It is one thing to hold an election; another to follow through on its results.
Since 2003, Iraq has had a complex political system introduced by the American-led occupation and endorsed by the Iraqi constitution.
A fragmented federal multi-party list system has added to the political difficulties facing a country emerging from years of dictatorship and war. However, Iraq’s political system is not unique. A parliamentary system based on an honorary president with large coalitions needed to form a government can often be problematic. Cases in point: Italy and Lebanon.
The intervening time between elections and government formation is challenging because of the uncertainty that it carries – even more so for a country with the challenges facing Iraq.
Nearly a month after the elections, political discussions between parties over government formation have stalled as the results themselves have been called into question.
Iraqi cleric Moqtada Al Sadr’s coalition emerged as the winner, with the largest number of seats in parliament giving him the advantage of naming the incoming prime minister and forming the government.
While he is likely to maintain that lead, his position could be challenged. There are more than 31 parties in Iraq and a disparity of only a few seats between the top five parliamentary lists.
A recount could change the fortunes of one or more parties. Today, the results and how they came about are now in question.
Various politicians, including Prime Minister Haider Al Abadi, claim that the results need to be investigated due to allegations of fraud. The electoral commission denies this. Little evidence has been produced to that effect, except for some instances in Suleimaniyah and Kirkuk.
The initial results gave rise to hopes of a non-sectarian, nationalist government emerging. Those hopes might yet be dashed.
The objections raised about the electoral process and results have become so numerous, most Iraqis are struggling to follow their details.
Last week, parliament passed a law to mandate a manual recount of the votes, along with the replacement of members of the Independent Higher Electoral Commission with judges.
The commissioners plan to appeal against the law, stating that the very independence of the commission is being undermined. Last Wednesday’s parliamentary vote saw members of parliament who had lost out in the most recent elections attack the legitimacy of the process that cost them their seats.
Questions abound as to whether those MPs would have contested the results so strongly had they won.
Political pressure on the commission is compounded with the assumed guilt of its members after a blanket travel ban was imposed on them.
Ironically, the May 12 poll was meant to be the election with the least incidence of fraud as an electronic counting system was introduced.
The new technology was feted as safeguarding all ballot boxes. But in reality, instances of intimidation outside a few polling stations, mixed with delaying tactics and significant claims of fraud, have cast partial doubt on the results.
There was further potential for chaos after a fire broke out in a Baghdad ballot box storage site on Sunday.
Elections where one aspect is questioned end up facing scrutiny across the board.
The involvement of the judiciary is a significant test for Baghdad. Iraq has a complex legal system that includes the Higher Judicial Council, the Supreme Court, the Court of Cassation, the Public Prosecution Department and the Judiciary Oversight Commission – to name just a few.
Iraq’s Supreme Judicial Council, the highest judicial authority in the country, now has the daunting task of naming judges to take over the work of the commission.
While the executive and legislative branches of government are currently in flux, the judiciary must be safeguarded from political manipulation.
It is unclear how long the manual recount will take but the expectation is that government formation will now be delayed by at least several weeks.
A low voter turnout of 45 per cent in the elections has already led to questions about how reflective it was of the Iraqi people’s will.
With doubt about the validity of some of the ballots cast, Iraq’s politics are heading for more troubled times.
Meanwhile, the country is not yet out of the woods when it comes to ISIS. Militants are adopting a “wait and see” approach while political rivalries play out. They can seize any opportunity to undercut the political process they have declared war on.
Likewise, infighting between different political factions with militias could lead to an uptick in violence. Areas where the results are in question are most affected, as witnessed with attacks in Kirkuk and Diyala over the past week.
However, it is worth remembering that the areas which ISIS controlled had a high voter turnout. West Mosul, which suffered most under ISIS, had the highest percentage of voters.
That endorsement is not one to be disregarded or taken lightly. To challenge extremists, the political system must be seen as a legitimate and reliable system of rule.
All parties in Iraq – and those supporting it, like the United Nations – need to agree how to deliver on the results of the elections and restore confidence in them.
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Read more:
Fire breaks out in Baghdad's largest ballot box storage site
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
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Essentials
The flights
Emirates, Etihad and Malaysia Airlines all fly direct from the UAE to Kuala Lumpur and on to Penang from about Dh2,300 return, including taxes.
Where to stay
In Kuala Lumpur, Element is a recently opened, futuristic hotel high up in a Norman Foster-designed skyscraper. Rooms cost from Dh400 per night, including taxes. Hotel Stripes, also in KL, is a great value design hotel, with an infinity rooftop pool. Rooms cost from Dh310, including taxes.
In Penang, Ren i Tang is a boutique b&b in what was once an ancient Chinese Medicine Hall in the centre of Little India. Rooms cost from Dh220, including taxes.
23 Love Lane in Penang is a luxury boutique heritage hotel in a converted mansion, with private tropical gardens. Rooms cost from Dh400, including taxes.
In Langkawi, Temple Tree is a unique architectural villa hotel consisting of antique houses from all across Malaysia. Rooms cost from Dh350, including taxes.
Overall head-to-head
Federer 6-1 Cilic
Head-to-head at Wimbledon
Federer 1-0 Cilic
Grand Slams titles
Federer 18-1 Cilic
Best Wimbledon performance
Federer: Winner (2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2012)
Cilic: Final (2017*)
Common OCD symptoms and how they manifest
Checking: the obsession or thoughts focus on some harm coming from things not being as they should, which usually centre around the theme of safety. For example, the obsession is “the building will burn down”, therefore the compulsion is checking that the oven is switched off.
Contamination: the obsession is focused on the presence of germs, dirt or harmful bacteria and how this will impact the person and/or their loved ones. For example, the obsession is “the floor is dirty; me and my family will get sick and die”, the compulsion is repetitive cleaning.
Orderliness: the obsession is a fear of sitting with uncomfortable feelings, or to prevent harm coming to oneself or others. Objectively there appears to be no logical link between the obsession and compulsion. For example,” I won’t feel right if the jars aren’t lined up” or “harm will come to my family if I don’t line up all the jars”, so the compulsion is therefore lining up the jars.
Intrusive thoughts: the intrusive thought is usually highly distressing and repetitive. Common examples may include thoughts of perpetrating violence towards others, harming others, or questions over one’s character or deeds, usually in conflict with the person’s true values. An example would be: “I think I might hurt my family”, which in turn leads to the compulsion of avoiding social gatherings.
Hoarding: the intrusive thought is the overvaluing of objects or possessions, while the compulsion is stashing or hoarding these items and refusing to let them go. For example, “this newspaper may come in useful one day”, therefore, the compulsion is hoarding newspapers instead of discarding them the next day.
Source: Dr Robert Chandler, clinical psychologist at Lighthouse Arabia
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
Wallabies
Updated team: 15-Israel Folau, 14-Dane Haylett-Petty, 13-Reece Hodge, 12-Matt Toomua, 11-Marika Koroibete, 10-Kurtley Beale, 9-Will Genia, 8-Pete Samu, 7-Michael Hooper (captain), 6-Lukhan Tui, 5-Adam Coleman, 4-Rory Arnold, 3-Allan Alaalatoa, 2-Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1-Scott Sio.
Replacements: 16-Folau Faingaa, 17-Tom Robertson, 18-Taniela Tupou, 19-Izack Rodda, 20-Ned Hanigan, 21-Joe Powell, 22-Bernard Foley, 23-Jack Maddocks.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Tonight's Chat on The National
Tonight's Chat is a series of online conversations on The National. The series features a diverse range of celebrities, politicians and business leaders from around the Arab world.
Tonight’s Chat host Ricardo Karam is a renowned author and broadcaster who has previously interviewed Bill Gates, Carlos Ghosn, Andre Agassi and the late Zaha Hadid, among others.
Intellectually curious and thought-provoking, Tonight’s Chat moves the conversation forward.
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OIL PLEDGE
At the start of Russia's invasion, IEA member countries held 1.5 billion barrels in public reserves and about 575 million barrels under obligations with industry, according to the agency's website. The two collective actions of the IEA this year of 62.7 million barrels, which was agreed on March 1, and this week's 120 million barrels amount to 9 per cent of total emergency reserves, it added.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Match info
Liverpool 4
Salah (19'), Mane (45 2', 53'), Sturridge (87')
West Ham United 0
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
Price, base / as tested: Dh182,178
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Power: 350hp @ 7,400rpm
Torque: 374Nm @ 5,200rpm
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 10.5L / 100km
How to watch Ireland v Pakistan in UAE
When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11
What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time.
TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.
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