“Have you ever borrowed a book from thousands of miles away?”
In 1993, Americans were treated to a series of outstanding TV and print advertisements from US telecommunications giant AT&T. In a series of moodily lit vignettes, viewers were presented with questions like the one above, followed with a confident, emphatic: "You will".
From GPS navigation to Salik-like contactless road tolls to video calls at bedtime, the ads projected an inevitable future; hardly exponential, but fulfilling the excited promise of what Al Gore called the "information superhighway".
These ads were an early echo of a quality the modern world has come to overvalue: certainty.
Ironclad predictions about tomorrow have been the currency of Silicon Valley and all its cultural kin for decades. The statements, like those we have heard from futurati past and present, such as Steve Jobs and Elon Musk, are future-shaping – laying out a narrative or roadmap of the imagination for society to follow. These forecasts provide a north star to aim for. In the UAE in particular, such strategic visions have been central to national growth and the development of new industries, supporting businesses large and small.
Herein lies the challenge. These visions can help entrepreneurs and leaders alike steer strongly towards a preferred destination without distraction, while also generating confidence in their viability. Yet, they can also obscure the type of peripheral vision that is needed to see threats and new opportunities that arise over time. Defining the probable – that which we believe will happen in the worldly sense – too strongly can lessen a sensitivity to the possible – that which might happen, based on what we know today. An overfocus on the probable (or what futurists call the "official future" - that is, the tomorrow we commonly agree on and take as guaranteed) can often shift resources away from sensing the emergent signals of risk and opportunity that tell us when to recalculate our course.
For small businesses in particular, the definition of entrepreneurship built on such linear focus on mission has become part of the cultural DNA of start-up life. Whole sectors are seeded around the idea that X future will happen. Financiers and potential partners favour small businesses that give off an air of certainty. This dynamic has bred a kind of me-tooism in start-ups that gives us a world of business model clones – such as, “it’s Uber-for-X".
In a more stable, clear environment, an adherence to linearity may work for a while, but in an uncertain landscape where many accepted factors have been swept aside, and new forces emerge at whiplash speed, a different approach is needed: one where uncertainty is seen not as negative, but as possibility, or opportunity space.
Rather than punishing the lack of hard data about the future, or dismissing fuzzy insights as dubious and only clinging to what is quantifiable or deemed “accurate", the need has never been greater for entrepreneurs (in both small businesses and major enterprises) to explore the counterfactual, dive into white space, and question the historically accepted “future". This is more easily said than done, however. Making this kind of shift requires three important ingredients: a different risk culture, broadly accepted models of exploration, and better “sensing” of emerging signals.
Culture is the place to start, not end. Working comfortably with uncertainty is particularly tough in environments that reward provable metrics, and rely only on key performance indicators, or KPIs. These environments seek to reduce risk to a footnote or line-item in a ledger, and reward accordingly. I have been approached many times by professionals in workshops who understand and embrace new ways of exploring future opportunities, but fear that their managers, or their managers’ managers, will reject these practices as inconclusive or not fully evidenced-based, and therefore wasteful or wrong. For meaningful experimentation to take place, people need to sense they have the breathing space to do so, whether from organisational management, funding bodies, or partners. The expectations are set from the top.
Having common language for exploration is vital when working in less well-defined territory. Even if an emerging signal of opportunity or risk cannot be measured or priced yet, being able to communicate whether something is a new business model, or a rapidly shifting consumer behaviour, or a new piece of technology, is important. Similarly, establishing definitions for concepts that are easy to throw around, but hard to pin down, like “trend” or “scenario", can build confidence in more open discovery.
Finally, having a good radar is critical to small enterprises looking for new spaces to grow. This does not just mean having a nose for business opportunities, but a capacity to sense change in the wind, whether that is an emergent but vague risk (such as, say, a flu-like illness in a large city half a world away), or a subtle change in the competitive landscape that might be a large window of opportunity soon. Even as an organisation is “laser-focused” on the strategic goal, it still must be able to see when the terrain is shifting, even if that change seems small.
Today, everyone has to squeeze more out of less, and do so in a turbulent environment. This means using uncertainty as a creative material, looking into the hidden or obscured areas of possibility, and building or re-visiting the capacity to landscape ahead. Real future-shaping is taking the little-known, perhaps low-probability trends and exploring them to find hidden pathways, by seeding intellectual resources, encouraging our inherent future curiosity, and cultivating a more risk-friendly culture.
Scott Smith is managing partner of Changeist, a future foresight consultancy, and, with Madeline Ashby, author of the upcoming book How to Future: Leading and Sense-making in an Age of Hyperchange
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Company%20profile
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About Karol Nawrocki
• Supports military aid for Ukraine, unlike other eurosceptic leaders, but he will oppose its membership in western alliances.
• A nationalist, his campaign slogan was Poland First. "Let's help others, but let's take care of our own citizens first," he said on social media in April.
• Cultivates tough-guy image, posting videos of himself at shooting ranges and in boxing rings.
• Met Donald Trump at the White House and received his backing.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Ready Player One
Dir: Steven Spielberg
Starring: Tye Sheridan, Olivia Cooke, Ben Mendelsohn, Mark Rylance
Dunki
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FIXTURES
All games 6pm UAE on Sunday:
Arsenal v Watford
Burnley v Brighton
Chelsea v Wolves
Crystal Palace v Tottenham
Everton v Bournemouth
Leicester v Man United
Man City v Norwich
Newcastle v Liverpool
Southampton v Sheffield United
West Ham v Aston Villa
Electric scooters: some rules to remember
- Riders must be 14-years-old or over
- Wear a protective helmet
- Park the electric scooter in designated parking lots (if any)
- Do not leave electric scooter in locations that obstruct traffic or pedestrians
- Solo riders only, no passengers allowed
- Do not drive outside designated lanes
Washmen Profile
Date Started: May 2015
Founders: Rami Shaar and Jad Halaoui
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Laundry
Employees: 170
Funding: about $8m
Funders: Addventure, B&Y Partners, Clara Ventures, Cedar Mundi Partners, Henkel Ventures
Company%C2%A0profile
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Indoor cricket in a nutshell
Indoor Cricket World Cup – Sep 16-20, Insportz, Dubai
16 Indoor cricket matches are 16 overs per side
8 There are eight players per team
9 There have been nine Indoor Cricket World Cups for men. Australia have won every one.
5 Five runs are deducted from the score when a wickets falls
4 Batsmen bat in pairs, facing four overs per partnership
Scoring In indoor cricket, runs are scored by way of both physical and bonus runs. Physical runs are scored by both batsmen completing a run from one crease to the other. Bonus runs are scored when the ball hits a net in different zones, but only when at least one physical run is score.
Zones
A Front net, behind the striker and wicketkeeper: 0 runs
B Side nets, between the striker and halfway down the pitch: 1 run
C Side nets between halfway and the bowlers end: 2 runs
D Back net: 4 runs on the bounce, 6 runs on the full
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
THREE
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Last-16
France 4
Griezmann (13' pen), Pavard (57'), Mbappe (64', 68')
Argentina 3
Di Maria (41'), Mercado (48'), Aguero (90 3')
The five pillars of Islam
Remaining fixtures
- August 29 – UAE v Saudi Arabia, Hazza bin Zayed Stadium, Al Ain
- September 5 – Iraq v UAE, Amman, Jordan (venue TBC)
PROVISIONAL FIXTURE LIST
Premier League
Wednesday, June 17 (Kick-offs uae times) Aston Villa v Sheffield United 9pm; Manchester City v Arsenal 11pm
Friday, June 19 Norwich v Southampton 9pm; Tottenham v Manchester United 11pm
Saturday, June 20 Watford v Leicester 3.30pm; Brighton v Arsenal 6pm; West Ham v Wolves 8.30pm; Bournemouth v Crystal Palace 10.45pm
Sunday, June 21 Newcastle v Sheffield United 2pm; Aston Villa v Chelsea 7.30pm; Everton v Liverpool 10pm
Monday, June 22 Manchester City v Burnley 11pm (Sky)
Tuesday, June 23 Southampton v Arsenal 9pm; Tottenham v West Ham 11.15pm
Wednesday, June 24 Manchester United v Sheffield United 9pm; Newcastle v Aston Villa 9pm; Norwich v Everton 9pm; Liverpool v Crystal Palace 11.15pm
Thursday, June 25 Burnley v Watford 9pm; Leicester v Brighton 9pm; Chelsea v Manchester City 11.15pm; Wolves v Bournemouth 11.15pm
Sunday June 28 Aston Villa vs Wolves 3pm; Watford vs Southampton 7.30pm
Monday June 29 Crystal Palace vs Burnley 11pm
Tuesday June 30 Brighton vs Manchester United 9pm; Sheffield United vs Tottenham 11.15pm
Wednesday July 1 Bournemouth vs Newcastle 9pm; Everton vs Leicester 9pm; West Ham vs Chelsea 11.15pm
Thursday July 2 Arsenal vs Norwich 9pm; Manchester City vs Liverpool 11.15pm
Biography
Favourite Meal: Chicken Caesar salad
Hobbies: Travelling, going to the gym
Inspiration: Father, who was a captain in the UAE army
Favourite read: Rich Dad Poor Dad by Robert Kiyosaki and Sharon Lechter
Favourite film: The Founder, about the establishment of McDonald's
Company%20Profile
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UAE central contracts
Full time contracts
Rohan Mustafa, Ahmed Raza, Mohammed Usman, Chirag Suri, Mohammed Boota, Sultan Ahmed, Zahoor Khan, Junaid Siddique, Waheed Ahmed, Zawar Farid
Part time contracts
Aryan Lakra, Ansh Tandon, Karthik Meiyappan, Rahul Bhatia, Alishan Sharafu, CP Rizwaan, Basil Hameed, Matiullah, Fahad Nawaz, Sanchit Sharma
England-South Africa Test series
1st Test England win by 211 runs at Lord's, London
2nd Test South Africa win by 340 runs at Trent Bridge, Nottingham
3rd Test July 27-31 at The Oval, London
4th Test August 4-8 at Old Trafford, Manchester
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
SPEC%20SHEET
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Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
A general guide to how active you are:
Less than 5,000 steps - sedentary
5,000 - 9,999 steps - lightly active
10,000 - 12,500 steps - active
12,500 - highly active
About Krews
Founder: Ahmed Al Qubaisi
Based: Abu Dhabi
Founded: January 2019
Number of employees: 10
Sector: Technology/Social media
Funding to date: Estimated $300,000 from Hub71 in-kind support
Best Academy: Ajax and Benfica
Best Agent: Jorge Mendes
Best Club : Liverpool
Best Coach: Jurgen Klopp (Liverpool)
Best Goalkeeper: Alisson Becker
Best Men’s Player: Cristiano Ronaldo
Best Partnership of the Year Award by SportBusiness: Manchester City and SAP
Best Referee: Stephanie Frappart
Best Revelation Player: Joao Felix (Atletico Madrid and Portugal)
Best Sporting Director: Andrea Berta (Atletico Madrid)
Best Women's Player: Lucy Bronze
Best Young Arab Player: Achraf Hakimi
Kooora – Best Arab Club: Al Hilal (Saudi Arabia)
Kooora – Best Arab Player: Abderrazak Hamdallah (Al-Nassr FC, Saudi Arabia)
Player Career Award: Miralem Pjanic and Ryan Giggs
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
BIRD%20BOX%20BARCELONA
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F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Results:
6.30pm: Mazrat Al Ruwayah (PA) | Group 2 | US$55,000 (Dirt) | 1,600 metres
Winner: AF Al Sajanjle, Tadhg O’Shea (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer)
7.05pm: Meydan Sprint (TB) | Group 2 | $250,000 (Turf) | 1,000m
Winner: Blue Point, William Buick, Charlie Appleby
7.40pm: Firebreak Stakes | Group 3 | $200,000 (D) | 1,600m
Winner: Muntazah, Jim Crowley, Doug Watson
8.15pm: Meydan Trophy Conditions (TB) | $100,000 (T) | 1,900m
Winner: Art Du Val, William Buick, Charlie Appleby
8.50pm: Balanchine Group 2 (TB) | $250,000 (T) | 1,800m
Winner: Poetic Charm, William Buick, Charlie Appleby
9.25pm: Handicap (TB) | $135,000 (D) | 1,200m
Winner: Lava Spin, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
10pm: Handicap (TB) | $175,000 (T) | 2,410m
Winner: Mountain Hunter, Christophe Soumillon, Saeed bin Suroor
How Alia's experiment will help humans get to Mars
Alia’s winning experiment examined how genes might change under the stresses caused by being in space, such as cosmic radiation and microgravity.
Her samples were placed in a machine on board the International Space Station. called a miniPCR thermal cycler, which can copy DNA multiple times.
After the samples were examined on return to Earth, scientists were able to successfully detect changes caused by being in space in the way DNA transmits instructions through proteins and other molecules in living organisms.
Although Alia’s samples were taken from nematode worms, the results have much bigger long term applications, especially for human space flight and long term missions, such as to Mars.
It also means that the first DNA experiments using human genomes can now be carried out on the ISS.
UAE%20medallists%20at%20Asian%20Games%202023
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Key products and UAE prices
iPhone XS
With a 5.8-inch screen, it will be an advance version of the iPhone X. It will be dual sim and comes with better battery life, a faster processor and better camera. A new gold colour will be available.
Price: Dh4,229
iPhone XS Max
It is expected to be a grander version of the iPhone X with a 6.5-inch screen; an inch bigger than the screen of the iPhone 8 Plus.
Price: Dh4,649
iPhone XR
A low-cost version of the iPhone X with a 6.1-inch screen, it is expected to attract mass attention. According to industry experts, it is likely to have aluminium edges instead of stainless steel.
Price: Dh3,179
Apple Watch Series 4
More comprehensive health device with edge-to-edge displays that are more than 30 per cent bigger than displays on current models.
Read more about the coronavirus
