Starmer’s foreign policy wins give his performance a much-needed lift

If you listen to the foreign policy specialists in London on Keir Starmer’s first year as UK Prime Minister, you will get a wholly different appraisal from that dominating this week’s front pages in the country.

From the pitched battles Mr Starmer is waging in Parliament for his Plan for Change, the impression emerging of him is not good. In short, the Prime Minister has a supermajority that should guarantee his dominance on the political scene but he is instead a premier on the run.

Rebellions are proving effective in the Labour party, which is providing to be its own opposition, at least far as Parliament goes.

On the world stage, Mr Starmer has proven himself as an operator who can exploit Britain’s post-Brexit place in the world.

In an interview ahead of the first anniversary of Labour in government, Mr Starmer asserted one tangible achievement of his premiership: his administration has landed a hat-trick of trade deals in recent months.

On Monday, the most prominent of these came into effect. Tariffs from the US on British-made cars, aircraft parts, and favourable treatment for aerospace and steel have been secured. There are promises of more to come to build on that special access. No other country has yet sealed anything with Washington.

The return of US President Donald Trump was undoubtedly a test for Mr Starmer, a centre-left politician who tries to avoid the culture wars for domestic political reasons.

The trade deal combined with the state visit for Mr Trump, plus a dollop of extra defence spending, were swift antidotes to any divisions that the US President’s lieutenants had been preparing to hurl London’s way.

The hat-trick also includes a more sophisticated market access agreement with the EU that can use Britain’s largish defence industry as leverage, as the Europeans undergo rearmament.

And lastly, a free-trade agreement has been sealed with New Delhi, bringing the promise of a new alignment with the Indian economy.

Hopes have consequently risen that Mr Starmer can also seal a GCC-UK free trade agreement. The Bahraini ambassador to London, Sheikh Fawaz bin Mohammed Al Khalifa, last week told me he hoped to push for a deal by the time his country hosts the GCC Summit in December.

Mr Starmer has made a difference in these talks, as he was much more engaged than his predecessor Rishi Sunak had been.

The challenges for Mr Starmer in foreign policy are not just to keep Mr Trump on side and keep racking up the trade wins. The backbenches of the Labour party and throughout the progressive or left-wing spectrum of politics are grounds for seeding discontent over the policy on Israel.

Mr Starmer directly controls this policy and exercises an iron grip on the government position. It is an approach that goes to the foundational moments of his own rise to Labour leader. Purging the acolytes of Jeremy Corbyn, and eventually the former Labour leader himself, became the way the ex-prosecutor proved his political strength.

After almost two years of war in Gaza, there is no doubt of the mood among Labour supporters and voters in general.

There are those who argue that the Labour party now faces a huge cultural squeeze. Not only is the Reform UK party bringing Maga-style politics to the country, one poll has predicted it would end up as the biggest party in terms of seats if a new election was held now.

There is also the rise of activists on the left who combine appeals on Gaza with Corbyn-style socialism and environmental politics to create a space that Labour is losing. In Westminster, talk of Mr Corbyn and other independents combining and capturing this grassroots activation with a new party is growing.

The government continues to promote its mantra of change in every statement. A year ago, the big idea was that Labour could show it had a grip on the economy to boost investment and create a higher rate of growth.

Its early mistakes on spending mean the growth shift has not come. It is a big blow to Labour, which essentially gambled on there being a kickstart for the taking when it came to power. Reforms like welfare cuts have run aground amid those rebellions that are playing out just as the one-year anniversary looms on Saturday.

If, like Margaret Thatcher, Mr Starmer sees growth returning only three or four years down the track, he will have to withstand enormous political pressure in the meantime.

The historian and political commentator Anthony Seldon points out that there is a big issue at stake for the UK with Mr Starmer. His time in Downing Street has a sense of last chance for the political system as we know it.

Mr Seldon asks if the UK can afford to have another failed prime minister after the Conservative party's costly run. Mr Starmer must hope his touch in foreign affairs can transfer over to a defence of his performance at home fairly soon.