Optimism about Lebanon’s ability to transition itself from a vassal state to a state with stature and the capacity to govern itself is waning. As neighbouring Syria makes strides following a civil war, Lebanon is still behaving like an extension of Hezbollah’s mini state.
This is largely because Iran hasn’t allowed Hezbollah to surrender its weapons and relinquish its position as the leader of its “Resistance Axis” against Israel, thereby refusing to facilitate US President Donald Trump’s quest for a strategic shift in Lebanon.
Mr Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, hasn’t raised the issue of armed proxies in his negotiations with Iran, perhaps giving its leaders the impression that Hezbollah is a mere footnote in the nuclear talks. As for Israel, its confidence in its military capability to eliminate Hezbollah’s arsenal – even if that means causing widespread destruction in Lebanon – is growing.
It’s for this reason that Lebanon’s citizens, as well as its Arab and western partners, are growing weary of Beirut’s political class.
The country’s top three leaders – President Joseph Aoun, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri – will face severe blowback if, out of wariness of Hezbollah, they don’t force the group to place its weapons under the sole authority of the state. They will have only themselves to blame if their hesitation serves as ammunition for Israel to complete its mission of dismantling Hezbollah’s arsenal by force, which might include reoccupying southern Lebanon.
Mr Aoun genuinely believes in the oath he took to become President in January, which earned him popular applause and kindled hopes for a better future. He understands the importance of the international support he received for his presidency. His problem, however, has been to fall into the trap of starting a “dialogue” with Hezbollah and getting caught in the clutches of its stalling tactics.
By opening the door to Hezbollah’s bargaining and the various Palestinian factions’ refusal to disarm, Mr Aoun has imprisoned himself in a spiral of give-and-take, appearing weak and forfeiting much of the public’s confidence.
Mr Salam, meanwhile, seems to have retreated after making bold statements, affirming the need for Hezbollah to place all its arms under state authority, and speaking in a critical tone about Iran’s revolutionary ideology. Whether his retreat is the result of a backlash he received from Hezbollah – or his own fears about accusations that he has abandoned pro-Palestinian positions from early on in his political career – the fact is that he has remained largely silent lately.
As Mr Berri, the future of southern Lebanon rests on his shoulders. It’s time for him to challenge his own political environment and Hezbollah’s leadership, and to compel a choice between ties to Iran and loyalty to Lebanon. It’s time for him to take proactive positions that spare southern Lebanon from Israel’s aggression, and to return the decision of reconstructing the country to the Lebanese state – not leave it as a bargaining chip in Hezbollah’s hands.
The group’s secretary general, Naim Qassem, once entrusted its affairs to Mr Berri when it was needed. Today, Mr Qassem and Hezbollah’s leadership act from a deluded place of triumph, echoing Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s declarations of victory after its 12-day war with Israel, while completely ignoring Israel’s capacity to devastate both Hezbollah and Lebanon.
Hezbollah’s leadership is turning a blind eye to the potential non-renewal of the UN peacekeeping mission in Lebanon – known as Unifil – which could lead to direct confrontation between the Israeli army and the ill-equipped Lebanese army, paving the way for a possible renewed Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon.
Mr Berri’s responsibility today is, therefore, historic. It requires courage on his part to confront Hezbollah publicly, and to speak honestly to Lebanon’s Shiite community.
Everyone knows that reconstruction funding from western and Arab states won’t flow unless Hezbollah hands over its weapons to the state. Everyone also knows there is a real opportunity to secure Israel’s withdrawal from the five Lebanese hilltops it is currently occupying, and to reach a realistic solution on the Shebaa Farms thus ending the rationale for “resistance”. At that point, it would be possible to demarcate Lebanon’s land borders with both Israel and Syria.
Hezbollah’s tactics to avoid disarmament are fast turning into ammunition for Israel.
One day we hear that the group is thinking about limiting its role as an armed movement without fully disarming. Another day we hear it might hand over more weapons on the condition that Israel withdraw from the south. What remains constant, as Reuters reported citing sources within Hezbollah, is that the group “does not intend to hand over its full arsenal and will retain light weapons and anti-tank missiles to defend against any future attacks”.
The weakness of the Lebanese state is the result of an equation it has created for itself, with its top three leaders having surrendered their sovereign authority and placed it at the mercy of Hezbollah.
The talk of the trio demanding prior guarantees from US Special Envoy for Syria, Tom Barrack – including that Israel withdraw completely from southern Lebanon – is little more than a contrived excuse, a deliberate obstruction and a severing of the hand that the Trump administration is extending to help Beirut. The necessary guarantees from Israel are already baked into the border normalisation strategy, which is, in itself, the guarantee.
Let’s hope that the coming days bring reassuring surprises when Mr Barrack returns to Lebanon for talks. Let’s hope for a fundamental shift in the strategies of the three leaders, as well as in Hezbollah’s positions. But this requires serious American resolve towards Iran. Demonstrating seriousness means proving that Washington is truly determined to stop Tehran’s continued investment in its proxy doctrine, which undermines the sovereignty of independent states like Lebanon.
Whether Washington, and Beirut itself, can prevent Lebanon from becoming a victim of both Israel’s destructive ideology and Tehran’s expansionist ambitions remains to be seen.
SPECS
Nissan 370z Nismo
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Transmission: seven-speed automatic
Power: 363hp
Torque: 560Nm
Price: Dh184,500
The Settlers
Director: Louis Theroux
Starring: Daniella Weiss, Ari Abramowitz
Rating: 5/5
Mobile phone packages comparison
Company profile
Name: Infinite8
Based: Dubai
Launch year: 2017
Number of employees: 90
Sector: Online gaming industry
Funding: $1.2m from a UAE angel investor
Padmaavat
Director: Sanjay Leela Bhansali
Starring: Ranveer Singh, Deepika Padukone, Shahid Kapoor, Jim Sarbh
3.5/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
List of officials:
Referees: Chris Broad, David Boon, Jeff Crowe, Andy Pycroft, Ranjan Madugalle and Richie Richardson.
Umpires: Aleem Dar, Kumara Dharmasena, Marais Erasmus, Chris Gaffaney, Ian Gould, Richard Illingworth, Richard Kettleborough, Nigel Llong, Bruce Oxenford, Ruchira Palliyaguruge, Sundaram Ravi, Paul Reiffel, Rod Tucker, Michael Gough, Joel Wilson and Paul Wilson.
Wydad 2 Urawa 3
Wydad Nahiri 21’, Hajhouj 90'
Urawa Antonio 18’, 60’, Kashiwagi 26’
More coverage from the Future Forum
Farage on Muslim Brotherhood
Nigel Farage told Reform's annual conference that the party will proscribe the Muslim Brotherhood if he becomes Prime Minister.
"We will stop dangerous organisations with links to terrorism operating in our country," he said. "Quite why we've been so gutless about this – both Labour and Conservative – I don't know.
“All across the Middle East, countries have banned and proscribed the Muslim Brotherhood as a dangerous organisation. We will do the very same.”
It is 10 years since a ground-breaking report into the Muslim Brotherhood by Sir John Jenkins.
Among the former diplomat's findings was an assessment that “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” has “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
The prime minister at the time, David Cameron, who commissioned the report, said membership or association with the Muslim Brotherhood was a "possible indicator of extremism" but it would not be banned.
WOMAN AND CHILD
Director: Saeed Roustaee
Starring: Parinaz Izadyar, Payman Maadi
Rating: 4/5
if you go
The flights
Emirates fly direct from Dubai to Houston, Texas, where United have direct flights to Managua. Alternatively, from October, Iberia will offer connections from Madrid, which can be reached by both Etihad from Abu Dhabi and Emirates from Dubai.
The trip
Geodyssey’s (Geodyssey.co.uk) 15-night Nicaragua Odyssey visits the colonial cities of Leon and Granada, lively country villages, the lake island of Ometepe and a stunning array of landscapes, with wildlife, history, creative crafts and more. From Dh18,500 per person, based on two sharing, including transfers and tours but excluding international flights. For more information, visit visitnicaragua.us.
The%20specs
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HIJRA
Starring: Lamar Faden, Khairiah Nathmy, Nawaf Al-Dhufairy
Director: Shahad Ameen
Rating: 3/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Other acts on the Jazz Garden bill
Sharrie Williams
The American singer is hugely respected in blues circles due to her passionate vocals and songwriting. Born and raised in Michigan, Williams began recording and touring as a teenage gospel singer. Her career took off with the blues band The Wiseguys. Such was the acclaim of their live shows that they toured throughout Europe and in Africa. As a solo artist, Williams has also collaborated with the likes of the late Dizzy Gillespie, Van Morrison and Mavis Staples.
Lin Rountree
An accomplished smooth jazz artist who blends his chilled approach with R‘n’B. Trained at the Duke Ellington School of the Arts in Washington, DC, Rountree formed his own band in 2004. He has also recorded with the likes of Kem, Dwele and Conya Doss. He comes to Dubai on the back of his new single Pass The Groove, from his forthcoming 2018 album Stronger Still, which may follow his five previous solo albums in cracking the top 10 of the US jazz charts.
Anita Williams
Dubai-based singer Anita Williams will open the night with a set of covers and swing, jazz and blues standards that made her an in-demand singer across the emirate. The Irish singer has been performing in Dubai since 2008 at venues such as MusicHall and Voda Bar. Her Jazz Garden appearance is career highlight as she will use the event to perform the original song Big Blue Eyes, the single from her debut solo album, due for release soon.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
End of free parking
- paid-for parking will be rolled across Abu Dhabi island on August 18
- drivers will have three working weeks leeway before fines are issued
- areas that are currently free to park - around Sheikh Zayed Bridge, Maqta Bridge, Mussaffah Bridge and the Corniche - will now require a ticket
- villa residents will need a permit to park outside their home. One vehicle is Dh800 and a second is Dh1,200.
- The penalty for failing to pay for a ticket after 10 minutes will be Dh200
- Parking on a patch of sand will incur a fine of Dh300
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
