Strategic neutrality is a smart approach in an uncertain world

Amid escalating tensions between global powers – the US, China and Russia – the Gulf states have adopted a policy of “strategic neutrality” as a deliberate and calculated choice.

This neutrality reflects a rational and forward-looking approach that balances national interests with the evolving geopolitical landscape. It aims to protect diplomatic and economic achievements, enhance regional stability and consolidate the Gulf’s leadership in both regional and international affairs.

This strategy emerged as a practical response to a volatile global order marked by intensifying rivalries and competing alliances. Rather than aligning with a single axis, Gulf countries have invested in a diversified network of relationships that serve their sovereign development agendas and long-term goals.

The US remains a key security partner for the Gulf, particularly in defence and arms co-operation. Yet this relationship has experienced increasing variability due to changes in US administrations and a strategic shift towards the Indo-Pacific. In parallel, China has become a principal economic partner for the region through the Belt and Road Initiative, investing in energy, infrastructure and advanced technologies such as AI and digital systems. Russia maintains influence through its energy partnership in Opec+ and its involvement in regional conflicts such as Syria and Libya.

Rather than choosing sides, Gulf states have embraced “balanced positioning” – maintaining defence and economic ties with Washington, expanding economic and technological co-operation with Beijing, and co-ordinating energy strategies with Moscow. This approach allows them to broaden their strategic space and optimise outcomes without being locked into rigid blocs or reactive alignments.

A prime example of this approach was the visit of US President Donald Trump to the Gulf in May. The visit resulted in significant investment commitments by Gulf countries in the US, totalling in the trillions of dollars. These included $600 billion from Saudi Arabia in infrastructure and smart city projects, and more than $1.4 trillion in planned UAE investments targeting clean energy, artificial intelligence and a number of advanced sectors. Bahrain also signed a major package with American companies, signalling a deepening and diversified economic partnership.

Gulf neutrality is not limited to great-power relations. It extends to regional diplomacy and influence. Gulf states have encouraged balanced foreign policies across the Arab world, notably with Syria, Jordan and a number of Arab states. This has involved economic support, diplomatic reintegration and quiet advocacy for lifting sanctions. Syria, in particular, illustrates this shift: the Gulf pushed for its return to the Arab League in 2023 while supporting humanitarian and developmental pathways.

This stabilising role is expanding beyond the Arab core. In the Red Sea and Horn of Africa, Gulf countries are investing in ports, energy corridors and conflict mediation. Their role in Yemen peace efforts and in balancing military influence along East Africa’s coastline underscores their evolution into a regional anchor of stability.

The Gulf countries’ response to the Russia-Ukraine conflict further reflects their diplomatic agility. Key among them refrained from condemning Russia, instead calling for dialogue and restraint. They also facilitated prisoner exchanges, enhancing their reputation as neutral intermediaries. Meanwhile, they continued digital partnerships with Chinese firms, demonstrating pragmatism and a commitment to sovereign decision-making, despite western pressure.

Domestically, national strategies like Saudi Vision 2030 and UAE Centennial 2071 promote economic diversification and knowledge-based growth. With more than $4 trillion in sovereign wealth assets, the Gulf enjoys financial autonomy and global investment influence. This economic depth enables the region to pursue foreign policy independently and assertively.

Security policy has evolved, too. Gulf states have diversified arms sources, bolstered local defence industries and invested in cybersecurity infrastructure. Their growing ties with Turkey and new bilateral agreements reflect a broader goal: achieving strategic autonomy in a multipolar world.

As part of this shift, several of them are exploring engagement with geopolitical blocs such as Brics and the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation. These moves signal a recalibration, though not without friction – Washington has issued tariff threats against countries deepening ties with rival centres of influence, clearly aimed at overtures by partners towards the East.

Beyond traditional diplomacy, Gulf neutrality has morphed into soft power and global engagement. The UAE has hosted major international events such as Expo 2020 and Cop28. Qatar elevated its global standing through the Fifa World Cup, while Saudi Arabia is positioning Riyadh as a hub for investment, diplomacy and cultural exchange. These initiatives reinforce the Gulf countries’ collective ambition to define – not merely follow – the contours of the global order.

As global challenges – from energy transitions to maritime security and AI governance – intensify, the GCC states face complex tests requiring strategic clarity. What sets this model apart is its adaptability. It has turned geography into leverage, neutrality into influence and diversified partnerships into engines of resilience and sustainable growth.

Ultimately, these states are charting a confident and forward-looking course through an era of shifting power dynamics. Strategic neutrality is no longer reactive – it is an active instrument of sovereignty, enabling the region to balance between competing forces while protecting its national interests and shaping its collective future.

Whether this approach endures will depend on the Gulf countries’ ability to refine it – adapting their neutrality tools to remain aligned with a world in transformation.