Twenty-twenty was a year unlike any other in our lifetimes. The dramatic impacts that Covid-19 had on the global energy system – including oil prices in the US going negative for the first time – were a side note, however, compared to the larger stories of suffering and death, economic upheaval and the singular scientific achievement of developing multiple highly effective vaccines in under a year.
Nonetheless, it is quite possible that the energy system will emerge from the Covid-19 crisis indelibly altered – changes that could be seen by future generations as some of the most consequential of the pandemic, if policymakers act on the opportunities at hand.
In late 2020, the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Centre surveyed a group of senior energy leaders from around the world to better understand how Covid-19 was changing the energy system. The results were telling, and they give hope that the world might yet address climate change. Sixty-one per cent of respondents believe that the pandemic will accelerate the energy transition, while only 20 per cent thought it would impede it. However, the respondents also set a task for global leaders: to make good on the opportunity of green recovery. Survey respondents think that political will and policy are the biggest impediments to reaching net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The consensus is that the most uncertain pathways and hardest choices are still to come.
Many global leaders see a chance to address climate change through "green stimulus" plans
Two figures from the survey demonstrate the difficulty ahead. First, we asked when or if global oil demand will peak, and 43 per cent of those surveyed responded that peak oil demand has already occurred or that it will occur within the next five years; 46 per cent forecast that it will occur late this decade or sometime in the next one.
While we do not have survey data from last year to compare, we believe these responses are markedly different than they would have before the pandemic, and that the average predicted timeline for a peak in oil demand was far sooner in 2020 than it would have been in 2019. Numerous articles were published in 2020 – like one from Bloomberg called "Peak oil is suddenly upon us" – that both reflected and impacted the zeitgeist.
Second, we asked respondents the likelihood of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. Only 30 per cent think it is somewhat likely, and just six per cent consider it very likely or certain.
That 89 per cent of respondents think oil demand will peak by 2040 – a true accomplishment, given that global oil demand grew by about 88 per cent between 1971 and 2019 – and yet only 36 per cent think we are likely or somewhat likely to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, illustrates the scope of the challenge.
From a technical perspective, this is obvious: oil is only one source of emissions, and reductions must be realised across many sectors. The survey data suggests that, while energy leaders are optimistic about stopping the growth of and perhaps reversing emissions from the production and consumption of oil, they are less optimistic about other emissions. In this vein, only 11 per cent believe that consensus will be reached on carbon-trading rules at the United Nations Climate Change Conference this year, despite 94 per cent stating that doing so is important to prevent a rise in average temperature of over 2°C. Perhaps most telling, 19 per cent of government respondents say such consensus will never be reached.
This is why it is up to policymakers to make good on the opportunities that have emerged from the tragedy of Covid-19. Spurred by the need to rebuild their economies, many global leaders see a chance to address climate change through “green stimulus” plans and net-zero pledges. With the pandemic raging and unemployment at near-record highs, one easily could have imagined that climate change would have yet again been put on the backburner, a long-term problem that could be addressed only after the crisis at hand was resolved. But following a year of record wildfires, hurricanes and extreme heat, many leaders see an opportunity to address both the economic and climate crises together.
It is hard to imagine a stronger global alignment of political will to act on climate change – and, crucially, to spend on climate action – than we have right now. 2021 will be the year we see if leaders start to make good on their promises and if the global community can meaningfully address climate change or not.
The Atlantic Council Global Energy Forum, taking place this week, will explore these issues in depth with leaders from around the world. We hope that following through on the commitments they made in 2020 will be the energy agenda for 2021.
This column is adapted from the forthcoming Atlantic Council Global Energy Centre publication “The Global Energy Agenda”
Randolph Bell is the Global Energy Centre Director and Richard Morningstar Chair for Global Energy Security at the Atlantic Council
The biog
Favourite hobby: taking his rescue dog, Sally, for long walks.
Favourite book: anything by Stephen King, although he said the films rarely match the quality of the books
Favourite film: The Shawshank Redemption stands out as his favourite movie, a classic King novella
Favourite music: “I have a wide and varied music taste, so it would be unfair to pick a single song from blues to rock as a favourite"
What can you do?
Document everything immediately; including dates, times, locations and witnesses
Seek professional advice from a legal expert
You can report an incident to HR or an immediate supervisor
You can use the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation’s dedicated hotline
In criminal cases, you can contact the police for additional support
Oppenheimer
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EChristopher%20Nolan%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ECillian%20Murphy%2C%20Emily%20Blunt%2C%20Robert%20Downey%20Jr%2C%20Florence%20Pugh%2C%20Matt%20Damon%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E5%2F5%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
THE SPECS
Range Rover Sport Autobiography Dynamic
Engine: 5.0-litre supercharged V8
Transmission: six-speed manual
Power: 518bhp
Torque: 625Nm
Speed: 0-100kmh 5.3 seconds
Price: Dh633,435
On sale: now
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Xpanceo
Started: 2018
Founders: Roman Axelrod, Valentyn Volkov
Based: Dubai, UAE
Industry: Smart contact lenses, augmented/virtual reality
Funding: $40 million
Investor: Opportunity Venture (Asia)
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Chelsea 2 Burnley 3
Chelsea Morata (69'), Luiz (88')
Burnley Vokes (24', 43'), Ward (39')
Red cards Cahill, Fabregas (Chelsea)
ANDROID%20VERSION%20NAMES%2C%20IN%20ORDER
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The low down on MPS
What is myofascial pain syndrome?
Myofascial pain syndrome refers to pain and inflammation in the body’s soft tissue. MPS is a chronic condition that affects the fascia (connective tissue that covers the muscles, which develops knots, also known as trigger points).
What are trigger points?
Trigger points are irritable knots in the soft tissue that covers muscle tissue. Through injury or overuse, muscle fibres contract as a reactive and protective measure, creating tension in the form of hard and, palpable nodules. Overuse and sustained posture are the main culprits in developing trigger points.
What is myofascial or trigger-point release?
Releasing these nodules requires a hands-on technique that involves applying gentle sustained pressure to release muscular shortness and tightness. This eliminates restrictions in connective tissue in orderto restore motion and alleviate pain. Therapy balls have proven effective at causing enough commotion in the tissue, prompting the release of these hard knots.
Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
HOW TO WATCH
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Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
MATCH STATS
Wolves 0
Aston Villa 1 (El Ghazi 90 4' pen)
Red cards: Joao Moutinho (Wolves); Douglas Luiz (Aston Villa)
Man of the match: Emi Martinez (Aston Villa)
A little about CVRL
Founded in 1985 by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, Vice President and Ruler of Dubai, the Central Veterinary Research Laboratory (CVRL) is a government diagnostic centre that provides testing and research facilities to the UAE and neighbouring countries.
One of its main goals is to provide permanent treatment solutions for veterinary related diseases.
The taxidermy centre was established 12 years ago and is headed by Dr Ulrich Wernery.
The Limehouse Golem
Director: Juan Carlos Medina
Cast: Olivia Cooke, Bill Nighy, Douglas Booth
Three stars
if you go
The flights
Fly to Rome with Etihad (www.etihad.ae) or Emirates (www.emirates.com) from Dh2,480 return including taxes. The flight takes six hours. Fly from Rome to Trapani with Ryanair (www.ryanair.com) from Dh420 return including taxes. The flight takes one hour 10 minutes.
The hotels
The author recommends the following hotels for this itinerary. In Trapani, Ai Lumi (www.ailumi.it); in Marsala, Viacolvento (www.viacolventomarsala.it); and in Marsala Del Vallo, the Meliaresort Dimore Storiche (www.meliaresort.it).
Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
The biog
Favourite food: Tabbouleh, greek salad and sushi
Favourite TV show: That 70s Show
Favourite animal: Ferrets, they are smart, sensitive, playful and loving
Favourite holiday destination: Seychelles, my resolution for 2020 is to visit as many spiritual retreats and animal shelters across the world as I can
Name of first pet: Eddy, a Persian cat that showed up at our home
Favourite dog breed: I love them all - if I had to pick Yorkshire terrier for small dogs and St Bernard's for big
