Lebanon has sometimes been described as a "volcano of instability". Given the impossibility of forecasting its future, which is for the most part shaped by foreign actors as much as local ones, it is perhaps a fitting label.
Despite being just 10,452 square kilometres in size with a population of under seven million people, this tiny Arab country is an important neighbour for both Syria and Israel. For, it serves as some sort of an unofficial military base for the Iranian regime and its proxies. Major powers, therefore, are forced to take it seriously from a strategic standpoint – despite repeatedly clashing with its intransigent, self-preservative and deeply sectarian political class.
US President-elect Joe Biden is all set to enter the White House on January 20. Expecting a shift in policy vis-a-vis the Middle East, particularly regarding America’s adversarial relationship with Iran, leaders of key countries are focused on improving their own fortunes in the region.
Read More from Raghida Dergham
The most notable example is Russia.
Moscow, which views Syria as its gateway to the Middle East, is attempting to close the book on the nine-year-old civil war in the country. Over the past decade, it has offered military support to the Assad regime in Damascus against rebel forces backed by Turkey and other countries. But to bring lasting peace to Syria, Moscow believes it must help bring stability and security in its neighbourhood – which includes Lebanon.
Indeed, establishing political stability in an otherwise politically unstable country is in Moscow’s interest. The reason for this is simple: so long as Lebanon’s political class is weak and divided, the country remains an arena for foreign meddling, which undermines its stability and, in turn, that of the countries around it.
For genuine change, however, Lebanon’s institutions need to be free of the influence of one such foreign meddler: Iran.
There is an understanding in Moscow that Tehran wants Lebanon to remain a wild card in its regional game, and therefore would be uninterested in encouraging an enactment of reforms in that country. Moscow is also all too aware of the influence France, once Lebanon's colonial master, wields there. For months, Paris has been attempting to resolve the political impasse in Lebanon and, in the process, bring it closer to the West. But this has proved an arduous task.
Like France, Russia also seeks to help Lebanon find its feet and become a genuine sovereign player.
A report prepared by a task force in Moscow has proposed a number of solutions, which include imposing boundaries on Hezbollah to cease direct intervention and influence; preventing any threat from originating in Lebanon to other countries; securing collective economic aid to rebuild the country; including Lebanon in various regional, political and diplomatic processes; concluding domestic political agreements that strengthen stability – even if those agreements are secret in nature; and pushing leaders to assume personal responsibility for national development.
All this requires removing the causes of instability in Lebanon, according to the report, which stressed the need to transform Lebanon “from an arena of conflict to a state with a future at any price”.
Russia is, meanwhile, working towards bringing Syria, Iran and Israel to the table – as I have previously written in these pages. The hope is that Syria and Israel will reach a deal regarding how much Iranian military presence should be allowed in that part of the region, which the Assad regime relies on for its security – and which Israel sees as a threat to its national security.
In the larger scheme of things, Russia sees Israel as a potential partner in its plan to bring about a radical change in the region – but it will not do so by abandoning Iran, which is its ally in Syria. To gain Israel’s support towards supporting its interests in the region, Moscow will need to find a way to convince Iran to draw down its military presence in Syria.
The upcoming elections in both Iran and Israel will make it harder for Moscow to bring both countries to the table. However, it is reportedly undeterred by this challenge. It is already engaging with Israel on this matter and intends to hold talks with Iran early next year.
Russia has leverage over Iran, given the business they do with one another. Moreover, both countries rely on one another in managing the Syrian conflict. Russia’s plan is to prevent total Iranian domination over the Syrian regime but at the same time ensure it has some influence in the country – and it intends to strike a bargain with the regime in Tehran in this regard.
It must do so in the context of Lebanon as well.
If Moscow has its way, one could expect serious reforms in the Middle East over the next few years. Russia sees itself, the US, France and Israel as the powers that will shape the region’s geopolitical future – without, of course, excluding other regional stakeholders such as Iran and key Arab countries.
The question is, who will bear responsibility for the process of achieving long-term stability in the Middle East? The political and economic costs will be high, and Russia can only bear limited responsibility in such a process.
It is also pertinent to ask whether Lebanon’s politicians, who seem largely unconcerned by their country’s lack of stability and sovereignty, can be convinced to act in the larger interests of their people.
Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute and a columnist for The National
QUARTER-FINAL
Wales 20-19 France
Wales: T: Wainwright, Moriarty. Cons: Biggar (2) Pens: Biggar 2
France: T: Vahaamahina, Ollivon, Vakatawa Cons: Ntamack (2)
Other key dates
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Finals draw: December 2
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Finals (including semi-finals and third-placed game): June 5–9, 2019
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Euro 2020 play-off draw: November 22, 2019
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Euro 2020 play-offs: March 26–31, 2020
Everybody%20Loves%20Touda
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Nabil%20Ayouch%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Nisrin%20Erradi%2C%20Joud%20Chamihy%2C%20Jalila%20Talemsi%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Blackpink World Tour [Born Pink] In Cinemas
Starring: Rose, Jisoo, Jennie, Lisa
Directors: Min Geun, Oh Yoon-Dong
Rating: 3/5
McLaren GT specs
Engine: 4-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: seven-speed
Power: 620bhp
Torque: 630Nm
Price: Dh875,000
On sale: now
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
LIGUE 1 FIXTURES
All times UAE ( 4 GMT)
Friday
Nice v Angers (9pm)
Lille v Monaco (10.45pm)
Saturday
Montpellier v Paris Saint-Germain (7pm)
Bordeaux v Guingamp (10pm)
Caen v Amiens (10pm)
Lyon v Dijon (10pm)
Metz v Troyes (10pm)
Sunday
Saint-Etienne v Rennes (5pm)
Strasbourg v Nantes (7pm)
Marseille v Toulouse (11pm)
The figures behind the event
1) More than 300 in-house cleaning crew
2) 165 staff assigned to sanitise public areas throughout the show
3) 1,000 social distancing stickers
4) 809 hand sanitiser dispensers placed throughout the venue
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Where can I submit a sample?
Volunteers can now submit DNA samples at a number of centres across Abu Dhabi. The programme is open to all ages.
Collection centres in Abu Dhabi include:
- Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre (ADNEC)
- Biogenix Labs in Masdar City
- Al Towayya in Al Ain
- NMC Royal Hospital in Khalifa City
- Bareen International Hospital
- NMC Specialty Hospital, Al Ain
- NMC Royal Medical Centre - Abu Dhabi
- NMC Royal Women’s Hospital.
Pakistan Super League
Previous winners
2016 Islamabad United
2017 Peshawar Zalmi
2018 Islamabad United
2019 Quetta Gladiators
Most runs Kamran Akmal – 1,286
Most wickets Wahab Riaz –65
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Leap of Faith
Michael J Mazarr
Public Affairs
Dh67
THE SIXTH SENSE
Starring: Bruce Willis, Toni Collette, Hayley Joel Osment
Director: M. Night Shyamalan
Rating: 5/5
The fake news generation
288,000 – the number of posts reported as hate speech that were deleted by Facebook globally each month in May and June this year
11% – the number of Americans who said they trusted the news they read on Snapchat as of June 2017, according to Statista. Over a quarter stated that they ‘rarely trusted’ the news they read on social media in general
31% - the number of young people in the US aged between 10 and 18 who said they had shared a news story online in the last six months that they later found out was wrong or inaccurate
63% - percentage of Arab nationals who said they get their news from social media every single day.
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
If you go
Flying
Despite the extreme distance, flying to Fairbanks is relatively simple, requiring just one transfer in Seattle, which can be reached directly from Dubai with Emirates for Dh6,800 return.
Touring
Gondwana Ecotours’ seven-day Polar Bear Adventure starts in Fairbanks in central Alaska before visiting Kaktovik and Utqiarvik on the North Slope. Polar bear viewing is highly likely in Kaktovik, with up to five two-hour boat tours included. Prices start from Dh11,500 per person, with all local flights, meals and accommodation included; gondwanaecotours.com
EA Sports FC 25
Developer: EA Vancouver, EA Romania
Publisher: EA Sports
Consoles: Nintendo Switch, PlayStation 4&5, Xbox One and Xbox Series X/S
Rating: 3.5/5
Ziina users can donate to relief efforts in Beirut
Ziina users will be able to use the app to help relief efforts in Beirut, which has been left reeling after an August blast caused an estimated $15 billion in damage and left thousands homeless. Ziina has partnered with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees to raise money for the Lebanese capital, co-founder Faisal Toukan says. “As of October 1, the UNHCR has the first certified badge on Ziina and is automatically part of user's top friends' list during this campaign. Users can now donate any amount to the Beirut relief with two clicks. The money raised will go towards rebuilding houses for the families that were impacted by the explosion.”
OPINIONS ON PALESTINE & ISRAEL
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
If you go
The flights
There are direct flights from Dubai to Sofia with FlyDubai (www.flydubai.com) and Wizz Air (www.wizzair.com), from Dh1,164 and Dh822 return including taxes, respectively.
The trip
Plovdiv is 150km from Sofia, with an hourly bus service taking around 2 hours and costing $16 (Dh58). The Rhodopes can be reached from Sofia in between 2-4hours.
The trip was organised by Bulguides (www.bulguides.com), which organises guided trips throughout Bulgaria. Guiding, accommodation, food and transfers from Plovdiv to the mountains and back costs around 170 USD for a four-day, three-night trip.
The specs
Engine: 3-litre twin-turbo V6
Power: 400hp
Torque: 475Nm
Transmission: 9-speed automatic
Price: From Dh215,900
On sale: Now
'I Want You Back'
Director:Jason Orley
Stars:Jenny Slate, Charlie Day
Rating:4/5
THE DETAILS
Director: Milan Jhaveri
Producer: Emmay Entertainment and T-Series
Cast: John Abraham, Manoj Bajpayee
Rating: 2/5
Indoor Cricket World Cup - Sept 16-20, Insportz, Dubai
Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
