The Lebanese government’s decision last Thursday to endorse the objectives of a US-drafted plan provoked a negative response from Hezbollah and, to an extent, its ally within the Shiite community, the Amal Movement. However, the two parties, realising the risk of isolating themselves further, did not withdraw their ministers from the government of Prime Minister Nawaf Salam.
The document presented to the Lebanese cabinet by the interim US envoy to Lebanon, Tom Barrack, outlined, among other things, a process for Hezbollah’s disarmament. Prior to its Thursday session, the Salam government had ordered the Lebanese army to prepare a plan by the end of August. This plan would implement the decision taken by the state to secure a monopoly over weapons by the end of this year.
The legal basis for this process is UN Security Council Resolution 1559, which calls for the disbanding of all militias in Lebanon, Lebanese and non-Lebanese; as well as Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Lebanon war. Resolution 1701 had imposed a Hezbollah pullback to behind the Litani River, but also reaffirmed the provisions of Resolution 1559.
It still remains unclear how the Lebanese government and army will be able to implement such decisions if Hezbollah continues to refuse to surrender its weapons. Both Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Mr Salam want to avoid violence at all cost, and seek to avert a rupture with the Shiite community, a majority of which supports Hezbollah and Amal.
One aspect that has been left largely unmentioned in this context is what Israel might do if Hezbollah and Amal manage to derail the government’s plan to disarm the party. Both parties, in their recklessness, have to grasp the real dangers if the Israelis resume their military campaign in Lebanon, especially given that they enjoy unconditional US support.
Hezbollah finds itself very lonely in Lebanon today. Many people blame it for having carried the country into a war over Gaza that was unnecessary, highly destructive, and allowed Israel to reoccupy parts of Lebanon, after it had pulled its forces out of the country in 2000.
Since last November, when the ceasefire was reached, Israel has continued to hit Hezbollah sites and target party officials, or alleged officials, almost on a daily basis. The Israelis also violated the ceasefire agreement by refusing to withdraw completely from Lebanon in January, as the agreement stipulated, a position supported by the Trump administration.
Since last November, when the ceasefire was reached, Israel has continued to hit Hezbollah sites and target party officials, or alleged officials, almost daily
A proposal by Mr Barrack subsequently tied an Israeli pull-out from the Lebanese areas that it still occupies to the demilitarisation of Hezbollah. By drawing this link, the US envoy effectively placed the burden of the continued Israeli presence on the party.
The Israelis will certainly take this into consideration as they plan their strategy in Lebanon. If the Trump administration is willing to blame Hezbollah for the Israeli occupation, then this provides Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government several options for what to do next if the party continues to refuse to disarm.
Israeli forces can occupy more Lebanese territory up to the Litani River, and proceed to destroy all Hezbollah infrastructure south of that – though this process has already begun under the Lebanese army. Israel's leaders can then make a condition for withdrawal that the Lebanese government disarm Hezbollah, or even sign a peace treaty with Israel. Barring Lebanese acceptance, an expansionist Israel could even permanently annex Lebanese land.
A more ambitious plan would be for Israeli forces to occupy territory up to the Awwali River, at the level of the southern Lebanese city of Sidon, and make similar demands, or even contemplate annexation. This would empty the south of its Shiite population, while the ensuing humanitarian crisis would increase pressure on Hezbollah and the Lebanese state to comply with the Israeli government's demands.
If the Lebanese fail to do so, Israel could use its new installations in southern Lebanon to mount a long campaign to destroy Hezbollah positions and arms depots around Lebanon, using aircraft, drones, or commandos flown in by helicopter, as they did against a Hezbollah missile factory in Masyaf, Syria, last September.
Some observers feel that if the Israeli forces redeployed to southern Lebanon, this would provide a lifeline for Hezbollah, which could revive its resistance dimension by fighting the occupation. Perhaps, but the challenges are many. First, the party would be on its own in doing so, with many Lebanese wanting an end to the conflict with Israel. Second, without a regular arms supply line through Syria, the party’s capacities to sustain such a military effort would suffer.
And third, if Hezbollah tries to form a front against the Israeli presence, particularly along the Awwali, this would mean anchoring itself in non-Shiite areas, where local communities are deeply hostile to the group. Under such circumstances, Hezbollah would probably find it exceptionally difficult to mount an effective resistance struggle.
The Shiite parties, above all Hezbollah, are certainly conscious of their vulnerabilities. Moreover, Hezbollah does not appear to have a credible plan B. It is now under direct Iranian control, since its leadership cadre was decimated last year, and has been reduced to trying to defend an untenable status quo. The possibilities open to Israel make such a strategy even less likely to succeed, while the potential outcomes are deeply alarming.
Titanium Escrow profile
Started: December 2016
Founder: Ibrahim Kamalmaz
Based: UAE
Sector: Finance / legal
Size: 3 employees, pre-revenue
Stage: Early stage
Investors: Founder's friends and Family
Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
Premier League results
Saturday
Tottenham Hotspur 1 Arsenal 1
Bournemouth 0 Manchester City 1
Brighton & Hove Albion 1 Huddersfield Town 0
Burnley 1 Crystal Palace 3
Manchester United 3 Southampton 2
Wolverhampton Wanderers 2 Cardiff City 0
West Ham United 2 Newcastle United 0
Sunday
Watford 2 Leicester City 1
Fulham 1 Chelsea 2
Everton 0 Liverpool 0
Countdown to Zero exhibition will show how disease can be beaten
Countdown to Zero: Defeating Disease, an international multimedia exhibition created by the American Museum of National History in collaboration with The Carter Center, will open in Abu Dhabi a month before Reaching the Last Mile.
Opening on October 15 and running until November 15, the free exhibition opens at The Galleria mall on Al Maryah Island, and has already been seen at the Jimmy Carter Presidential Library and Museum in Atlanta, the American Museum of Natural History in New York, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
RESULTS
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UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 194hp at 5,600rpm
Torque: 275Nm from 2,000-4,000rpm
Transmission: 6-speed auto
Price: from Dh155,000
On sale: now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
How to report a beggar
Abu Dhabi – Call 999 or 8002626 (Aman Service)
Dubai – Call 800243
Sharjah – Call 065632222
Ras Al Khaimah - Call 072053372
Ajman – Call 067401616
Umm Al Quwain – Call 999
Fujairah - Call 092051100 or 092224411
Tips for job-seekers
- Do not submit your application through the Easy Apply button on LinkedIn. Employers receive between 600 and 800 replies for each job advert on the platform. If you are the right fit for a job, connect to a relevant person in the company on LinkedIn and send them a direct message.
- Make sure you are an exact fit for the job advertised. If you are an HR manager with five years’ experience in retail and the job requires a similar candidate with five years’ experience in consumer, you should apply. But if you have no experience in HR, do not apply for the job.
David Mackenzie, founder of recruitment agency Mackenzie Jones Middle East
UAE v Zimbabwe A
Results
Match 1 – UAE won by 4 wickets
Match 2 – UAE won by 5 wickets
Match 3 – UAE won by 25 runs
Match 4 – UAE won by 77 runs
Fixture
Match 5, Saturday, 9.30am start, ICC Academy, Dubai
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The Rub of Time: Bellow, Nabokov, Hitchens, Travolta, Trump and Other Pieces 1986-2016
Martin Amis,
Jonathan Cape
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
Yahya Al Ghassani's bio
Date of birth: April 18, 1998
Playing position: Winger
Clubs: 2015-2017 – Al Ahli Dubai; March-June 2018 – Paris FC; August – Al Wahda
MATCH INFO
Euro 2020 qualifier
Fixture: Liechtenstein v Italy, Tuesday, 10.45pm (UAE)
TV: Match is shown on BeIN Sports
Dhadak 2
Director: Shazia Iqbal
Starring: Siddhant Chaturvedi, Triptii Dimri
Rating: 1/5
ANALYSTS’ TOP PICKS OF SAUDI BANKS IN 2019
Analyst: Aqib Mehboob of Saudi Fransi Capital
Top pick: National Commercial Bank
Reason: It will be at the forefront of project financing for government-led projects
Analyst: Shabbir Malik of EFG-Hermes
Top pick: Al Rajhi Bank
Reason: Defensive balance sheet, well positioned in retail segment and positively geared for rising rates
Analyst: Chiradeep Ghosh of Sico Bank
Top pick: Arab National Bank
Reason: Attractive valuation and good growth potential in terms of both balance sheet and dividends
57%20Seconds
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Company%20profile
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
