The outbreak of the war in Gaza, following October 7, 2023, ended for Israel an era during which it enjoyed deterrence over its main security challengers.
The past two years saw a series of new phases of escalation in the war that defied all attempts at diplomacy. During this period, Israel was involved in offensives on a number of fronts, including against Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and Iran itself.
US President Donald Trump’s intervention to bring about a ceasefire in Gaza is the first decisive twist away from this direction of escalation. It puts Israel under pressure to allow at least for the recovery of the Palestinian enclave.
Few of the pressures that emerged during the course of the conflict can be taken away just yet. As Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said last week, any sabotage of the ceasefire would attract a heavy price by way of a return to violence in Gaza.
Recall how the plane carrying Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made its way to the UN General Assembly last month. Mr Netanyahu used to be able to fly over France and out into the Atlantic, but was this year forced to take an alternative route in order to avoid countries where he fears enforcement of the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant against him for his alleged war crimes.
The stand-off between the ICC and the Israeli government has seen the US impose sanctions on the court’s prosecutor and its judges. Yet, the warrant remains intractable.
As it is for the leader, so in various degrees is it also for the country. To follow the news from Israel would be to believe that only its corridor of understanding with the US matters. In fact, however, its European trade is most significant.
For years, the campaign for disinvestment from Israel attempted to get the Europeans and others to ban traded goods from the settlements. Now it faces a move at the EU level for all its tariff concessions to be put on ice as a result of the war in Gaza.
With the Europeans also representing the biggest investors in Israel, there is a significant all-round threat. European trade is so vital that a potential EU review of its agreements with Israel, considered last month, put about a third of Israel’s trade potentially at risk.
Meanwhile, the International Court of Justice has also set a high-water mark for Israel in its most recent rulings. In January 2024, the UN court found it plausible that Israel’s acts could amount to genocide and issued six provisional measures, ordering Israel to take all measures within its power to prevent genocidal acts.
Another ICJ advisory opinion, in July last year, is going through the slow process of being deliberated upon around the world. When the court ruled that Israel’s continued occupation of the Palestinian territories was unlawful and must end as quickly as possible, it was giving members of the UN clear guidance on how to reflect this in their own policies.
The ICJ also stated that Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem are illegal, and that Israel must cease all new settlement activities, evacuate existing settlers and provide reparations. Moreover, almost a dozen countries last month embraced recognition of the Palestinian state, meaning that more than three quarters of the UN members now do so.
All of this makes almost impossible any attempt by the EU and like-minded nations to resile from the pressure that has been exerted on Israel over Gaza as the ceasefire endures.
Although it can be argued now that Israel’s deterrence capabilities have been asserted once more, there is plenty of scope for more escalation of its hostilities from the current level.
But Israel’s push for more settlements and its use of the military to disrupt life in the West Bank now feed even more directly into the international legal situation it faces. For that reason, Mr Netanyahu has already warned his country to prepare for a new economic paradigm in which it is more self-reliant and thus less integrated with the global economy.
Yet Mr Trump has a considerable amount of leverage to hold the line for his peace plan. Other nations will want to create a dynamic of supporting and extending the cessation into a time when a recovery plan can be put in place.
There is also hope that after next year’s general election in Israel, a new dynamic emerges in the country’s politics wherein hardliners such as Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir are no longer in the driving seat.
It’s important that there is a shift away from the binary dynamic of war or more war towards a more complex set of factors that include restraint in return for the recovery of Gaza’s obliterated landscape. This can be welcome only in the current conditions.
While a return to violence remains a very close possibility, the path to an overall settlement will be a priority. For all those reasons, continued pressure on Israel from Europe is absolutely vital for the Trump deal to succeed.
