On December 22, French President Emmanuel Macron will travel to Lebanon for the third time in five months. While his plan is to visit with French UN peacekeepers, Mr Macron will also be keen to see where Lebanon's politicians are in forming a new government. Such a government is necessary to carry out economic reforms, in return for which the French president promised in September to mobilise international financial assistance for Lebanon.
Mr Macron was criticised for wasting his credibility in pushing the hopelessly corrupt Lebanese politicians to enact reforms. There were those who said the French president was bound to fail for wagering on these officials, while others condemned Mr Macron’s dialogue with Hezbollah. The French President took a more sanguine view, saying that as the party was an essential component of Lebanese political life, trying to circumvent it made little sense.
Some time ago, however, the French recalibrated in Lebanon by saying that it was up to Lebanese officials to save their own country. In that way they played down Mr Macron’s stalled initiative to encourage Lebanon to set up a government of apolitical specialists and implement a reform plan that could unlock aid from the International Monetary Fund and other international institutions.
But Mr Macron is still keen to help Lebanon once the politicians can get over their deep divisions and form a government. The reason is that if nothing is done soon, Lebanon risks reaching a stage of complete collapse, without enough foreign currency reserves to finance the importation of vital necessities such as food, medicine and fuel. Within a matter of weeks, the government is expected to remove subsidies on a wide range of products, which will accelerate hyperinflation.
In this context, social unrest is likely. France continues to want to provide a safety net if that happens, as instability in Lebanon could have a negative affect on Europe. More realistically, the French maybe assume that once everything breaks down, the latitude of Lebanese politicians to resist reform will diminish, so that French intervention will be needed to help the country out of its mess.
The Trump administration has taken a more hardline position on Lebanon and on the Macron initiative. Last September, in private a US official visiting Beirut did not hide his mistrust of France's contacts with Hezbollah. While the official stated that Washington did not want to undermine the French plan, he noted that the administration would soon introduce sanctions against people not tied to Hezbollah, representing an escalation from sanctions past.
A week later that is exactly what happened when Washington sanctioned Ali Hassan Khalil and Youssef Fenianos – Lebanon's former finance minister and its former transport minister. Mr Khalil is a close collaborator of parliament speaker Nabih Berri, while Mr Fenianos is an ally of the pro-Syrian Christian politician Suleiman Franjieh. The sanctions were supposedly not aimed at derailing the French initiative but that is precisely what they did.
Yes, it may mean engaging indirectly with Hezbollah but no realistic change can happen if the party is left out
Negotiations over a government came to a standstill, as Mr Berri, the indirect target of the sanctions, apparently concluded that he had nothing to gain by being flexible on the government then being formed and nothing to lose by playing tough. The timing of the US move was questionable. And while other factors helped to block the process, sanctions were the icing on the cake.
Much the same happened when Saad Hariri began forming his government in October. There were inherent obstacles to the cabinet-formation process, not least the mistrust between Mr Hariri and Gebran Bassil, the head of the Free Patriotic Movement and son-in-law of President Michel Aoun. However, when Mr Bassil was also sanctioned by the US in November, it again made progress all but impossible, as Mr Bassil, feeling threatened, saw no reason to facilitate things.
The US has long used sanctions as if they were a silver bullet that could resolve intractable problems. But the reality is they rarely do. In Lebanon’s case they had the effect of hindering the only serious proposal available to help spur the country's economic revival. Washington’s hard line may satisfy some people – and few regretted seeing Mr Bassil targeted. But when the country urgently needs a government, the sanctions only made matters worse.
Lebanon's politicians form a corrupt cartel, so it is easy to take pleasure in their distress. But the delay in forming a government, on which international pressure could be put to introduce reform measures, is mainly causing suffering among Lebanon's population, with roughly 50 per cent estimated to be below the poverty line. While the US can take satisfaction in refusing to talk to Hezbollah and obstructing the Macron plan, it offers nothing tangible to help Lebanon.
That is why it is imperative that the international community and the new Biden administration put their full weight behind the French initiative and use it to break the resistance to reform from Lebanon's reprehensible politicians. Yes, it may mean engaging indirectly with Hezbollah but no realistic change can happen if the party is left out. Lebanon is nearing a point of no return. The consequence may be a social explosion and even famine. Avoiding this must be a priority.
Michael Young is a Lebanon columnist for The National
My Country: A Syrian Memoir
Kassem Eid, Bloomsbury
Mina Cup winners
Under 12 – Minerva Academy
Under 14 – Unam Pumas
Under 16 – Fursan Hispania
Under 18 – Madenat
The specs: Audi e-tron
Price, base: From Dh325,000 (estimate)
Engine: Twin electric motors and 95kWh battery pack
Transmission: Single-speed auto
Power: 408hp
Torque: 664Nm
Range: 400 kilometres
Sonchiriya
Director: Abhishek Chaubey
Producer: RSVP Movies, Azure Entertainment
Cast: Sushant Singh Rajput, Manoj Bajpayee, Ashutosh Rana, Bhumi Pednekar, Ranvir Shorey
Rating: 3/5
War 2
Director: Ayan Mukerji
Stars: Hrithik Roshan, NTR, Kiara Advani, Ashutosh Rana
Rating: 2/5
Sly%20Cooper%20and%20the%20Thievius%20Raccoonus
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDeveloper%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Sucker%20Punch%20Productions%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Sony%20Computer%20Entertainment%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EConsole%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20PlayStation%202%20to%205%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%205%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
ANDROID%20VERSION%20NAMES%2C%20IN%20ORDER
%3Cp%3EAndroid%20Alpha%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAndroid%20Beta%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAndroid%20Cupcake%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAndroid%20Donut%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAndroid%20Eclair%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAndroid%20Froyo%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAndroid%20Gingerbread%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAndroid%20Honeycomb%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAndroid%20Ice%20Cream%20Sandwich%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAndroid%20Jelly%20Bean%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAndroid%20KitKat%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAndroid%20Lollipop%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAndroid%20Marshmallow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAndroid%20Nougat%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAndroid%20Oreo%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAndroid%20Pie%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAndroid%2010%20(Quince%20Tart*)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAndroid%2011%20(Red%20Velvet%20Cake*)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAndroid%2012%20(Snow%20Cone*)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAndroid%2013%20(Tiramisu*)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAndroid%2014%20(Upside%20Down%20Cake*)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAndroid%2015%20(Vanilla%20Ice%20Cream*)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cem%3E*%20internal%20codenames%3C%2Fem%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Manchester City 4
Otamendi (52) Sterling (59) Stones (67) Brahim Diaz (81)
Real Madrid 1
Oscar (90)
THE%20SWIMMERS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESally%20El-Hosaini%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENathalie%20Issa%2C%20Manal%20Issa%2C%20Ahmed%20Malek%20and%20Ali%20Suliman%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Brief scores:
Toss: South Africa, chose to field
Pakistan: 177 & 294
South Africa: 431 & 43-1
Man of the Match: Faf du Plessis (South Africa)
Series: South Africa lead three-match series 2-0
Pharaoh's curse
British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.
ICC men's cricketer of the year
2004 - Rahul Dravid (IND) ; 2005 - Jacques Kallis (SA) and Andrew Flintoff (ENG); 2006 - Ricky Ponting (AUS); 2007 - Ricky Ponting; 2008 - Shivnarine Chanderpaul (WI); 2009 - Mitchell Johnson (AUS); 2010 - Sachin Tendulkar (IND); 2011 - Jonathan Trott (ENG); 2012 - Kumar Sangakkara (SL); 2013 - Michael Clarke (AUS); 2014 - Mitchell Johnson; 2015 - Steve Smith (AUS); 2016 - Ravichandran Ashwin (IND); 2017 - Virat Kohli (IND); 2018 - Virat Kohli; 2019 - Ben Stokes (ENG); 2021 - Shaheen Afridi
Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
The biog
Name: Fareed Lafta
Age: 40
From: Baghdad, Iraq
Mission: Promote world peace
Favourite poet: Al Mutanabbi
Role models: His parents
Tales of Yusuf Tadros
Adel Esmat (translated by Mandy McClure)
Hoopoe
ENGLAND SQUAD
For first two Test in India Joe Root (captain), Jofra Archer, Moeen Ali, James Anderson , Dom Bess, Stuart Broad , Rory Burns, Jos Buttler, Zak Crawley, Ben Foakes, Dan Lawrence, Jack Leach, Dom Sibley, Ben Stokes, Olly Stone, Chris Woakes. Reserves James Bracey, Mason Crane, Saqib Mahmood, Matthew Parkinson, Ollie Robinson, Amar Virdi.
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
In numbers
Number of Chinese tourists coming to UAE in 2017 was... 1.3m
Alibaba’s new ‘Tech Town’ in Dubai is worth... $600m
China’s investment in the MIddle East in 2016 was... $29.5bn
The world’s most valuable start-up in 2018, TikTok, is valued at... $75bn
Boost to the UAE economy of 5G connectivity will be... $269bn
MATCH INFO
Juventus 1 (Dybala 45')
Lazio 3 (Alberto 16', Lulic 73', Cataldi 90 4')
Red card: Rodrigo Bentancur (Juventus)
MATCH INFO
Syria v Australia
2018 World Cup qualifying: Asia fourth round play-off first leg
Venue: Hang Jebat Stadium (Malacca, Malayisa)
Kick-off: Thursday, 4.30pm (UAE)
Watch: beIN Sports HD
* Second leg in Australia scheduled for October 10
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
