On December 22, French President Emmanuel Macron will travel to Lebanon for the third time in five months. While his plan is to visit with French UN peacekeepers, Mr Macron will also be keen to see where Lebanon's politicians are in forming a new government. Such a government is necessary to carry out economic reforms, in return for which the French president promised in September to mobilise international financial assistance for Lebanon.
Mr Macron was criticised for wasting his credibility in pushing the hopelessly corrupt Lebanese politicians to enact reforms. There were those who said the French president was bound to fail for wagering on these officials, while others condemned Mr Macron’s dialogue with Hezbollah. The French President took a more sanguine view, saying that as the party was an essential component of Lebanese political life, trying to circumvent it made little sense.
Some time ago, however, the French recalibrated in Lebanon by saying that it was up to Lebanese officials to save their own country. In that way they played down Mr Macron’s stalled initiative to encourage Lebanon to set up a government of apolitical specialists and implement a reform plan that could unlock aid from the International Monetary Fund and other international institutions.
But Mr Macron is still keen to help Lebanon once the politicians can get over their deep divisions and form a government. The reason is that if nothing is done soon, Lebanon risks reaching a stage of complete collapse, without enough foreign currency reserves to finance the importation of vital necessities such as food, medicine and fuel. Within a matter of weeks, the government is expected to remove subsidies on a wide range of products, which will accelerate hyperinflation.
In this context, social unrest is likely. France continues to want to provide a safety net if that happens, as instability in Lebanon could have a negative affect on Europe. More realistically, the French maybe assume that once everything breaks down, the latitude of Lebanese politicians to resist reform will diminish, so that French intervention will be needed to help the country out of its mess.
The Trump administration has taken a more hardline position on Lebanon and on the Macron initiative. Last September, in private a US official visiting Beirut did not hide his mistrust of France's contacts with Hezbollah. While the official stated that Washington did not want to undermine the French plan, he noted that the administration would soon introduce sanctions against people not tied to Hezbollah, representing an escalation from sanctions past.
A week later that is exactly what happened when Washington sanctioned Ali Hassan Khalil and Youssef Fenianos – Lebanon's former finance minister and its former transport minister. Mr Khalil is a close collaborator of parliament speaker Nabih Berri, while Mr Fenianos is an ally of the pro-Syrian Christian politician Suleiman Franjieh. The sanctions were supposedly not aimed at derailing the French initiative but that is precisely what they did.
Yes, it may mean engaging indirectly with Hezbollah but no realistic change can happen if the party is left out
Negotiations over a government came to a standstill, as Mr Berri, the indirect target of the sanctions, apparently concluded that he had nothing to gain by being flexible on the government then being formed and nothing to lose by playing tough. The timing of the US move was questionable. And while other factors helped to block the process, sanctions were the icing on the cake.
Much the same happened when Saad Hariri began forming his government in October. There were inherent obstacles to the cabinet-formation process, not least the mistrust between Mr Hariri and Gebran Bassil, the head of the Free Patriotic Movement and son-in-law of President Michel Aoun. However, when Mr Bassil was also sanctioned by the US in November, it again made progress all but impossible, as Mr Bassil, feeling threatened, saw no reason to facilitate things.
The US has long used sanctions as if they were a silver bullet that could resolve intractable problems. But the reality is they rarely do. In Lebanon’s case they had the effect of hindering the only serious proposal available to help spur the country's economic revival. Washington’s hard line may satisfy some people – and few regretted seeing Mr Bassil targeted. But when the country urgently needs a government, the sanctions only made matters worse.
Lebanon's politicians form a corrupt cartel, so it is easy to take pleasure in their distress. But the delay in forming a government, on which international pressure could be put to introduce reform measures, is mainly causing suffering among Lebanon's population, with roughly 50 per cent estimated to be below the poverty line. While the US can take satisfaction in refusing to talk to Hezbollah and obstructing the Macron plan, it offers nothing tangible to help Lebanon.
That is why it is imperative that the international community and the new Biden administration put their full weight behind the French initiative and use it to break the resistance to reform from Lebanon's reprehensible politicians. Yes, it may mean engaging indirectly with Hezbollah but no realistic change can happen if the party is left out. Lebanon is nearing a point of no return. The consequence may be a social explosion and even famine. Avoiding this must be a priority.
Michael Young is a Lebanon columnist for The National
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Iftar programme at the Sheikh Mohammed Centre for Cultural Understanding
Established in 1998, the Sheikh Mohammed Centre for Cultural Understanding was created with a vision to teach residents about the traditions and customs of the UAE. Its motto is ‘open doors, open minds’. All year-round, visitors can sign up for a traditional Emirati breakfast, lunch or dinner meal, as well as a range of walking tours, including ones to sites such as the Jumeirah Mosque or Al Fahidi Historical Neighbourhood.
Every year during Ramadan, an iftar programme is rolled out. This allows guests to break their fast with the centre’s presenters, visit a nearby mosque and observe their guides while they pray. These events last for about two hours and are open to the public, or can be booked for a private event.
Until the end of Ramadan, the iftar events take place from 7pm until 9pm, from Saturday to Thursday. Advanced booking is required.
For more details, email openminds@cultures.ae or visit www.cultures.ae
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HIJRA
Starring: Lamar Faden, Khairiah Nathmy, Nawaf Al-Dhufairy
Director: Shahad Ameen
Rating: 3/5
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How to keep control of your emotions
If your investment decisions are being dictated by emotions such as fear, greed, hope, frustration and boredom, it is time for a rethink, Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at online trading platform IG, says.
Greed
Greedy investors trade beyond their means, open more positions than usual or hold on to positions too long to chase an even greater gain. “All too often, they incur a heavy loss and may even wipe out the profit already made.
Tip: Ignore the short-term hype, noise and froth and invest for the long-term plan, based on sound fundamentals.
Fear
The risk of making a loss can cloud decision-making. “This can cause you to close out a position too early, or miss out on a profit by being too afraid to open a trade,” he says.
Tip: Start with a plan, and stick to it. For added security, consider placing stops to reduce any losses and limits to lock in profits.
Hope
While all traders need hope to start trading, excessive optimism can backfire. Too many traders hold on to a losing trade because they believe that it will reverse its trend and become profitable.
Tip: Set realistic goals. Be happy with what you have earned, rather than frustrated by what you could have earned.
Frustration
Traders can get annoyed when the markets have behaved in unexpected ways and generates losses or fails to deliver anticipated gains.
Tip: Accept in advance that asset price movements are completely unpredictable and you will suffer losses at some point. These can be managed, say, by attaching stops and limits to your trades.
Boredom
Too many investors buy and sell because they want something to do. They are trading as entertainment, rather than in the hope of making money. As well as making bad decisions, the extra dealing charges eat into returns.
Tip: Open an online demo account and get your thrills without risking real money.
The specs: Macan Turbo
Engine: Dual synchronous electric motors
Power: 639hp
Torque: 1,130Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Touring range: 591km
Price: From Dh412,500
On sale: Deliveries start in October
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
What are NFTs?
Are non-fungible tokens a currency, asset, or a licensing instrument? Arnab Das, global market strategist EMEA at Invesco, says they are mix of all of three.
You can buy, hold and use NFTs just like US dollars and Bitcoins. “They can appreciate in value and even produce cash flows.”
However, while money is fungible, NFTs are not. “One Bitcoin, dollar, euro or dirham is largely indistinguishable from the next. Nothing ties a dollar bill to a particular owner, for example. Nor does it tie you to to any goods, services or assets you bought with that currency. In contrast, NFTs confer specific ownership,” Mr Das says.
This makes NFTs closer to a piece of intellectual property such as a work of art or licence, as you can claim royalties or profit by exchanging it at a higher value later, Mr Das says. “They could provide a sustainable income stream.”
This income will depend on future demand and use, which makes NFTs difficult to value. “However, there is a credible use case for many forms of intellectual property, notably art, songs, videos,” Mr Das says.
More on Quran memorisation:
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, Leon.
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
more from Janine di Giovanni
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
POSSIBLE ENGLAND EURO 2020 SQUAD
Goalkeepers: Jordan Pickford, Nick Pope, Dean Henderson.
Defenders: Trent Alexander-Arnold, Kieran Trippier, Joe Gomez, John Stones, Harry Maguire, Tyrone Mings, Ben Chilwell, Fabian Delph.
Midfielders: Declan Rice, Harry Winks, Jordan Henderson, Ross Barkley, Mason Mount, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain.
Forwards: Harry Kane, Raheem Sterling, Marcus Rashford, Jadon Sancho, Tammy Abraham, Callum Hudson-Odoi.
The Word for Woman is Wilderness
Abi Andrews, Serpent’s Tail
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
New UK refugee system
- A new “core protection” for refugees moving from permanent to a more basic, temporary protection
- Shortened leave to remain - refugees will receive 30 months instead of five years
- A longer path to settlement with no indefinite settled status until a refugee has spent 20 years in Britain
- To encourage refugees to integrate the government will encourage them to out of the core protection route wherever possible.
- Under core protection there will be no automatic right to family reunion
- Refugees will have a reduced right to public funds
Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
