Joe Biden, then US Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman, visited China in 2001. As president, he will be dealing with a more assertive China. AFP
Joe Biden, then US Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman, visited China in 2001. As president, he will be dealing with a more assertive China. AFP
Joe Biden, then US Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman, visited China in 2001. As president, he will be dealing with a more assertive China. AFP
Joe Biden, then US Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman, visited China in 2001. As president, he will be dealing with a more assertive China. AFP

Comment

Biden’s 'Mission Impossible' in the Philippines

Amid the rise of China, the US will be dealing with a less friendly Manila and a trio of increasingly assertive middle powers

Richard Javad Heydarian
Richard Javad Heydarian

January 19, 2021

  • English
  • Arabic

"America is back," US President-elect Joe Biden declared not long after securing a hard-fought victory in one of the country's most contentious elections yet. "America's going to reassert its role in the world and be a coalition builder." The former vice president was essentially repudiating President Donald Trump's "America First" cocktail of isolationism, protectionism and unilateralism that many pundits have characterised as "America Alone".

True to his words, America's incoming president has swiftly assembled a putative cabinet filled with scions of liberal internationalism, including leading foreign policy minds and military officers during the Obama administration. But Mr Biden's plans to "reassert" American global leadership will face significant hurdles, not only at home but also abroad, especially in Asia – the new geopolitical centre of gravity.

Far from re-establishing the US as the world’s undisputed superpower, Mr Biden’s presidency is likely to crystalise the emergence of a truly "post-American world", as prickly allies, independent-minded “middle powers” and above all, a resurgent China collectively reshape the 21st-century global order.

One of the most dramatic expressions of this seismic shift in America’s place in the world is the outright defection of a century-old ally, the Philippines, under President Rodrigo Duterte.

Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte has often expressed support for China, even though his country has a long-standing treaty with the US. Reuters
Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte has often expressed support for China, even though his country has a long-standing treaty with the US. Reuters

Mr Trump lost the presidential election, but authoritarian populism is very much alive across Asia. According to the latest surveys, Mr Duterte is arguably the world’s most popular head of state with a whopping 91 per cent approval rating.

Not only has the Filipino populist upended the country’s fragile democratic institutions, but he has also revolutionised the country’s foreign policy. Under his watch, Manila has gone from a major “non-Nato ally” in Asia to one of the West’s most pugnacious critics as well as China’s most colourful cheerleader.

Here is a democratically elected strongman, who has lashed out at American leaders, threatened to expel all European Union envoys and end the Philippines’ military alliance with the West. Mr Trump’s open embrace of fellow right-wing populists such as Mr Duterte has only encouraged him further.

Last year, Mr Duterte unilaterally terminated a key defence agreement with the US, the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA), the basis for hundreds of annual joint exercises, as well as the entry of tens of thousands of American troops on Philippine soil. The pretext? The US Congress’ imposition of human rights-related sanctions on Mr Duterte’s associates and top police officers for their involvement in a scorched-earth drug war, which has claimed thousands of lives.

In June, the Filipino President temporarily reinstated the defence agreement, but will certainly leverage the VFA as part of a broader quid pro quo with the incoming Biden administration, including assurances against new sanctions. To make matters more complicated, Mr Duterte is now demanding millions of Covid-19 vaccine doses in exchange for full restoration of the defence pact.

His brazen defiance and demands of Washington is not an isolated case. Instead, it is a palpable reflection of rising self-confidence among post-colonial leaders in Asia. From Malaysia to Indonesia and Cambodia, a growing number of regional leaders have openly defied America, questioned its "democracy promotion" initiatives, and found a willing patron in China.

Undoubtedly, the Asian powerhouse represents the most formidable challenge to Mr Biden's hope of restoring American leadership, especially on the continent. After centuries of being dormant, China has once again become the centre of trans-Asian trade, investments and increasingly geopolitics.

Thanks to its cutting-edge mercantilism and efficient developmental bureaucracy, China has managed to become the biggest winner of economic globalisation in the past half-century. In 1990, China’s nominal Gross Domestic Product was equivalent to only 6 per cent of that of the US. By 2016, when Mr Trump took over, its GDP was roughly three-fifths of that of the world's largest economy.

China's decisive management of the Covid-19 crisis means that it will be the only major economy to post positive GDP growth this year, placing it on the path to becoming the world's largest economy within less than a decade.

Crucially, Beijing has wasted no chance in translating its newfound prosperity into geopolitical influence (think of the Belt and Road Initiative), growing high-tech self-sufficiency (think of "Made in China 2025"), and a formidable military, including the development of indigenous aircraft carriers and the world's largest naval force.

With rising power comes deepening self-assurance. In response to growing bipartisan hostility in Washington and other major western capitals, Chinese President Xi Jinping has called on the country’s military to focus on “preparing for war” while accelerating the People’s Liberation Army’s modernisation programme.

The Long March-5 Y5 rocket, carrying the Chang'e-5 lunar probe, takes off from Wenchang Space Launch Center, in Wenchang, Hainan province, China November 24, 2020. File photo / Reuters
The Long March-5 Y5 rocket, carrying the Chang'e-5 lunar probe, takes off from Wenchang Space Launch Center, in Wenchang, Hainan province, China November 24, 2020. File photo / Reuters
A December 1 image of the moon surface taken by the panoramic camera aboard the lander-ascender combination of the Chang'e-5 spacecraft after landing on the moon. China National Space Administration (CNSA) / AFP
A December 1 image of the moon surface taken by the panoramic camera aboard the lander-ascender combination of the Chang'e-5 spacecraft after landing on the moon. China National Space Administration (CNSA) / AFP
A Chinese national flag unfurled from the Chang'e-5 lunar probe taken on December 4. China National Space Administration / AFP
A Chinese national flag unfurled from the Chang'e-5 lunar probe taken on December 4. China National Space Administration / AFP
An illustration (top) and a photo (bottom) of ascender of China's Chang'e-5 probe completing rendezvous and docking with the orbiter-returner combination. China National Space Administration / EPA
An illustration (top) and a photo (bottom) of ascender of China's Chang'e-5 probe completing rendezvous and docking with the orbiter-returner combination. China National Space Administration / EPA
China's Chang'e-5 spacecraft collects lunar samples on the moon. China National Space Administration / Reuters
China's Chang'e-5 spacecraft collects lunar samples on the moon. China National Space Administration / Reuters
The orbiter-returner combination of China's Chang'e-5 probe approaching the ascender. China National Space Administration / EPA
The orbiter-returner combination of China's Chang'e-5 probe approaching the ascender. China National Space Administration / EPA
The ascender stage of the Chang'e-5 spacecraft lifting off from the lunar surface. China National Space Administration / EPA
The ascender stage of the Chang'e-5 spacecraft lifting off from the lunar surface. China National Space Administration / EPA
This graphic simulation image provided by China National Space Administration shows the orbiter and returner combination of China's Chang'e-5 probe after its separation from the ascender. China National Space Administration / AP
This graphic simulation image provided by China National Space Administration shows the orbiter and returner combination of China's Chang'e-5 probe after its separation from the ascender. China National Space Administration / AP
A simulated image of the ascender of Chang'e-5 spacecraft blasting off from the lunar surface at the Beijing Aerospace Control Center (BACC) in Beijing on December 3, 2020. China National Space Administration / AP
A simulated image of the ascender of Chang'e-5 spacecraft blasting off from the lunar surface at the Beijing Aerospace Control Center (BACC) in Beijing on December 3, 2020. China National Space Administration / AP
Technical personnel monitoring the process during the Chang'e-5 lunar probe landing on the moon at the Beijing Aerospace Control Centre in Beijing. AFP
Technical personnel monitoring the process during the Chang'e-5 lunar probe landing on the moon at the Beijing Aerospace Control Centre in Beijing. AFP
Technical personnel work at the Beijing Aerospace Control Center (BACC) in Beijing. Xinhua via AP
Technical personnel work at the Beijing Aerospace Control Center (BACC) in Beijing. Xinhua via AP
A photo from 2012 showing Chinese astronauts from Liu Yang, Jing Haipeng and Liu Wang as they wave before a giant portrait of China's first astronaut Yang Liwei, as they depart for the Shenzhou 9 spacecraft rocket launch pad at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in Jiuquan, China. File photo / AP Photo.
A photo from 2012 showing Chinese astronauts from Liu Yang, Jing Haipeng and Liu Wang as they wave before a giant portrait of China's first astronaut Yang Liwei, as they depart for the Shenzhou 9 spacecraft rocket launch pad at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in Jiuquan, China. File photo / AP Photo.
A 2018 image of the Chang'e 4 lunar probe launching from the Xichang Satellite Launch Center in southwest China's Sichuan Province. Xinhua / AP Photo
A 2018 image of the Chang'e 4 lunar probe launching from the Xichang Satellite Launch Center in southwest China's Sichuan Province. Xinhua / AP Photo

For better or worse, China has become an indispensable stakeholder in global politics, especially in Asia. It has simply become too big to contain, and too powerful to ignore.

Despite his increasingly hawkish stance on China, Mr Biden will come under immense pressure to dial down the ongoing trade war, de-escalate military tensions, and find common ground with Beijing on major global concerns such as climate change, international public health, nuclear non-proliferation and free trade.

Otherwise, as former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger warned: “the world will slide into a catastrophe comparable to the First World War". Instead of continuing Mr Trump’s confrontational policy on China, Mr Biden will most certainly adopt a more differentiated and compartmentalised approach.

Meanwhile, the US will have to contend with another major geopolitical shift. Marooned by the recent turbulent years of Trumpian unilateralism, increasingly self-assertive "middle powers" such as India, Japan, and Australia have stepped up to the plate, demonstrating their unwillingness to be defined by the whims of superpowers.

As for China, it is at loggerheads with a number of neighbouring powers, including territorial disputes with India, Japan and Vietnam, not to mention diplomatic spats with farther away Australia. In response, regional powers across the Indo-Pacific are carving out their own spheres of influence, building their own networks of co-operation, and ramping up their own defence capabilities. In 21st-century Asia, geopolitical power has become more "horizontal", multifarious, multi-centered and dynamic.

The broader implications for American leadership and the contours of global order are enormous. What we are witnessing is an increasingly flat order rather than a hierarchical one, where middle and smaller powers collectively shape their own strategic destinies, thus ensuring that the future of Asia will depend neither on America nor China. As Mr Biden himself conceded: "We face a totally different world."

Richard Javad Heydarian is a Manila-based academic, having taught political science at Ateneo De Manila University and De La Salle University, Philippines

Key facilities
  • Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
  • Premier League-standard football pitch
  • 400m Olympic running track
  • NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
  • 600-seat auditorium
  • Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
  • An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
  • Specialist robotics and science laboratories
  • AR and VR-enabled learning centres
  • Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Indika
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On Women's Day
The rules on fostering in the UAE

A foster couple or family must:

  • be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
  • not be younger than 25 years old
  • not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
  • be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
  • have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
  • undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
  • A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
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'How To Build A Boat'
Jonathan Gornall, Simon & Schuster

While you're here
The years Ramadan fell in May

1987

1954

1921

1888

The%20specs
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25-MAN SQUAD

Goalkeepers: Francis Uzoho, Ikechukwu Ezenwa, Daniel Akpeyi
Defenders: Olaoluwa Aina, Abdullahi Shehu, Chidozie Awaziem, William Ekong, Leon Balogun, Kenneth Omeruo, Jamilu Collins, Semi Ajayi 
Midfielders: John Obi Mikel, Wilfred Ndidi, Oghenekaro Etebo, John Ogu
Forwards: Ahmed Musa, Victor Osimhen, Moses Simon, Henry Onyekuru, Odion Ighalo, Alexander Iwobi, Samuel Kalu, Paul Onuachu, Kelechi Iheanacho, Samuel Chukwueze 

On Standby: Theophilus Afelokhai, Bryan Idowu, Ikouwem Utin, Mikel Agu, Junior Ajayi, Valentine Ozornwafor

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The specs

AT4 Ultimate, as tested

Engine: 6.2-litre V8

Power: 420hp

Torque: 623Nm

Transmission: 10-speed automatic

Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)

On sale: Now

Haircare resolutions 2021

From Beirut and Amman to London and now Dubai, hairstylist George Massoud has seen the same mistakes made by customers all over the world. In the chair or at-home hair care, here are the resolutions he wishes his customers would make for the year ahead.

1. 'I will seek consultation from professionals'

You may know what you want, but are you sure it’s going to suit you? Haircare professionals can tell you what will work best with your skin tone, hair texture and lifestyle.

2. 'I will tell my hairdresser when I’m not happy'

Massoud says it’s better to offer constructive criticism to work on in the future. Your hairdresser will learn, and you may discover how to communicate exactly what you want more effectively the next time.

3. ‘I will treat my hair better out of the chair’

Damage control is a big part of most hairstylists’ work right now, but it can be avoided. Steer clear of over-colouring at home, try and pursue one hair brand at a time and never, ever use a straightener on still drying hair, pleads Massoud.

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If you go:
The flights: Etihad, Emirates, British Airways and Virgin all fly from the UAE to London from Dh2,700 return, including taxes
The tours: The Tour for Muggles usually runs several times a day, lasts about two-and-a-half hours and costs £14 (Dh67)
Harry Potter and the Cursed Child is on now at the Palace Theatre. Tickets need booking significantly in advance
Entrance to the Harry Potter exhibition at the House of MinaLima is free
The hotel: The grand, 1909-built Strand Palace Hotel is in a handy location near the Theatre District and several of the key Harry Potter filming and inspiration sites. The family rooms are spacious, with sofa beds that can accommodate children, and wooden shutters that keep out the light at night. Rooms cost from £170 (Dh808).

Stormy seas

Weather warnings show that Storm Eunice is soon to make landfall. The videographer and I are scrambling to return to the other side of the Channel before it does. As we race to the port of Calais, I see miles of wire fencing topped with barbed wire all around it, a silent ‘Keep Out’ sign for those who, unlike us, aren’t lucky enough to have the right to move freely and safely across borders.

We set sail on a giant ferry whose length dwarfs the dinghies migrants use by nearly a 100 times. Despite the windy rain lashing at the portholes, we arrive safely in Dover; grateful but acutely aware of the miserable conditions the people we’ve left behind are in and of the privilege of choice. 

Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The specs

Engine: 3.8-litre, twin-turbo V8

Transmission: eight-speed automatic

Power: 582bhp

Torque: 730Nm

Price: Dh649,000

On sale: now  

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Poacher
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Funk Wav Bounces Vol.1
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Company profile

Name: Steppi

Founders: Joe Franklin and Milos Savic

Launched: February 2020

Size: 10,000 users by the end of July and a goal of 200,000 users by the end of the year

Employees: Five

Based: Jumeirah Lakes Towers, Dubai

Financing stage: Two seed rounds – the first sourced from angel investors and the founders' personal savings

Second round raised Dh720,000 from silent investors in June this year

The five pillars of Islam

1. Fasting

2. Prayer

3. Hajj

4. Shahada

5. Zakat 

Tomorrow 2021
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Starring: Saja Kilani, Clara Khoury, Motaz Malhees

Director: Kaouther Ben Hania

Rating: 4/5

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Company%20Profile
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War and the virus
Dubai works towards better air quality by 2021

Dubai is on a mission to record good air quality for 90 per cent of the year – up from 86 per cent annually today – by 2021.

The municipality plans to have seven mobile air-monitoring stations by 2020 to capture more accurate data in hourly and daily trends of pollution.

These will be on the Palm Jumeirah, Al Qusais, Muhaisnah, Rashidiyah, Al Wasl, Al Quoz and Dubai Investment Park.

“It will allow real-time responding for emergency cases,” said Khaldoon Al Daraji, first environment safety officer at the municipality.

“We’re in a good position except for the cases that are out of our hands, such as sandstorms.

“Sandstorms are our main concern because the UAE is just a receiver.

“The hotspots are Iran, Saudi Arabia and southern Iraq, but we’re working hard with the region to reduce the cycle of sandstorm generation.”

Mr Al Daraji said monitoring as it stood covered 47 per cent of Dubai.

There are 12 fixed stations in the emirate, but Dubai also receives information from monitors belonging to other entities.

“There are 25 stations in total,” Mr Al Daraji said.

“We added new technology and equipment used for the first time for the detection of heavy metals.

“A hundred parameters can be detected but we want to expand it to make sure that the data captured can allow a baseline study in some areas to ensure they are well positioned.”

Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20HyveGeo%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Abdulaziz%20bin%20Redha%2C%20Dr%20Samsurin%20Welch%2C%20Eva%20Morales%20and%20Dr%20Harjit%20Singh%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ECambridge%20and%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%208%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESustainability%20%26amp%3B%20Environment%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%24200%2C000%20plus%20undisclosed%20grant%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EVenture%20capital%20and%20government%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 2.5-litre, turbocharged 5-cylinder

Transmission: seven-speed auto

Power: 400hp

Torque: 500Nm

Price: Dh300,000 (estimate)

On sale: 2022 

Results

United States beat UAE by three wickets

United States beat Scotland by 35 runs

UAE v Scotland – no result

United States beat UAE by 98 runs

Scotland beat United States by four wickets

Fixtures

Sunday, 10am, ICC Academy, Dubai - UAE v Scotland

Admission is free

Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The burning issue

The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE. 

Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on

Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins

Read part two: how climate change drove the race for an alternative 

What sanctions would be reimposed?

Under ‘snapback’, measures imposed on Iran by the UN Security Council in six resolutions would be restored, including:

  • An arms embargo
  • A ban on uranium enrichment and reprocessing
  • A ban on launches and other activities with ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, as well as ballistic missile technology transfer and technical assistance
  • A targeted global asset freeze and travel ban on Iranian individuals and entities
  • Authorisation for countries to inspect Iran Air Cargo and Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines cargoes for banned goods
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BUNDESLIGA FIXTURES

Friday (UAE kick-off times)

Borussia Dortmund v Paderborn (11.30pm)

Saturday 

Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg (6.30pm)

Werder Bremen v Schalke (6.30pm)

Union Berlin v Borussia Monchengladbach (6.30pm)

Eintracht Frankfurt v Wolfsburg (6.30pm)

Fortuna Dusseldof v  Bayern Munich (6.30pm)

RB Leipzig v Cologne (9.30pm)

Sunday

Augsburg v Hertha Berlin (6.30pm)

Hoffenheim v Mainz (9pm)

 

 

 

 

 

MATCH INFO

Day 2 at the Gabba

Australia 312-1 

Warner 151 not out, Burns 97,  Labuschagne 55 not out

Pakistan 240 

Shafiq 76, Starc 4-52

The burning issue

The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE. 

Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on

Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins

Read part one: how cars came to the UAE

 

OpinionComment