Donald Trump has mobilised top officials in his administration to engage in shuttle diplomacy across the Middle East, bringing with them a clear message to all concerned: the US President’s plan for Gaza and the broader region will not be allowed to fail.
And so, while Mr Trump is expected to be preoccupied with matters of importance outside the Middle East between now and mid-November, he has made it clear that he expects to announce a major achievement in the next two weeks.
Having been frustrated by the Russian leadership’s intransigence over its war in Ukraine, the US President has turned his attention to Chinese President Xi Jinping with the aim of securing a trade deal with Beijing. Mr Trump, who is currently on a multi-country tour of East Asia, is scheduled to have a sit-down with Mr Xi in the coming week – a meeting that will command global interest regardless of its outcome.
However, the most significant development over the coming fortnight is likely to be a possible US military operation in Venezuela, which could upend geopolitical calculations and the oil markets.
The White House has conveyed to Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro that US military strikes targeting drug cartels allegedly associated with his country are on the table. The underlying message, according to some American media reports, appears to be that Mr Maduro’s days are numbered. According to these reports, the US military preparations under way in the Caribbean indicate an intent to end the Venezuelan President’s 12-year grip on power.
Were it to happen, the Russians would be among the biggest losers, given their strategic foothold in Latin America. The blow to Moscow would not only be geopolitical but also economic, as regime change in Venezuela could trigger a drop in global oil prices. The combined impact of tumbling oil revenue and tightening sanctions would have profoundly negative repercussions for Russia.
Iran, too, would face a setback, given that Caracas has been a partner to both Tehran and its Lebanese proxy, Hezbollah, which is accused of playing a role in “narco-terrorism”. For Tehran, the loss would also be both geopolitical and economic.
Parallel to this, American legislators and the Trump administration are ramping up efforts to corner Hezbollah and pressure other countries to designate it a terrorist organisation. This approach signals a shift from financial and security containment to cross-border encirclement. Hezbollah is now a top target, particularly in Africa and Latin America.
The Trump administration seems to calculate that both Russia and Iran are too mired in their own problems to mount a response to a possible American operation in Venezuela.
Mr Trump has been exerting diplomatic pressure on Iran’s leadership for quite some time, reiterating that the door remains open for Tehran to join the Gaza peace process. His administration’s logic is that if Iran chooses to remain outside the process, it stands to face more sanctions, internal decay and potentially military action – particularly if it escalates its nuclear weapons programme or tries to shore up the strength of its proxies.
This explains why Washington has been pressuring Lebanon’s top officials, including President Joseph Aoun and Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, to stick to their commitment to disarm Hezbollah and ensure all weapons are brought under the state’s control.
This has been evident from statements made by several US officials, including Tom Barrack, Mr Trump’s envoy to Syria. The message is clear: no circumvention of commitments will be tolerated – else, Israel won’t be restrained from using force to disarm Hezbollah. In other words, Lebanon won’t be allowed to remain as a base for Iran or for Palestinian factions seeking to derail the Gaza peace process.
Mr Trump appears to be in a hurry to announce the launch of the next phase of his Gaza plan upon returning from his East Asia tour, and possibly after fulfilling his agenda in Venezuela.
Whatever one thinks of his modus operandi, one cannot overlook the significance of the US President’s categorical rejection of Israel’s crude ploy to annex the West Bank through a preliminary Knesset bill aimed at imposing Israeli sovereignty on the Palestinian territory. But while Mr Trump’s public rhetoric matters to the Palestinian cause, he needs to go above and beyond that by legally compelling Israel to halt its creeping takeover of these lands.
Meanwhile, tough talk is needed with a Hamas leadership that continues to gamble with the lives of Gaza’s residents while selfishly bargaining for better terms in exchange for fulfilling its commitments to withdraw militarily and administratively from the enclave.
The Trump administration is pressing the guarantor states that signed the Sharm El Sheikh accord – Egypt, Qatar and Turkey – to ensure that Hamas complies with the deal. Washington is mindful that the group not be allowed to replicate the Hezbollah model in Gaza, of stalling efforts to disarm it.
This is all well and good, but the enormity of the challenges involved in getting the job done requires steadiness and focus – not capriciousness. That is why Mr Trump has set himself a difficult test. One can only hope that he passes it.
