A new decade of the 20th century has just opened – one of uncertainty brought forth by the global pandemic and its consequences. But it is also one of hope and opportunities for civilisation's recovery, and a chance to create a world that respects the principles of sustained development. Certain areas will become centres of dynamic and positive change, and I am certain that Central Europe will be one of them.
Central Europe (sometimes called Central and Eastern Europe) is the area between the Baltic, Adriatic and Black Seas, or between Germany and Russia. It is a significant regional entity, and a community of shared fate in terms of geography, politics and economy, as well as in terms of ideas and cultures. But above all, we constitute a circle of common memory. We have had our share of shared historical experiences. We have suffered from totalitarianism, but we have also had glorious experiences over the centuries. The 15th-17th centuries, during the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, saw a flourishing of a voluntary political union in a substantial part of the territory – a precursor to the EU of today, which was home to many cultures and faiths and which respected the rule of law, parliamentarianism and democracy. We are carrying lessons from those experiences – both good and bad – into the future as a universal warning as well as inspiration to work towards a common good.
A description of Central Europe’s values is also important. The author Milan Kundera suggestively named Central Europe “a kidnapped West” – that is, a part of western civilisation that found itself under Soviet domination against its will – imperial, authoritarian and unable to manage rationally. It must be emphasised, though, that our commitment to values that have built European culture is not without reflection. We know the high price one must pay for defending them. We are aware that one must cultivate and reconcile freedom and responsibility, rights and duties, individualism and solidarity, the attitude of criticism, innovation and modernisation that describe our identity.
On the threshold of the fall of the Soviet Union in 1989, the historian Timothy Garton Ash wrote that the concept of Central Europe has roused the western world from thinking in Cold War terms by challenging common notions and priorities but also offering something new in return. This opinion is as valid today, as the participation of Central European countries in the EU and Nato forms a crucial part of the European and Atlantic order.
If I were to concisely summarise the modern face of Central Europe, including Poland as its largest country, I would say that it is a community of shared success and shared aspirations at the same time.
Central Europe constitutes a perfect example of how powerful and creative freedom is. Freedom and its siblings – economic freedom, entrepreneurship and self-government – open up space for fulfilment of bold ambitions. Development accompanies the progress of freedom. The three decades that have passed since the fall of communism are the story of economic and social advancement of a degree that hardly ever happened over such a short time in world history. Poland and the whole of Central Europe are a fascinating testimony to opportunities that come with freedom.
We can also serve as an inspiring example of how co-operation, joint initiatives and undertakings bring positive results. They have enabled Central Europe to cease being a peripheral area between the West and East, and instead became a structure connected by multiple ties, aware of its interests and influential in European affairs.
The author Milan Kundera suggestively named Central Europe "a kidnapped West"
There are three important planes of Central European co-operation, significant not just for the region but for the EU, Atlantic and beyond. The first of them is the Visegrad Group, a long-standing entity comprised of Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary. Initiated in 1991 as a platform for political dialogue and co-ordination of efforts to gain membership in Nato and the EU, the Visegrad Group proved useful even after it achieved these goals. Today, it is one of the most important agents in activating co-operation in Central Europe and improving the understanding of European affairs.
The second is the Bucharest Nine, a grouping of Nato’s eastern flank: namely, Poland, Romania, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Bulgaria. It was established in 2015 in Bucharest to secure a “robust, credible and sustainable Allied military presence” in the region. To a large degree, the B9 is a response to Russia’s policies, and to the violations of borders and territorial integrity of the neighbouring Ukraine, which threatens regional and Atlantic security. We are not going to watch it idly.
The third is the Three Seas Initiative, initiated by the President of Croatia, Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic, and me in 2015. The group comprises countries located between the Baltic, Adriatic and Black Seas. The goal is to make joint investments in infrastructure, transport, energy and new technologies that will boost development in our countries and contribute to the cohesion of the EU. When we look at the map of economic connections within the EU, we see a significant prevalence of horizontal flows along the west-east axis over vertical flows along the north-south axis. This includes flows of people, goods, services and capital, but also infrastructure networks such as expressways, railroads, pipelines, power and IT lines. The Three Seas Initiative aims to fill in the missing elements of the “scaffolding” to strengthen the integration of our region and the entire EU. The fact that, alongside the EU, investors from the US, China and other parts of the world are involved in the Three Seas Initiative ensures diversified benefits and mutual interdependence.
This is both today’s picture and the future vision of Central Europe as a community of shared activities, successes and aspirations. We have travelled a long and successful road – from being a region almost non-existent in the minds of many on the world stage (“in Poland, that is to say, Nowhere", as the French writer Alfred Jarry wrote in late 19th century) to becoming a region that is one of the most dynamic parts of the globe and aspires to being a centre of civilisation. Central Europe – doesn’t the name say it all? We are on a fascinating adventure, and all are invited.
A version of this column will simultaneously appear in the Polish magazine "Wszystko Co Najwazniejsze"
Andrzej Duda is the President of the Republic of Poland
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Financial considerations before buying a property
Buyers should try to pay as much in cash as possible for a property, limiting the mortgage value to as little as they can afford. This means they not only pay less in interest but their monthly costs are also reduced. Ideally, the monthly mortgage payment should not exceed 20 per cent of the purchaser’s total household income, says Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching.
“If it’s a rental property, plan for the property to have periods when it does not have a tenant. Ensure you have enough cash set aside to pay the mortgage and other costs during these periods, ideally at least six months,” she says.
Also, shop around for the best mortgage interest rate. Understand the terms and conditions, especially what happens after any introductory periods, Ms Glynn adds.
Using a good mortgage broker is worth the investment to obtain the best rate available for a buyer’s needs and circumstances. A good mortgage broker will help the buyer understand the terms and conditions of the mortgage and make the purchasing process efficient and easier.
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Will the pound fall to parity with the dollar?
The idea of pound parity now seems less far-fetched as the risk grows that Britain may split away from the European Union without a deal.
Rupert Harrison, a fund manager at BlackRock, sees the risk of it falling to trade level with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit. The view echoes Morgan Stanley’s recent forecast that the currency can plunge toward $1 (Dh3.67) on such an outcome. That isn’t the majority view yet – a Bloomberg survey this month estimated the pound will slide to $1.10 should the UK exit the bloc without an agreement.
New Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said that Britain will leave the EU on the October 31 deadline with or without an agreement, fuelling concern the nation is headed for a disorderly departure and fanning pessimism toward the pound. Sterling has fallen more than 7 per cent in the past three months, the worst performance among major developed-market currencies.
“The pound is at a much lower level now but I still think a no-deal exit would lead to significant volatility and we could be testing parity on a really bad outcome,” said Mr Harrison, who manages more than $10 billion in assets at BlackRock. “We will see this game of chicken continue through August and that’s likely negative for sterling,” he said about the deadlocked Brexit talks.
The pound fell 0.8 per cent to $1.2033 on Friday, its weakest closing level since the 1980s, after a report on the second quarter showed the UK economy shrank for the first time in six years. The data means it is likely the Bank of England will cut interest rates, according to Mizuho Bank.
The BOE said in November that the currency could fall even below $1 in an analysis on possible worst-case Brexit scenarios. Options-based calculations showed around a 6.4 per cent chance of pound-dollar parity in the next one year, markedly higher than 0.2 per cent in early March when prospects of a no-deal outcome were seemingly off the table.
Bloomberg
How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
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- Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
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- Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269
*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year
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