This weekend, the US government shutdown – the longest in history – will enter its fifth week. As public outrage grows, many elected Republicans are becoming markedly distressed that their party, and especially US president Donald Trump, are being blamed.
Mr Trump originally claimed that he would be "proud" to force the shutdown if Congress refused him $5 billion for his border wall and pledged not to blame the Democrats. Yet as soon as the shutdown began, he was quick to accuse them of being responsible –but Americans aren't buying it. A Reuters poll earlier this month found more than half blamed him for the shutdown while only one in four backed his stance.
Both the wall and the shutdown are generally unpopular. So why is Mr Trump insisting on this dangerous and apparently self-destructive showdown?
Most explanations focus on his personality. He is stubborn and does not want to accept defeat. He is also politically naive and got into this stand-off without a viable strategy for winning or ending it.
But in fact, this political highwire act reflects Mr Trump at his most canny and calculating.
Senate Republicans are furious because they voted for a politically hazardous budget compromise with Democrats after Vice President Mike Pence assured both sides the president would support it.
But when far-right commentators excoriated Mr Trump for backing down on wall funding, he refused to sign the interim spending bill and initiated the shutdown.
Mr Trump is convinced that his anti-immigrant stance, through which he poses as the champion of white American tribalist interests, was key to his 2016 victory and will be critical to his re-election in 2020. But he needs his political base to stand firmly behind him, not just in two years but in the coming weeks.
The president is looking increasingly exposed, legally and politically. Questions about his relationship with Russia are intensifying. This weekend, the plot thickened when the news site Buzzfeed reported that the president allegedly ordered his former lawyer Michael Cohen, currently serving three years in prison, to lie to Congress by denying that work on a skyscraper project in Russia continued well into the 2016 campaign. Special counsel Robert Mueller, who is investigating Russian interference in the election, took the rare step of issuing a statement to dispute the story's accuracy.
Suspicions are growing about the nature of the relationship between the president and Moscow. Mr Trump seriously discussed withdrawing the US from Nato last year, Russia's ultimate strategic goal. Meanwhile his former campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, who was convicted of financial crimes last year, is now accused of passing campaign data to Russia. Mr Trump’s lawyer Rudy Giuliani denied Mr Trump colluded with Russia but suggested others in the campaign might have done so. Most perturbingly, the FBI initiated an unprecedented counter-intelligence investigation into whether the sitting president was a national security threat acting on behalf of Moscow.
The investigation began after Mr Trump fired then FBI director James Comey in May 2017, saying he was fed up because "this Russia thing" was a "made-up story" and reportedly telling senior Russian officials, according to the New York Times, that he had been under "great pressure" but now "that's taken off".
Mr Mueller's statement in response to the Buzzfeed story was exceptionally vague and could mean that the story is false – or that his office wants to distance itself from the leak, thought to come from two anonymous law enforcement sources. Buzzfeed has not identified its sources but they could be New York prosecutors rather than part of the Mueller team.
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Read more from Hussein Ibish:
There is a disconnect between what Trump says and what foreign policy hawks think
Republicans face tough choices in a turbulent year
The last of the grown-ups has left the Trump administration
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If Mr Trump suborned perjury before Congress, his presidency would be effectively over. More than just a serious crime, obstruction of justice was central to the articles of impeachment tabled against both Republican Richard Nixon and Democrat Bill Clinton.
While Mr Mueller’s statement casts significant doubt on the specific claim, many legal and political walls still seem to be closing in on Mr Trump.
Impeachment is no longer a far-fetched scenario. Indeed, Mr Trump could find himself in the dock in 2021 rather than back in the Oval Office.
Even if he never faces such extreme legal jeopardy, his political vulnerability is only going to intensify as Democrats in the House of Representatives begin investigating his activities with the vast congressional oversight powers that Republicans have so far failed to deploy.
So Mr Trump needs his base to stick with him. He must ensure that they and extreme right-wing pundits continue to regard him as an indispensable leader and hold Senate Republicans in line.
The issue that cements Mr Trump to his nativist base is opposition to immigration, as symbolised by the wall.
Mr Trump appears to be preparing to propose a compromise to the Democrats. But he has also threatened to declare a national emergency as an autocratic way to bypass the political process and fund the wall, despite Congress's otherwise absolute power of the purse.
Even if he ultimately fails to secure funding for the wall, as seems likely, as long as his base believes he is doing everything possible to fight tooth and nail for it, he can probably retain their devotion.
For Mr Trump, that’s not just a re-election strategy. It is a survival strategy for the here-and-now.
Hussein Ibish is a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
Armies of Sand
By Kenneth Pollack (Oxford University Press)
Islamic%20Architecture%3A%20A%20World%20History
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hall of shame
SUNDERLAND 2002-03
No one has ended a Premier League season quite like Sunderland. They lost each of their final 15 games, taking no points after January. They ended up with 19 in total, sacking managers Peter Reid and Howard Wilkinson and losing 3-1 to Charlton when they scored three own goals in eight minutes.
SUNDERLAND 2005-06
Until Derby came along, Sunderland’s total of 15 points was the Premier League’s record low. They made it until May and their final home game before winning at the Stadium of Light while they lost a joint record 29 of their 38 league games.
HUDDERSFIELD 2018-19
Joined Derby as the only team to be relegated in March. No striker scored until January, while only two players got more assists than goalkeeper Jonas Lossl. The mid-season appointment Jan Siewert was to end his time as Huddersfield manager with a 5.3 per cent win rate.
ASTON VILLA 2015-16
Perhaps the most inexplicably bad season, considering they signed Idrissa Gueye and Adama Traore and still only got 17 points. Villa won their first league game, but none of the next 19. They ended an abominable campaign by taking one point from the last 39 available.
FULHAM 2018-19
Terrible in different ways. Fulham’s total of 26 points is not among the lowest ever but they contrived to get relegated after spending over £100 million (Dh457m) in the transfer market. Much of it went on defenders but they only kept two clean sheets in their first 33 games.
LA LIGA: Sporting Gijon, 13 points in 1997-98.
BUNDESLIGA: Tasmania Berlin, 10 points in 1965-66
Villains
Queens of the Stone Age
Matador
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
I Feel Pretty
Dir: Abby Kohn/Mark Silverstein
Starring: Amy Schumer, Michelle Williams, Emily Ratajkowski, Rory Scovel
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Mental%20health%20support%20in%20the%20UAE
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The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
Director: Laxman Utekar
Cast: Vicky Kaushal, Akshaye Khanna, Diana Penty, Vineet Kumar Singh, Rashmika Mandanna
Rating: 1/5
The%20specs
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Stuck in a job without a pay rise? Here's what to do
Chris Greaves, the managing director of Hays Gulf Region, says those without a pay rise for an extended period must start asking questions – both of themselves and their employer.
“First, are they happy with that or do they want more?” he says. “Job-seeking is a time-consuming, frustrating and long-winded affair so are they prepared to put themselves through that rigmarole? Before they consider that, they must ask their employer what is happening.”
Most employees bring up pay rise queries at their annual performance appraisal and find out what the company has in store for them from a career perspective.
Those with no formal appraisal system, Mr Greaves says, should ask HR or their line manager for an assessment.
“You want to find out how they value your contribution and where your job could go,” he says. “You’ve got to be brave enough to ask some questions and if you don’t like the answers then you have to develop a strategy or change jobs if you are prepared to go through the job-seeking process.”
For those that do reach the salary negotiation with their current employer, Mr Greaves says there is no point in asking for less than 5 per cent.
“However, this can only really have any chance of success if you can identify where you add value to the business (preferably you can put a monetary value on it), or you can point to a sustained contribution above the call of duty or to other achievements you think your employer will value.”
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Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
From Zero
Artist: Linkin Park
Label: Warner Records
Number of tracks: 11
Rating: 4/5
Rankings
ATP: 1. Novak Djokovic (SRB) 10,955 pts; 2. Rafael Nadal (ESP) 8,320; 3. Alexander Zverev (GER) 6,475 ( 1); 5. Juan Martin Del Potro (ARG) 5,060 ( 1); 6. Kevin Anderson (RSA) 4,845 ( 1); 6. Roger Federer (SUI) 4,600 (-3); 7. Kei Nishikori (JPN) 4,110 ( 2); 8. Dominic Thiem (AUT) 3,960; 9. John Isner (USA) 3,155 ( 1); 10. Marin Cilic (CRO) 3,140 (-3)
WTA: 1. Naomi Osaka (JPN) 7,030 pts ( 3); 2. Petra Kvitova (CZE) 6,290 ( 4); 3. Simona Halep (ROM) 5,582 (-2); 4. Sloane Stephens (USA) 5,307 ( 1); 5. Karolina Pliskova (CZE) 5,100 ( 3); 6. Angelique Kerber (GER) 4,965 (-4); 7. Elina Svitolina (UKR) 4,940; 8. Kiki Bertens (NED) 4,430 ( 1); 9. Caroline Wozniacki (DEN) 3,566 (-6); 10. Aryna Sabalenka (BLR) 3,485 ( 1)
UAE Falcons
Carly Lewis (captain), Emily Fensome, Kelly Loy, Isabel Affley, Jessica Cronin, Jemma Eley, Jenna Guy, Kate Lewis, Megan Polley, Charlie Preston, Becki Quigley and Sophie Siffre. Deb Jones and Lucia Sdao – coach and assistant coach.
ENGLAND SQUAD
Goalkeepers Henderson, Pickford, Pope.
Defenders Alexander-Arnold, Chilwell, Coady, Dier, Gomez, Keane, Maguire, Maitland-Niles, Mings, Saka, Trippier, Walker.
Midfielders Henderson, Mount, Phillips, Rice, Ward-Prowse, Winks.
Forwards Abraham, Barnes, Calvert-Lewin, Grealish, Ings, Kane, Rashford, Sancho, Sterling.
The chef's advice
Troy Payne, head chef at Abu Dhabi’s newest healthy eatery Sanderson’s in Al Seef Resort & Spa, says singles need to change their mindset about how they approach the supermarket.
“They feel like they can’t buy one cucumber,” he says. “But I can walk into a shop – I feed two people at home – and I’ll walk into a shop and I buy one cucumber, I’ll buy one onion.”
Mr Payne asks for the sticker to be placed directly on each item, rather than face the temptation of filling one of the two-kilogram capacity plastic bags on offer.
The chef also advises singletons not get too hung up on “organic”, particularly high-priced varieties that have been flown in from far-flung locales. Local produce is often grown sustainably, and far cheaper, he says.
HWJN
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The%20specs
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The%20specs
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
SHAITTAN
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECreator%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESteven%20Knight%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%C2%A0%3C%2Fstrong%3EMark%20Ruffalo%2C%20Hugh%20Laurie%2C%20Aria%20Mia%20Loberti%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E1%2F5%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The Perfect Couple
Starring: Nicole Kidman, Liev Schreiber, Jack Reynor
Creator: Jenna Lamia
Rating: 3/5
You Were Never Really Here
Director: Lynne Ramsay
Starring: Joaquim Phoenix, Ekaterina Samsonov
Four stars
The Limehouse Golem
Director: Juan Carlos Medina
Cast: Olivia Cooke, Bill Nighy, Douglas Booth
Three stars
Bert van Marwijk factfile
Born: May 19 1952
Place of birth: Deventer, Netherlands
Playing position: Midfielder
Teams managed:
1998-2000 Fortuna Sittard
2000-2004 Feyenoord
2004-2006 Borussia Dortmund
2007-2008 Feyenoord
2008-2012 Netherlands
2013-2014 Hamburg
2015-2017 Saudi Arabia
2018 Australia
Major honours (manager):
2001/02 Uefa Cup, Feyenoord
2007/08 KNVB Cup, Feyenoord
World Cup runner-up, Netherlands
Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
