Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had a resounding victory at the polls on Sunday. Not only did he manage to win a majority of votes for a first round victory but also, through his alliance with the arch-nationalist party MHP, the National Movement Party, he has secured a parliamentary majority.
He is, therefore, set to rule unencumbered for the next five years under an enhanced presidential system that reduces parliament to a rubber stamp.
These results could not have been better for Mr Erdogan. To be sure, his own Justice and Development Party (AKP) lost votes, down from 49 to 42 per cent. But while this might be bothersome, it is largely inconsequential in the short-term.
The pro-Kurdish People’s Democracy Party (HDP) succeeded in crossing the 10 per cent threshold and getting into parliament despite the AKP’s Herculean efforts to thwart its candidates – by arresting poll-watchers, moving ballot boxes and using emergency law to prevent gatherings (indeed, the HDP’s own leader Selahattin Demirtas, a presidential contender, is still in jail).
But paradoxically, the opposition’s progress will end up benefiting Mr Erdogan. He will be able to deflect criticism – especially that coming from Europeans – of election manipulation and unfairness by pointing out that the Kurds did manage to get into parliament after all.
Had the opposition won a majority in parliament then the HDP’s presence would have significantly mattered, which is why Mr Erdogan used all the powers of the state apparatus to thwart them.
The opposition is bound to be disillusioned; after all, the main opposition candidate, Muharrem Ince, who was recruited to run by the CHP, the Republican People’s Party leadership, had managed to inject a dose of excitement and dynamism rarely seen before into opposition ranks. The staid CHP leadership that routinely spews dull and outmoded ideas was replaced by a charismatic, energetic and quick-on-his-feet candidate whose rallies were filled with enthusiastic, full capacity crowds. Mr Ince’s performance convinced many observers that there would be a second presidential round between the two top contenders.
But there are two factors the opposition in its enthusiasm overlooked. The first is the fact that for Mr Erdogan and his cronies, losing was never an option. They were ready to deploy – and they did – all the resources of the state and the media they controlled, which today amounts to about 90 per cent of print and television outlets. The AKP introduced unprecedented loopholes into the electoral laws that undermined the once unassailable fairness of the voting system.
Like all other institutions, the electoral one is now under the control of the party.
Second, the AKP is a party that is in continuous electoral mobilisation mode. Its local apparatus is extremely effective, has direct knowledge about voters at the local level, can mobilise supporters, bring them to the polls and ensure high participation rates.
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A year after the failed coup, Erdogan tightens his control of Turkey's state structures
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Only the HDP in Turkey’s predominantly Kurdish provinces is a match for it. After 15 years in power, the AKP and the state have fused into one organism to create a system of rent distribution that first amply enriches cronies but also makes sure that supporters down the food chain also get a share, however small. This has succeeded in attaching a significant segment of the population to the AKP.
One can add to this an information system – one cannot call it a press anymore – that regurgitates the message from above 24/7.
Not only does the CHP have none of these advantages but it also has always had an aversion to politics at the retail level. This will have to change if it wants to be competitive in the future. Perhaps a brand new leadership that overhauls the party from top to bottom might succeed.
But with AKP ensconced, what can we now expect? Mr Erdogan is certainly emboldened. He will see this as a vindication of everything he has done and plans to do. He said as much in the first of his victory speeches.
Turkey is now formally a personalised autocracy with all powers concentrated in the presidency.
This was the plan all along; he did not build a gargantuan presidential palace because he envisioned luxurious accommodation but because he planned to run the whole country from one location. Space is needed for all of his advisers and others he will be appointing.
For the countries of the Arabian Gulf, an empowered Mr Erdogan spells trouble. He is intent on augmenting Turkey’s military and diplomatic footprint beyond his immediate neighbourhood, Iraq and Syria.
He has already established a military base in Djibouti, deployed troops to Qatar and signed an agreement with Sudan.
It is too early to tell what Mr Erdogan has in mind other than this being the beginning of an effort to emulate the grandeur of the Ottoman empire or become a lynchpin of sorts in the region.
Only great powers have far-flung bases. That said, unexpected opportunities that would not normally have been there could present themselves precisely because presence is in itself a form of action.
Still, Mr Erdogan, however well-established he might feel, faces two dilemmas: under the new constitution he is now president and also leader of the AKP – that is, his office is a political one now.
These elections demonstrated that the country is deeply divided; the divisions are likely to deepen and, in turn, governing the country will become more challenging.
Second, the reason he called for early elections – originally scheduled for 2019 – was because he feared the political ramifications of a potential economic downturn.
Turkish growth over the last two decades has been impressive but was largely fuelled by construction and foreign borrowing, especially recently, at a time of worldwide policies that favoured quantitative easing by the major central banks.
This has now come to an end and a number of large conglomerates in Turkey are in desperate need of bailouts.
The election might be over but the economic doldrums will surely come. Mr Erdogan has a certain margin of freedom of action he did not have a week ago.
However, it is worth remembering that under the new politicised presidential system, the buck stops with him and him alone.
Henri Barkey is a professor in international relations at Lehigh University and senior fellow for Middle East Studies in the Council on Foreign Relations
Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
South Africa squad
Faf du Plessis (captain), Hashim Amla, Temba Bavuma, Quinton de Kock (wicketkeeper), Theunis de Bruyn, AB de Villiers, Dean Elgar, Heinrich Klaasen (wicketkeeper), Keshav Maharaj, Aiden Markram, Morne Morkel, Wiaan Mulder, Lungi Ngidi, Vernon Philander and Kagiso Rabada.
ENGLAND SQUAD
Joe Root (captain), Dom Sibley, Rory Burns, Dan Lawrence, Ben Stokes, Ollie Pope, Ben Foakes (wicketkeeper), Moeen Ali, Olly Stone, Chris Woakes, Jack Leach, Stuart Broad
Europe’s rearming plan
- Suspend strict budget rules to allow member countries to step up defence spending
- Create new "instrument" providing €150 billion of loans to member countries for defence investment
- Use the existing EU budget to direct more funds towards defence-related investment
- Engage the bloc's European Investment Bank to drop limits on lending to defence firms
- Create a savings and investments union to help companies access capital
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The National photo project
Chris Whiteoak, a photographer at The National, spent months taking some of Jacqui Allan's props around the UAE, positioning them perfectly in front of some of the country's most recognisable landmarks. He placed a pirate on Kite Beach, in front of the Burj Al Arab, the Cheshire Cat from Alice in Wonderland at the Burj Khalifa, and brought one of Allan's snails (Freddie, which represents her grandfather) to the Dubai Frame. In Abu Dhabi, a dinosaur went to Al Ain's Jebel Hafeet. And a flamingo was taken all the way to the Hatta Mountains. This special project suitably brings to life the quirky nature of Allan's prop shop (and Allan herself!).
Dhadak 2
Director: Shazia Iqbal
Starring: Siddhant Chaturvedi, Triptii Dimri
Rating: 1/5
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
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What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
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Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
Company Fact Box
Company name/date started: Abwaab Technologies / September 2019
Founders: Hamdi Tabbaa, co-founder and CEO. Hussein Alsarabi, co-founder and CTO
Based: Amman, Jordan
Sector: Education Technology
Size (employees/revenue): Total team size: 65. Full-time employees: 25. Revenue undisclosed
Stage: early-stage startup
Investors: Adam Tech Ventures, Endure Capital, Equitrust, the World Bank-backed Innovative Startups SMEs Fund, a London investment fund, a number of former and current executives from Uber and Netflix, among others.
MATCH INFO
Rugby World Cup (all times UAE)
Third-place play-off: New Zealand v Wales, Friday, 1pm
If you go
Flying
Despite the extreme distance, flying to Fairbanks is relatively simple, requiring just one transfer in Seattle, which can be reached directly from Dubai with Emirates for Dh6,800 return.
Touring
Gondwana Ecotours’ seven-day Polar Bear Adventure starts in Fairbanks in central Alaska before visiting Kaktovik and Utqiarvik on the North Slope. Polar bear viewing is highly likely in Kaktovik, with up to five two-hour boat tours included. Prices start from Dh11,500 per person, with all local flights, meals and accommodation included; gondwanaecotours.com
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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500 People from Gaza enter France
115 Special programme for artists
25 Evacuation of injured and sick
Our legal advisor
Ahmad El Sayed is Senior Associate at Charles Russell Speechlys, a law firm headquartered in London with offices in the UK, Europe, the Middle East and Hong Kong.
Experience: Commercial litigator who has assisted clients with overseas judgments before UAE courts. His specialties are cases related to banking, real estate, shareholder disputes, company liquidations and criminal matters as well as employment related litigation.
Education: Sagesse University, Beirut, Lebanon, in 2005.
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
BRIEF SCORES
England 353 and 313-8 dec
(B Stokes 112, A Cook 88; M Morkel 3-70, K Rabada 3-85)
(J Bairstow 63, T Westley 59, J Root 50; K Maharaj 3-50)
South Africa 175 and 252
(T Bavuma 52; T Roland-Jones 5-57, J Anderson 3-25)
(D Elgar 136; M Ali 4-45, T Roland-Jones 3-72)
Result: England won by 239 runs
England lead four-match series 2-1
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
