Since the so-called "Islamic revolution" of 1979, the problem of Iran has bedevilled every US president. Joe Biden is no exception. The challenge intensified following the 2003 US invasion of Iraq. But at no point in the past two decades has the US developed a viable long-term strategy for dealing with Iran.
Mr Biden has placed Iran at the top of his international priorities. That gives him the opportunity to craft a strategy that learns lessons from his predecessors' successes and failures. Most importantly, he could establish a broad framework that avoids fragmented or contradictory partial solutions and that bequeaths coherence to his own successors.
A persistent lack of coherence has been central to his predecessor's failures.
Although George W Bush reviled the Iranian regime as part of an "axis of evil", he greatly strengthened Tehran by, among other things, invading Iraq, leaving the country shattered and largely dominated by Iranian proxies.
The 2015 nuclear deal was Barack Obama's signature foreign policy achievement but it was both flawed and limited. The agreement merely postponed a reckoning over Iran's nuclear ambitions for about a decade and resolved nothing. It also left Iran's other destabilising policies, particularly its support for a network of sectarian armed gangs in neighbouring Arab countries, completely unaddressed.
If anyone in the Obama administration was hoping that the sanctions relief and international legitimacy provided by the nuclear deal would moderate Tehran's behaviour, they were deeply disappointed.
Donald Trump promptly charged in the opposite direction, walking away from the agreement in 2018 and imposing a thoroughgoing regime of "maximum pressure" sanctions. But while the sanctions created significant economic hardship for Iran, Tehran's regional behaviour became more belligerent than ever.
Because reality is complex, it isn't automatically true that Iranian setbacks translate into American successes. Indeed, Mr Trump found no formula for achieving anything through the considerable pressure and leverage he accumulated.
An explosion is seen in Baghdad March 20, 2003, as the US launched a war on Iraq with air strikes on the capital. AFP
Smoke covers the presidential palace compound in Baghdad on March 21, 2003 during a massive US-led air raid on the Iraqi capital. Smoke billowed from a number of targeted sites, including one of President Saddam Hussein's palaces, an AFP correspondent said. AFP
A park catches fire during a US strike on a presidential palace in Baghdad late March 22, 2003. The Iraqi capital came under heavy bombardment for the third consecutive night. AFP
Smoke billows from oil trenches in Baghdad March 23, 2003. Fuel trenches were set on fire on the outskirts of Baghdad, ringing the capital with plumes of thick smoke. AFP
Women grieve outside a house destroyed in US bombing in Baghdad's al-Aazamiya neighborhood on March 24, 2003. Five members of the same family were killed and at least 28 others wounded when a missile fired by allied warplanes hit houses in the densely populated area in the Iraqi capital, according to residents. AFP
Rescuers carry a stretcher over the debris of a house destroyed in a US bombing of Baghdad's al-Aazamiya neighborhood on March 24, 2003. AFP
Smoke from burning oil trenches covers the Martyrs monument, one of Baghdad's main landmarks on March 24, 2003. AFP
Explosions rock Baghdad late March 29, 2003 during a coalition raid on the Iraqi capital. It was not immediately clear what targets had been hit in the bombing on the southern rim of the city but Iraqi satellite television broadcasting outside the country was interrupted. AFP
Greek journalist Efetefia Pentaraki and her Iraqi guide Maohamad al-Rashid run for cover as the al-Salehiya telecomunication center is hit by a missile during a coalition air raid on Baghdad on March 30, 2003. AFP
Smoke billows from an explosion in Iraqi President Saddam Hussein's guest palace bombed during a coalition air raid on March 31, 2003. AFP
Iraqis fleeing Baghdad sit with their belongings in the back of a pick-up truck on March 31, 2003, as smoke billowing from burning oil trenches covers the sky. AFP
Mr Biden inherits this legacy of profound confusion on one of his key priorities.
He clearly wants to revive nuclear diplomacy and even the 2015 agreement, but insists important lessons were learned from the failures and eventual collapse of the Obama approach.
The good news is that the Biden administration isn’t rushing into anything, and may even be dawdling a little.
The bad news is that senior administration officials may be so fixated on preventing Iran from going nuclear that some appear to think that this is the only really serious problem confronting Washington in the Middle East and that everything else is relatively minor.
Yet a single-minded fixation on reviving or even "fixing" the deal would trap Washington in the same fragmentary and contradictory framework responsible for 20 years of failure.
Iran's Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, left, with then US secretary of state John Kerry, right, in Vienna in 2014. The 2015 nuclear deal, known as JCPOA, was flawed and limited. Reuters
In an important new essay, Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace suggests a modified version of the "containment" policy the US deployed towards the Soviet Union and its network of allies to provide a rational, unifying structure to the US approach towards Iran over the long run.
Shifting to such a "Cold War" model begins by recognising that a meaningful rapprochement between Washington and an unreconstructed Islamic Republic is simply impossible. Opposition to the US is hardwired into the core identity of this regime.
Expecting anything else is naive.
Such a radical transformation in Iran's worldview and policies towards the US and the rest of the Middle East would surely signal the end of the Islamic Republic as it has existed since 1979. Whether such a change is viewed as revolutionary, imposed on the state from outside the regime, or evolutionary, with existing structures taking the lead in such a shift, is irrelevant semantics. The resulting reality would be the same and utterly transformational.
George W Bush stands with Barack Obama, Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter in the Oval Office of the White House in 2009. Successive US presidents have got their Iran strategy wrong. AFP
Obama hoped JCPOA would encourage evolutionary change. It didn't. Trump hoped 'maximum pressure' would result in regime collapse. Not even close
Therefore, two key realities must be simultaneously acknowledged.
First, such a transformation must be the long-term goal of the US and its allies, because real reconciliation with this regime as it stands is not possible. But, second, such a change, no matter how vital, cannot be imposed from the outside.
The Obama administration appeared to be hoping that the nuclear agreement would strengthen "moderates" and encourage evolutionary change. It didn't. The Trump administration seemed to be hoping "maximum pressure" would result in regime collapse. Not even close.
Neither aspiration was realistic, and the resulting policies were at least somewhat misguided and ultimately ineffective.
The containment framework Sadjadpour suggests would, drawing on the US' broadly successful Cold War policies towards the Soviet Union, have three main prongs. It would seek to bolster US allies; undermine Iran's own network of support; and use both carrots and sticks to influence Tehran's policies. Its purpose would, eventually, be to provide a framework for fundamental, but domestically driven, change inside Iran.
Mr Biden's goal of an early return to the nuclear agreement fits nicely into this framework, as long as it's not an end in itself. So might a far broader diplomatic engagement with Iran if possible.
But the US would have to take care to strengthen ties to its own regional allies, all of which have a stake in keeping Iran non-nuclear.
Also indispensable would be major efforts to combat and fragment Iran's regional network of violent gangs, primarily by strengthening the dilapidated Arab state structures that Iran's militia proxies prey upon.
This approach also requires the careful reconceptualisation of both sanctions and engagement with Iran, all carefully tailored to promote Iranian civil society and turn social, political and nationalist aspirations against the regime itself.
US President Joe Biden has an opportunity to reset US strategy vis-a-vis Iran. AFP
The keys would be persistence, patience and the understanding that Iranians will only change their system when they are ready and on their own terms. Clearly there's already a great deal to work with in Iranian society, but that can only be done with subtlety and a clear vision.
Such a framework can provide coherence and flexibility, allowing what might otherwise be contradictory impulses and policies to become mutually reinforcing.
Without a guiding strategic concept, based on the largely successful American approach to a far more challenging and dangerous Soviet adversary, Washington is likely to continue to stumble from one miscalculation and missed opportunity to another.
Hussein Ibish is a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute and a US affairs columnist for The National
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Countries offering golden visas
UK Innovator Founder Visa is aimed at those who can demonstrate relevant experience in business and sufficient investment funds to set up and scale up a new business in the UK. It offers permanent residence after three years.
Germany Investing or establishing a business in Germany offers you a residence permit, which eventually leads to citizenship. The investment must meet an economic need and you have to have lived in Germany for five years to become a citizen.
Italy The scheme is designed for foreign investors committed to making a significant contribution to the economy. Requires a minimum investment of €250,000 which can rise to €2 million.
Switzerland Residence Programme offers residence to applicants and their families through economic contributions. The applicant must agree to pay an annual lump sum in tax.
Canada Start-Up Visa Programme allows foreign entrepreneurs the opportunity to create a business in Canada and apply for permanent residence.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
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Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
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MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
Why are asylum seekers being housed in hotels?
The number of asylum applications in the UK has reached a new record high, driven by those illegally entering the country in small boats crossing the English Channel.
A total of 111,084 people applied for asylum in the UK in the year to June 2025, the highest number for any 12-month period since current records began in 2001.
Asylum seekers and their families can be housed in temporary accommodation while their claim is assessed.
The Home Office provides the accommodation, meaning asylum seekers cannot choose where they live.
When there is not enough housing, the Home Office can move people to hotels or large sites like former military bases.
The Bio
Favourite vegetable: “I really like the taste of the beetroot, the potatoes and the eggplant we are producing.”
Holiday destination: “I like Paris very much, it’s a city very close to my heart.”
Book: “Das Kapital, by Karl Marx. I am not a communist, but there are a lot of lessons for the capitalist system, if you let it get out of control, and humanity.”
Musician: “I like very much Fairuz, the Lebanese singer, and the other is Umm Kulthum. Fairuz is for listening to in the morning, Umm Kulthum for the night.”
4pm Al Bastakiya – Listed (TB) $150,000 (Dirt) 1,900m
4.35pm Dubai City Of Gold – Group 2 (TB) $228,000 (Turf) 2,410m
5.10pm Mahab Al Shimaal – Group 3 (TB) $228,000 (D) 1,200m
5.45pm Burj Nahaar – Group 3 (TB) $228,000 (D) 1,600m
6.20pm Jebel Hatta – Group 1 (TB) $260,000 (T) 1,800m
6.55pm Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 – Group 1 (TB) $390,000 (D) 2,000m
7.30pm Nad Al Sheba – Group 3 (TB) $228,000 (T) 1,200m
Dubai works towards better air quality by 2021
Dubai is on a mission to record good air quality for 90 per cent of the year – up from 86 per cent annually today – by 2021.
The municipality plans to have seven mobile air-monitoring stations by 2020 to capture more accurate data in hourly and daily trends of pollution.
These will be on the Palm Jumeirah, Al Qusais, Muhaisnah, Rashidiyah, Al Wasl, Al Quoz and Dubai Investment Park.
“It will allow real-time responding for emergency cases,” said Khaldoon Al Daraji, first environment safety officer at the municipality.
“We’re in a good position except for the cases that are out of our hands, such as sandstorms.
“Sandstorms are our main concern because the UAE is just a receiver.
“The hotspots are Iran, Saudi Arabia and southern Iraq, but we’re working hard with the region to reduce the cycle of sandstorm generation.”
Mr Al Daraji said monitoring as it stood covered 47 per cent of Dubai.
There are 12 fixed stations in the emirate, but Dubai also receives information from monitors belonging to other entities.
“There are 25 stations in total,” Mr Al Daraji said.
“We added new technology and equipment used for the first time for the detection of heavy metals.
“A hundred parameters can be detected but we want to expand it to make sure that the data captured can allow a baseline study in some areas to ensure they are well positioned.”
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
What sanctions would be reimposed?
Under ‘snapback’, measures imposed on Iran by the UN Security Council in six resolutions would be restored, including:
An arms embargo
A ban on uranium enrichment and reprocessing
A ban on launches and other activities with ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, as well as ballistic missile technology transfer and technical assistance
A targeted global asset freeze and travel ban on Iranian individuals and entities
Authorisation for countries to inspect Iran Air Cargo and Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines cargoes for banned goods
Cricket World Cup League Two
Teams
Oman, UAE, Namibia
Al Amerat, Muscat
Results
Oman beat UAE by five wickets
UAE beat Namibia by eight runs
Namibia beat Oman by 52 runs
UAE beat Namibia by eight wickets
Fixtures
Saturday January 11 - UAE v Oman
Sunday January 12 – Oman v Namibia
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
Priority access to new homes from participating developers
Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
Flexible payment plans from developers
Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
The biog
Favourite colour: Brown
Favourite Movie: Resident Evil
Hobbies: Painting, Cooking, Imitating Voices
Favourite food: Pizza
Trivia: Was the voice of three characters in the Emirati animation, Shaabiyat Al Cartoon
