There’s a well-worn phrase attributed to Napoleon. He suggested that we are all ambitious and "every private soldier carries the baton of a marshal in his knapsack”. Napoleon was probably talking, as political leaders tend to do, about himself. His ambition drove him from a career as a junior officer to end up as Emperor of France.
Not every politician shares Napoleon’s talent, but quite a few share his sense of ambition. Given the difficult state of British politics and a series of failed prime ministers, it may be that several British MPs right now are particularly ambitious, fancying their chances of becoming prime minister themselves. The most obviously ambitious is Nigel Farage of Reform UK, riding high in opinion polls.
Mr Farage’s problem is that no election is necessary before 2029. A third of voters say they like Reform, but that means two thirds don’t. Has Mr Farage’s popularity peaked? Nobody knows, but Reform is now, for the first time, facing real scrutiny in the press and that will continue.
Then there’s the leader of the Conservative party, Kemi Badenoch. She also may think she is on course for Downing Street, but even some Conservative supporters seem unimpressed with her leadership so far. The Conservative party conference begins in two weeks, and Ms Badenoch’s personal poll ratings are dismal. So are those of Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
In this torrid political climate, it’s not surprising that politicians and pundits are looking for alternatives. One well-known (at least, in Britain) politician is being touted as the person who – as Napoleon suggested – may carry the baton of leadership in his rucksack or, at least, the enduring ambition to become prime minister. That’s the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham.
The Westminster chatter is that Mr Burnham wants to replace Mr Starmer as leader of the Labour party and become prime minister. Right now, that seems unlikely. But when Labour’s conference begins on Sunday, worried MPs will be discussing why their first year in government has made them so unpopular.
A sluggish economy, rising prices, misjudgments over political appointments, continuing unrest over migration, low poll ratings and Mr Starmer’s limited communication skills all add to a sense that Labour’s current leadership has not been a success. Even so, the idea that Mr Burnham, a talented man and a good communicator, in some magical way can bring about political salvation seems far-fetched.
True, Mr Starmer has made errors of judgment and been let down by others. He had to say goodbye to his deputy, Angela Rayner, this month, after she was accused of not paying the required amount of tax on house purchases. Then he had to say goodbye to his personal choice of Peter Mandelson as the British ambassador to the US. Mr Mandelson is a clever and charming operator, but he also has a history of bad judgments, including – as Mr Starmer discovered in detail – his closeness to the paedophile Jeffrey Epstein.
And so, when the Labour party gathers in Liverpool for their conference on September 28 it may prove a less than happy affair for Mr Starmer. Opinion polls bounce around but roughly show Labour and the Conservatives each polling about 10 per cent less than Reform UK.
At the conference Mr Burnham will therefore undoubtedly attract a lot of media attention. He is an excellent communicator and is regarded as having done well as Mayor of Greater Manchester. He is witty and a good performer on television. But amid the persistent British political turmoil and rumours, the reality is simple. There is no vacancy for prime minister. Even if there were a vacancy, Mr Burnham is not eligible because he is not a member of parliament.
There are rumours that he is looking for a seat in a by-election in a safe Labour constituency, but that idea is tinged with danger. Voters do not like unnecessary elections. Given the torrid state of the opinion polls, Mr Burnham might actually lose a by-election to a Reform candidate, ending his own political career in humiliation.
And as Labour and the Conservatives assemble for their conferences over the next couple of weeks, we are in for a feast of politicking, gossip and froth. Both parties will desperately try to pretend they are united and coherent, stable and supportive of their leaders.
Both will attempt to downplay Mr Farage and Reform. Barring accidents, Mr Starmer will continue as prime minister for the foreseeable future because a Labour party that unseats their sitting leader while commanding a majority with two thirds of the seats in the House of Commons doesn’t have the baton of a marshal in their knapsacks. They have a suicide pill.
And as for Mr Farage and Reform, well, one thing has begun to change. They are now being scrutinised as never before, no longer regarded merely as entertaining and interesting upstarts but as a potential party of government. Oh, and as for Napoleon, perhaps we should remember where his ambition really ended. It was not as a marshal or Emperor of France. It ended at Waterloo.
