Singapore's past is rich, but it is its future that the Middle East should study

Earlier this month, independent Singapore turned 60. For a small island of six million people with no oil, no minerals and little land, its journey has been nothing short of extraordinary.

In just six decades, it has gone from one of Asia’s poorest countries to one of the world’s most competitive economies. Last year, it was ranked the most competitive economy globally by IMD, as well as in the top 10 most livable cities in the continent. Its current GDP per capita of more than $80,000 (up from less than $500 at independence in 1965) places it among the highest globally.

For decades, developing countries’ policymakers admired Singapore as a model: a nation that overcame scarcity through discipline, pragmatism and relentless reinvention. But the real value of Singapore’s story today is not in the past. It is in the future. As the republic charts its path for the next decade, it is asking the question that every government in the Middle East and beyond must also ask: what must they do today to thrive tomorrow?

Singapore’s story has always been about placing the right bets at the right time. In the 1970s, it moved from low-cost manufacturing into precision engineering. In the 1980s, it doubled down on semiconductors and electronics. In the 1990s, it bet on pharmaceuticals and biomedicine, which today employ more than 24,000 people and account for 20 per cent of its manufacturing output.

These bets paid off. Today, Singapore accounts for 10 per cent of global chip output, hosts eight of the world’s top 10 pharma companies, and has five factories designated by the World Economic Forum as “global lighthouses” in advanced manufacturing.

The question now is: what’s next? The answer is clear: quantum, AI and human capital. Singapore already has more than 40 AI centres of excellence, and its Economic Development Board is actively investing in quantum computing research. But technology is only part of the equation. The government knows the ultimate bet is on people.

Last year, Singapore launched an ambitious upskilling initiative with Oracle to train 10,000 locals and students in generative AI by 2027. Amazon Web Services is training another 5,000 people in AI skills. Programmes such as SkillsFuture have become national movements – ensuring that lifelong learning is not a slogan, but a lived reality.

This is where the insight for the Middle East is sharpest: the future will be won not by who has the most resources, but by who has the most relevant skills. Singapore invests close to 1 per cent of its GDP annually in R&D and talent development. For a number of Arab countries, with much larger populations and younger demographics, the urgency is even greater. If they do not innovate, update and modernise their education systems, fast, they might end up preparing students for a world of jobs that no longer exists.

The global environment that Singapore is preparing for is turbulent: US-China rivalry, climate pressures and fragmented global trade. As a response, the city-state is reinforcing its role as an indispensable hub. It is building the world’s largest sustainable aviation fuel facility, doubling the number of carbon services firms since 2021 to more than 150, and creating new cross-border economic zones like the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone.

But the real insight lies in its mindset: Singapore assumes that disruption is the norm, not the exception. That is why it builds buffers – fiscal reserves, diversified supply chains and workforce adaptability. For a number of Arab economies, the message is clear: resilience is not a policy goal, it is a capability to be designed into every system, from finance to education to governance.

If there is one overarching insight from Singapore at 60, it is that today’s choices shape tomorrow’s survival. The bets that countries place now will determine whether they thrive in the age of AI, green growth and quantum breakthroughs. For the Middle East, that means betting big on human capital, not just infrastructure. Policymakers must start making skills and lifelong learning the cornerstone of competitiveness. Key Gulf countries have already embarked on this journey with new institutions such as the UAE’s Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence.

In parallel, the region must begin treating innovation ecosystems as deliberate national assets, not as side projects. The current approach taken by some countries is insufficient. At the core of this lies education. From the foundations of kindergarten to the frontiers of advanced research, the future will be won – or lost – inside the region’s classrooms and laboratories.

By all global ranking standards, be it research impact, innovation and IP creation, graduate recruitment, or most formal rankings, the Arab world does not yet have its own Harvard, MIT, NUS or Tsinghua. The strategy has so far been to import excellence through branch campuses and partnerships with institutions abroad. That may have worked for a while, but it might not work for the future. The region cannot compete in the innovation race without homebuilt and indigenous capabilities. The next step should be to build world-class regional universities, research centres and talent pipelines.

Finally, given the region’s resource base, water and climate challenges, it needs to link sustainability with industrial policy, as Singapore has done with carbon services and green tech. Some regional countries are acting on it, but more need to take this step.

Small states like Singapore have shown that agility, clarity and vision can overcome size and scarcity. For large parts of the Middle East, the insight is not to copy Singapore’s past, but to understand its present: a nation that never stands still, that constantly reinvents itself, and that sees skills as the fuel of future growth.

As Singapore enters its next decade, it is not betting on land, oil or sheer scale. It is betting on brains, bytes and billion-dollar growth engines powered by human capital. Key Gulf countries are starting to do the same, and the broader Arab world would do well to follow suit.