It is season two of the Trump show – that is to say, the second half of Donald Trump's presidency. A second summit has been scheduled to take place next month between the US president and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. As numerous former aides and insiders have told us – including former communications aide Cliff Sims, the author of the soon-to-be published Team of Vipers – Mr Trump sees the White House as the greatest show on earth and is always eager to stage a spectacular.
But the second Trump-Kim summit might not be one of them. Mr Trump's meeting with Mr Kim in Singapore in June last year made the history books simply because it took place. It was the first-ever face-to-face encounter between a sitting American president and a North Korean leader. The significance of that moment cannot be recaptured – neither by Mr Trump nor any other American president.
A second Trump-Kim summit, then, will be truly noteworthy only if it produces a whole lot more than Kodak moments of a budding bromance. It would have to deliver clear, verifiable and irreversible results. In American terms, success would mean an unambiguous commitment by Pyongyang to give up its arsenal of warheads and missiles and to allow international inspectors into the country to verify progress. At the very least, Mr Kim would need to guarantee a freeze on nuclear fuel and weapons production during negotiations and to permit intrusive inspections to reassure the US he is keeping his word.
There is little reason to expect either of those outcomes. Mr Trump has not set them as pre-conditions for the second summit. And he has agreed to meet Mr Kim a second time, despite the North Korean leader’s failure to take concrete steps towards disarmament in the seven months since the Singapore summit.
Although North Korea didn't launch missiles or test any nuclear weapons last year, it has done little since the Singapore meeting to suggest any serious intent to disarm. In May, Pyongyang ostentatiously dismantled its well-used Punggye-ri nuclear test site but did not allow international experts to corroborate the effectiveness of that action. Pyongyang has also failed to provide the US with a detailed inventory of nuclear assets, complete with numbers and locations of weapons and nuclear materials that could be used to produce new ones.
More importantly, the very definition of denuclearisation continues to be understood differently by the US and North Korea. The Americans see it as North Korea entirely giving up its nuclear weapons, somewhat like South Africa, the only country in the world to have done so. But Mr Kim sees denuclearisation as a goal for the whole Korean peninsula rather than only his country. What this means is clear. North Korea wants US troops on the peninsula – 28,500 in all – to leave, thereby ending a perceived threat to its very existence. North Korean state media emphasised as much last month, with a call for “the withdrawal of the US troops holding the right to use nukes from South Korea”. Pyongyang’s tone is significant, coming right after Mr Trump started to publicly discuss the prospect of another summit with Mr Kim. At the very least, it suggests a blithe lack of concern for anything Mr Trump might ask.
The situation has fed fear among US experts on North Korea that a second Trump-Kim summit would be meaningless and possibly even dangerous to non-proliferation ambitions. Former US envoy to North Korea Joseph Yun has gone so far to suggest another summit will simply allow the North Koreans to drag out the process and the timeline and establish themselves as a de facto nuclear-armed state. "They want to wait," Mr Yun said recently, "and have as much time as possible elapse when they don't do anything significant to denuclearise, and become accepted regionally and globally as a nuclear state."
Few would dismiss the basic premise of that stark assessment. North Korea, much like Israel, China, India and Pakistan, believes its nuclear capability is both its shield and saviour – and that Mr Kim’s strength lies in the nascent nuclear threat posed by his country.
But that brings us back to a key question. Is a second summit between the US president and North Korea’s leader really necessary?
The only honest answer is “no”. There is a profound risk that Mr Trump, already obsessed with getting South Korea to pay more for the privilege of hosting US troops, could unilaterally and suddenly announce an American withdrawal. That would devalue the only card the US can play in getting North Korea to denuclearise.
But does that even matter any more when the show must go on?
The biog
Mission to Seafarers is one of the largest port-based welfare operators in the world.
It provided services to around 200 ports across 50 countries.
They also provide port chaplains to help them deliver professional welfare services.
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
Western Region Asia Cup Qualifier
Results
UAE beat Saudi Arabia by 12 runs
Kuwait beat Iran by eight wickets
Oman beat Maldives by 10 wickets
Bahrain beat Qatar by six wickets
Semi-finals
UAE v Qatar
Bahrain v Kuwait
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Coal Black Mornings
Brett Anderson
Little Brown Book Group
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
T10 Cricket League
Sharjah Cricket Stadium
December 14- 17
6pm, Opening ceremony, followed by:
Bengal Tigers v Kerala Kings
Maratha Arabians v Pakhtoons
Tickets available online at q-tickets.com/t10
Key figures in the life of the fort
Sheikh Dhiyab bin Isa (ruled 1761-1793) Built Qasr Al Hosn as a watchtower to guard over the only freshwater well on Abu Dhabi island.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Dhiyab (ruled 1793-1816) Expanded the tower into a small fort and transferred his ruling place of residence from Liwa Oasis to the fort on the island.
Sheikh Tahnoon bin Shakhbut (ruled 1818-1833) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further as Abu Dhabi grew from a small village of palm huts to a town of more than 5,000 inhabitants.
Sheikh Khalifa bin Shakhbut (ruled 1833-1845) Repaired and fortified the fort.
Sheikh Saeed bin Tahnoon (ruled 1845-1855) Turned Qasr Al Hosn into a strong two-storied structure.
Sheikh Zayed bin Khalifa (ruled 1855-1909) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further to reflect the emirate's increasing prominence.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Sultan (ruled 1928-1966) Renovated and enlarged Qasr Al Hosn, adding a decorative arch and two new villas.
Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan (ruled 1966-2004) Moved the royal residence to Al Manhal palace and kept his diwan at Qasr Al Hosn.
Sources: Jayanti Maitra, www.adach.ae
