Twenty-twenty was a year unlike any other in our lifetimes. The dramatic impacts that Covid-19 had on the global energy system – including oil prices in the US going negative for the first time – were a side note, however, compared to the larger stories of suffering and death, economic upheaval and the singular scientific achievement of developing multiple highly effective vaccines in under a year.
Nonetheless, it is quite possible that the energy system will emerge from the Covid-19 crisis indelibly altered – changes that could be seen by future generations as some of the most consequential of the pandemic, if policymakers act on the opportunities at hand.
In late 2020, the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Centre surveyed a group of senior energy leaders from around the world to better understand how Covid-19 was changing the energy system. The results were telling, and they give hope that the world might yet address climate change. Sixty-one per cent of respondents believe that the pandemic will accelerate the energy transition, while only 20 per cent thought it would impede it. However, the respondents also set a task for global leaders: to make good on the opportunity of green recovery. Survey respondents think that political will and policy are the biggest impediments to reaching net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The consensus is that the most uncertain pathways and hardest choices are still to come.
Many global leaders see a chance to address climate change through "green stimulus" plans
Two figures from the survey demonstrate the difficulty ahead. First, we asked when or if global oil demand will peak, and 43 per cent of those surveyed responded that peak oil demand has already occurred or that it will occur within the next five years; 46 per cent forecast that it will occur late this decade or sometime in the next one.
While we do not have survey data from last year to compare, we believe these responses are markedly different than they would have before the pandemic, and that the average predicted timeline for a peak in oil demand was far sooner in 2020 than it would have been in 2019. Numerous articles were published in 2020 – like one from Bloomberg called "Peak oil is suddenly upon us" – that both reflected and impacted the zeitgeist.
Second, we asked respondents the likelihood of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. Only 30 per cent think it is somewhat likely, and just six per cent consider it very likely or certain.
That 89 per cent of respondents think oil demand will peak by 2040 – a true accomplishment, given that global oil demand grew by about 88 per cent between 1971 and 2019 – and yet only 36 per cent think we are likely or somewhat likely to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, illustrates the scope of the challenge.
From a technical perspective, this is obvious: oil is only one source of emissions, and reductions must be realised across many sectors. The survey data suggests that, while energy leaders are optimistic about stopping the growth of and perhaps reversing emissions from the production and consumption of oil, they are less optimistic about other emissions. In this vein, only 11 per cent believe that consensus will be reached on carbon-trading rules at the United Nations Climate Change Conference this year, despite 94 per cent stating that doing so is important to prevent a rise in average temperature of over 2°C. Perhaps most telling, 19 per cent of government respondents say such consensus will never be reached.
This is why it is up to policymakers to make good on the opportunities that have emerged from the tragedy of Covid-19. Spurred by the need to rebuild their economies, many global leaders see a chance to address climate change through “green stimulus” plans and net-zero pledges. With the pandemic raging and unemployment at near-record highs, one easily could have imagined that climate change would have yet again been put on the backburner, a long-term problem that could be addressed only after the crisis at hand was resolved. But following a year of record wildfires, hurricanes and extreme heat, many leaders see an opportunity to address both the economic and climate crises together.
It is hard to imagine a stronger global alignment of political will to act on climate change – and, crucially, to spend on climate action – than we have right now. 2021 will be the year we see if leaders start to make good on their promises and if the global community can meaningfully address climate change or not.
The Atlantic Council Global Energy Forum, taking place this week, will explore these issues in depth with leaders from around the world. We hope that following through on the commitments they made in 2020 will be the energy agenda for 2021.
This column is adapted from the forthcoming Atlantic Council Global Energy Centre publication “The Global Energy Agenda”
Randolph Bell is the Global Energy Centre Director and Richard Morningstar Chair for Global Energy Security at the Atlantic Council
Score
Third Test, Day 2
New Zealand 274
Pakistan 139-3 (61 ov)
Pakistan trail by 135 runs with 7 wickets remaining in the innings
DIVINE%20INTERVENTOIN
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WOMAN AND CHILD
Director: Saeed Roustaee
Starring: Parinaz Izadyar, Payman Maadi
Rating: 4/5
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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United States
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China
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UAE
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Japan
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5
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Norway
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Canada
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Singapore
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Australia
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Saudi Arabia
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South Korea
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MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid
When: April 25, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Allianz Arena, Munich
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 1, Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
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The 12 Syrian entities delisted by UK
Ministry of Interior
Ministry of Defence
General Intelligence Directorate
Air Force Intelligence Agency
Political Security Directorate
Syrian National Security Bureau
Military Intelligence Directorate
Army Supply Bureau
General Organisation of Radio and TV
Al Watan newspaper
Cham Press TV
Sama TV
The%20specs
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Monster Hunter: World
Capcom
PlayStation 4, Xbox One
The specs
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Transmission: ten-speed
Power: 420bhp
Torque: 624Nm
Price: Dh325,125
On sale: Now
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECreator%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ramez%20Galal%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ramez%20Galal%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStreaming%20on%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMBC%20Shahid%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
ICC T20 Team of 2021
Jos Buttler, Mohammad Rizwan, Babar Azam, Aiden Markram, Mitchell Marsh, David Miller, Tabraiz Shamsi, Josh Hazlewood, Wanindu Hasaranga, Mustafizur Rahman, Shaheen Afridi
Wednesday's results
Finland 3-0 Armenia
Faroes Islands 1-0 Malta
Sweden 1-1 Spain
Gibraltar 2-3 Georgia
Romania 1-1 Norway
Greece 2-1 Bosnia and Herzegovina
Liechtenstein 0-5 Italy
Switzerland 2-0 Rep of Ireland
Israel 3-1 Latvia
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
'Nightmare Alley'
Director:Guillermo del Toro
Stars:Bradley Cooper, Cate Blanchett, Rooney Mara
Rating: 3/5
THE DRAFT
The final phase of player recruitment for the T10 League has taken place, with UAE and Indian players being drafted to each of the eight teams.
Bengal Tigers
UAE players: Chirag Suri, Mohammed Usman
Indian: Zaheer Khan
Karachians
UAE players: Ahmed Raza, Ghulam Shabber
Indian: Pravin Tambe
Kerala Kings
UAE players: Mohammed Naveed, Abdul Shakoor
Indian: RS Sodhi
Maratha Arabians
UAE players: Zahoor Khan, Amir Hayat
Indian: S Badrinath
Northern Warriors
UAE players: Imran Haider, Rahul Bhatia
Indian: Amitoze Singh
Pakhtoons
UAE players: Hafiz Kaleem, Sheer Walli
Indian: RP Singh
Punjabi Legends
UAE players: Shaiman Anwar, Sandy Singh
Indian: Praveen Kumar
Rajputs
UAE players: Rohan Mustafa, Ashfaq Ahmed
Indian: Munaf Patel
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)
UJDA CHAMAN
Produced: Panorama Studios International
Directed: Abhishek Pathak
Cast: Sunny Singh, Maanvi Gagroo, Grusha Kapoor, Saurabh Shukla
Rating: 3.5 /5 stars
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'The Coddling of the American Mind: How Good Intentions and Bad Ideas are Setting up a Generation for Failure'
Greg Lukianoff and Jonathan Haidt, Penguin Randomhouse
The bio:
Favourite holiday destination: I really enjoyed Sri Lanka and Vietnam but my dream destination is the Maldives.
Favourite food: My mum’s Chinese cooking.
Favourite film: Robocop, followed by The Terminator.
Hobbies: Off-roading, scuba diving, playing squash and going to the gym.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – FINAL RECKONING
Director: Christopher McQuarrie
Starring: Tom Cruise, Hayley Atwell, Simon Pegg
Rating: 4/5
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
