There is no vaccine for the Covid-19 pandemic but that has not stopped the conspiracy theorists playing a profoundly important role in the course of the outbreak.
The global anti-vaccine pushback, which is particularly powerful in the US, has metamorphosed through the emergence of the coronavirus. German protest groups have proliferated on the back of a decades-old Stuttgart-based schools movement, while France has seen a groundswell of alternative medicine proponents.
As bad as the coronavirus tragedy is, there is an enormous constituency that is getting ready for a battle of wills over the vaccine. Never before has a treatment been so anticipated. If it emerges, it could be delivered to an unprecedented six billion people. After all, the old as well as the young will need a shot at the same time.
Read More from Damien McElroy
Facebook, Twitter and other social media platforms have betrayed promises to reign in the spread of fake theories and pseudo advice. So one of the most virulent information storms in history is building up. While the vaccine is the future crescendo, the fight over health and preventative measures is the here and now.
The current advice on stopping the spread of Covid-19 has encountered massive resistance. The anti-vaxxers movement has spread its tentacles through US society – and elsewhere – by protesting the lockdown.
Vociferous campaigns against masks and face coverings are the most obvious products of this refusenik strain. Its supporters argue that the state is exerting control over individuals through public health measures. Speaking to a Florida official commission hearing last week, one woman opined that wearing a mask was "trying to throw out God's wonderful breathing system".
The latest ruse among mask opponents is carrying laminated cards that proclaim that the holder is exempt from any government regulation stipulating its adoption.
The cause of not wearing a mask has taken off and has echoes of the 1918 leagues in the US against wearing a face covering. Sadly, official advice from scientists and regulators on preventive face masks has been weak in many countries. The political edge to the debate means that video-fuelled social media campaigns are all the more vociferous and effective.
For a taste of how all the issues provided by Covid-19 link together, look at the toxic swamp of attacks on Bill Gates.
The US computing pioneer has set aside nearly $50 billion for his own charitable foundation. If the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation was a country, it would rank as something like the 90th richest state in the world. Yet conspiracists twist this giving into an argument that the pandemic is a tool for Mr Gates to control the world. He is said to have the World Health Organisation under his spell. Now, by dint of America's withdrawal of WHO funding, the foundation could end up as its largest source of funds. But that is a long chalk from asserting that he controls the UN body.
Other online claims are that Mr Gates controls a patent holder that unleashed the coronavirus. Posts have recycled a fabricated rumour that Mr Gates has an active agenda to reduce the world population, either by sterilisation and enforced birth control, or by unleashing diseases. Other conspiracies hone in on questions over why the foundation has been organising “pandemic-prepping” events – frequently referred to as "Event 201" – to be ready to capitalise on an upcoming novel virus on the loose.
The foundation rebuts any figures that are thrown its way but it has little hope of reversing the narrative. The conspiracists have no heed to reason. Confusion is not limited to mobilising a fearful minority. As the social media platforms sowed the wind, America now reaps the whirlwind with its daily infection rates hitting four records in succession last week.
A paper from the Brookings Institution has shown how the country can still move on to the next phase. By marrying the work of epidemiologists with that of economists, the paper said that the infection rate could be contained even as businesses re-opened. It warned that a renewed lockdown would be disastrous.
“If countered by a second round of economic shutdowns, short-term unemployment could become long term, firms could close, and prospects for a quick recovery could be significantly impaired.”
Instead, it argues that by accepting four principles, the US can still contain the worst ravages of the outbreak. These are to place limitations on mass gatherings, especially those indoors; encouragement of widespread wearing of masks; increased testing; and special shielding protections for the vulnerable, particularly for the elderly in care homes.
The projected death toll would still rise from the current 130,000 level to about 160,000 by the end of the year. By contrast, a failure to impose any restrictions and rejecting a second wave shutdown would see a death toll of 450,000 by January.
It is therefore important to remember that dangerous times, both online and in the streets, should not trump the basic facts of how disease spreads.
Damien McElroy is the London bureau chief of The National
The specs: 2018 Volkswagen Teramont
Price, base / as tested Dh137,000 / Dh189,950
Engine 3.6-litre V6
Gearbox Eight-speed automatic
Power 280hp @ 6,200rpm
Torque 360Nm @ 2,750rpm
Fuel economy, combined 11.7L / 100km
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The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo
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Price: Dh133,900
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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What's in the deal?
Agreement aims to boost trade by £25.5bn a year in the long run, compared with a total of £42.6bn in 2024
India will slash levies on medical devices, machinery, cosmetics, soft drinks and lamb.
India will also cut automotive tariffs to 10% under a quota from over 100% currently.
Indian employees in the UK will receive three years exemption from social security payments
India expects 99% of exports to benefit from zero duty, raising opportunities for textiles, marine products, footwear and jewellery
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Engine: 5.0-litre supercharged V8
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The lowdown
Badla
Rating: 2.5/5
Produced by: Red Chillies, Azure Entertainment
Director: Sujoy Ghosh
Cast: Amitabh Bachchan, Taapsee Pannu, Amrita Singh, Tony Luke