US-China competition and the erosion of multilateralism call for a stronger EU – a belief further cemented by America's transactional approach to foreign relations, especially with Europe, under the Trump administration.
That the Strategic Review was released only days after Mr Biden was sworn in also indicates that Paris does not consider the Trump presidency an anomaly. It believes that, despite the Biden presidency, American retrenchment from the world stage is a long-term trend.
The paper does not entertain any illusions on the challenges that lie ahead. It supports recent increases in defence spending, both in France and more broadly in Europe, while acknowledging that pandemic-related costs could force budget cuts in the immediate future. It this context, the summary is both clear and makes for a sobering read: that the risk of a "strategic downgrading of Europe and its disappearance from world affairs can no longer be dismissed".
Jean-Loup Samaan is an Abu Dhabi-based researcher in strategic affairs
TV: World Cup Qualifier 2018 matches will be aired on on OSN Sports HD Cricket channel
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The Great Derangement: Climate Change and the Unthinkable
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
ELIO
Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett
Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
Rating: 4/5
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
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The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
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Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
The biog
Favourite hobby: taking his rescue dog, Sally, for long walks.
Favourite book: anything by Stephen King, although he said the films rarely match the quality of the books
Favourite film: The Shawshank Redemption stands out as his favourite movie, a classic King novella
Favourite music: “I have a wide and varied music taste, so it would be unfair to pick a single song from blues to rock as a favourite"
Key fixtures from January 5-7
Watford v Bristol City
Liverpool v Everton
Brighton v Crystal Palace
Bournemouth v AFC Fylde or Wigan
Coventry v Stoke City
Nottingham Forest v Arsenal
Manchester United v Derby
Forest Green or Exeter v West Brom
Tottenham v AFC Wimbledon
Fleetwood or Hereford v Leicester City
Manchester City v Burnley
Shrewsbury v West Ham United
Wolves v Swansea City
Newcastle United v Luton Town
Fulham v Southampton
Norwich City v Chelsea
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
hall of shame
SUNDERLAND 2002-03
No one has ended a Premier League season quite like Sunderland. They lost each of their final 15 games, taking no points after January. They ended up with 19 in total, sacking managers Peter Reid and Howard Wilkinson and losing 3-1 to Charlton when they scored three own goals in eight minutes.
SUNDERLAND 2005-06
Until Derby came along, Sunderland’s total of 15 points was the Premier League’s record low. They made it until May and their final home game before winning at the Stadium of Light while they lost a joint record 29 of their 38 league games.
HUDDERSFIELD 2018-19
Joined Derby as the only team to be relegated in March. No striker scored until January, while only two players got more assists than goalkeeper Jonas Lossl. The mid-season appointment Jan Siewert was to end his time as Huddersfield manager with a 5.3 per cent win rate.
ASTON VILLA 2015-16
Perhaps the most inexplicably bad season, considering they signed Idrissa Gueye and Adama Traore and still only got 17 points. Villa won their first league game, but none of the next 19. They ended an abominable campaign by taking one point from the last 39 available.
FULHAM 2018-19
Terrible in different ways. Fulham’s total of 26 points is not among the lowest ever but they contrived to get relegated after spending over £100 million (Dh457m) in the transfer market. Much of it went on defenders but they only kept two clean sheets in their first 33 games.
LA LIGA: Sporting Gijon, 13 points in 1997-98.
BUNDESLIGA: Tasmania Berlin, 10 points in 1965-66
Generation Start-up: Awok company profile
Started: 2013
Founder: Ulugbek Yuldashev
Sector: e-commerce
Size: 600 plus
Stage: still in talks with VCs
Principal Investors: self-financed by founder
Quick pearls of wisdom
Focus on gratitude: And do so deeply, he says. “Think of one to three things a day that you’re grateful for. It needs to be specific, too, don’t just say ‘air.’ Really think about it. If you’re grateful for, say, what your parents have done for you, that will motivate you to do more for the world.”
Know how to fight: Shetty married his wife, Radhi, three years ago (he met her in a meditation class before he went off and became a monk). He says they’ve had to learn to respect each other’s “fighting styles” – he’s a talk it-out-immediately person, while she needs space to think. “When you’re having an argument, remember, it’s not you against each other. It’s both of you against the problem. When you win, they lose. If you’re on a team you have to win together.”
Ads on social media can 'normalise' drugs
A UK report on youth social media habits commissioned by advocacy group Volteface found a quarter of young people were exposed to illegal drug dealers on social media.
The poll of 2,006 people aged 16-24 assessed their exposure to drug dealers online in a nationally representative survey.
Of those admitting to seeing drugs for sale online, 56 per cent saw them advertised on Snapchat, 55 per cent on Instagram and 47 per cent on Facebook.
Cannabis was the drug most pushed by online dealers, with 63 per cent of survey respondents claiming to have seen adverts on social media for the drug, followed by cocaine (26 per cent) and MDMA/ecstasy, with 24 per cent of people.
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
