As a crucial New York conference looms this month, with several states set to recognise Palestine. The Israeli government is lashing out in a tantrum that only underscores the strategic dead end it faces.
Rather than adapting to shifting realities after two years of war in Gaza, Israel has been acting like a spurned child, exposing just how boxed in its far-right extremist leadership has become.
From ramping up settlements and forced displacement to striking Hamas in Doha, the moves look less about strategy than desperation, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is answering the world's message not by ending the war, but by unleashing more fire.
His government recently authorised more settlement projects that, if fully built, would cut the occupied West Bank and make a Palestinian state all but impossible. At the same time, the Israeli army pressed ahead with the forced displacements of one million Palestinians from Gaza city, further escalating a cycle of devastation that has been described as genocidal.
The timing of these actions is no coincidence. They are deliberate escalations, punishments for the recognition of Palestine. In Mr Netanyahu’s mind, doubling down is the only option left. But this is the behaviour of someone clutching at control, not shaping the region, as he claims.
Latest developments
- Hamas says Israeli strike on Doha failed to kill its leaders
- 'Unhappy' Trump says attack in Qatar was not his decision
- Israel claims it used 'precise munitions', but killed Qatari security agent
- Qatar says it got warning from US only ten minutes after it started
- UAE president Sheikh Mohamed expressed 'condemnation of blatant attack'
Then came the most reckless move of all: an unprecedented strike in the Qatari capital. Residential buildings in Doha were targeted in an attempt to assassinate senior Hamas officials, including Khalil Al Hayya, who leads the group’s negotiating team, killing five Hamas members and a Qatari security officer.
The symbolism could not be more clear. While Hamas officials were debating the latest US ceasefire proposal, Israel tried to wipe them out, inside a country that has hosted key mediation efforts. The message to the US and the region is clear: Israel's extremist ministers would rather sabotage diplomacy than see a deal emerge.
For Qatar, the state that has worked tirelessly to host ceasefire talks and Israeli delegations, the attack is unforgivable. For other Arab capitals, it’s yet more proof that Mr Netanyahu cannot be trusted to respect sovereignty or ceasefire talks.
All of this comes as Israel’s long-hyped dream of normalisation with Saudi Arabia drifts further away. Riyadh has made clear that a pathway to statehood is an essential precondition. By intensifying settlement activity and lashing out against a GCC country, Israel signals the exact opposite.
Just days before the strike on Qatar, the UAE had explicitly warned that annexation of the West Bank was a red line and that Israeli actions were compromising the Abraham Accords. That was a clear signal that even existing relationships are at risk, and it shows how much Mr Netanyahu’s government fears that normalisation simply won’t happen on their current path.
By attacking Qatar, Israel has potentially all but slammed the door on any new deals.
That Israel is willing to gamble in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Iran and beyond, while also striking Qatar, shows how overstretched and erratic its strategic compass has become.
What Israel’s tantrums really reveal is the fear that international recognition of Palestine marks a point of no return.
For decades, Mr Netanyahu has relied on the argument that Palestinian statehood was a fantasy, unsupported by global consensus. That argument is almost gone.
The recognition conference organised by Saudi Arabia and France also reframes the Gaza war. It is no longer merely about hostages or Hamas. It is about Israel fighting to prevent a state that most of the world already accepts as legitimate, in what seems like a losing battle.
The irony is stark. By rejecting diplomacy and striking at negotiators, Israel makes its own strategic position worse. Hamas leaders survive and gain political capital. States grow more resistant to any normalisation at the current stage. The US, for all its unconditional military support, finds it harder to justify Israeli actions to global partners.
Mr Netanyahu is cornered. His Gaza tactics deepen international condemnation. His attacks abroad alienate potential allies. What remains is a strategy of escalation for escalation’s sake, one that delivers short-term political theatre at home but long-term strategic isolation abroad.
Today, Israel’s leadership faces a stark choice. It can continue to lash out, prolonging war in Gaza, risking new fronts, and targeting foreign capitals. Or it can face reality: Palestinian statehood is no longer an optional discussion point; it is an emerging fact on the ground.
The tantrums of the past weeks suggest Mr Netanyahu is choosing the first path. But that is a dead end. Every bomb in Gaza, every settlement in the West Bank, every strike in Doha and beyond only pushes Israel further from the regional integration it once dreamed of.
Recognition of Palestine has laid bare the limits of Israel’s strategy and the price of refusing to change course. But if Washington cannot rein it in, who can?
