Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu initiated a war he knew Israel could not win on its own, wagering instead that he could get US President Donald Trump into finishing the job for him. So far, the gamble appears to have partially paid off: Mr Trump, despite his well-known aversion to entangling the US in another “forever war”, nonetheless authorised a strike that significantly degraded Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, effectively removing the prospect of nuclear weaponisation in the near and medium terms.
Tactically, it was a success for Israel. Strategically, however, the outcome remains far less certain.
The Islamic Republic’s core command-and-control architecture remains intact, at least for now. The political leadership, including supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, retains operational cohesion. Iran’s coercive institutions – the IRGC, the Ministry of Intelligence and the Basij paramilitary forces – continue to function with efficacy. Even former establishment insiders and political dissidents, such as former parliamentary speaker Mehdi Karroubi, issued calls for national unity under enemy bombardment. No high-level defections have been reported.
The Iranian public did not rise against its rulers. Faced with existential threat, most Iranians retreated into survival mode. There are signs of a limited “rally-around-the-flag” effect, as nationalist sentiment temporarily bridges the divide between establishment and society. The outlawed Mojahedin-e-Khalq, which had supported Iraq’s war against Iran in the 1980s, remains marginal. Reza Pahlavi, the exiled crown prince who publicly endorsed Israeli air strikes, may find himself in a similar position as the number of civilian casualties rises.
Equally disheartening from the perspective of Israeli strategic planners is the absence of internal insurgency. The editorial pages of The Jerusalem Post called for support to Iran’s Baloch, Kurdish and Arab minorities, long marginalised and intermittently restive, but apart from minor incidents, no large-scale armed uprisings have materialised. Iran’s centralised security state, hardened by decades of internal unrest, appears firmly in control, even in the historically volatile border regions.
This leaves Israel trapped in an open-ended conflict. The air campaign continues, but with diminishing returns. Iran has so far demonstrated strategic patience, avoiding retaliation against US military assets. This restraint reflects a calculated decision to avoid full-scale American involvement. Mr Trump’s address to the nation following the strikes was consistent with his long-standing reluctance to engage in major overseas military commitments. Regime change in Tehran does not appear to be part of Washington’s current agenda.
This posture places Mr Netanyahu and Israel in an increasingly precarious position. Without a decisive knockout blow and lacking a regional coalition to share the burden, Israel risks strategic overextension. Worse still, Iran retains escalation options. There is the risk of Tehran, under continued bombardments from Israel, internationalising the conflict by targeting energy infrastructure in the region or blocking international waterways.
It is possible that Israel, as the initiator of the war, finds itself diplomatically isolated by the resulting global outcry, while the regime it sought to dismantle claims victory through survival. The Iranian leadership, adept at constructing narratives of resistance, would present endurance as triumph, not through battlefield success but through continued existence. As with the war with Iraq from 1980 to 1988, the longer the war continues, the more it may consolidate the regime’s position.
This is the central miscalculation of Mr Netanyahu’s strategy. It was predicated on the flawed assumption that external pressure alone could produce regime change or mass revolt. It underestimated the establishment’s institutional resilience, overestimated the opposition’s capacity to mobilise and misread the limits of American political will. It also conflated tactical success – the destruction of centrifuges – with strategic transformation. But Iran is not Gaza, and the IRGC is not Hamas. The Islamic Republic has a deeper state apparatus and a long record of survival under duress.
If Israel’s objective was to delay Iran’s nuclear ambitions, it has done so, temporarily. But if the broader aim was to induce regime collapse or significant internal instability, current indicators point to failure. The greater risk now is that Israel becomes entangled in a protracted war of attrition against a regime that specialises in strategic endurance. The longer the conflict drags on without resolution, the more Mr Netanyahu’s gamble threatens to backfire, both diplomatically and domestically, as Israeli society confronts the toll of a campaign with no clear exit.
In the end, the Islamic Republic may emerge from this conflict damaged but intact. If Israel is eventually compelled, by international pressure or operational fatigue, to suspend its bombing campaign, Tehran will claim victory. And in the political logic of authoritarian regimes, mere survival in the face of overwhelming external force is often enough to do so. Mr Netanyahu may succeed in delaying Iran’s nuclear programme, but at the price of strategic stalemate – and an emboldened adversary.
Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
The bio
His favourite book - 1984 by George Orwell
His favourite quote - 'If you think education is expensive, try ignorance' by Derek Bok, Former President of Harvard
Favourite place to travel to - Peloponnese, Southern Greece
Favourite movie - The Last Emperor
Favourite personality from history - Alexander the Great
Role Model - My father, Yiannis Davos
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
RESULTS
Bantamweight: Victor Nunes (BRA) beat Azizbek Satibaldiev (KYG). Round 1 KO
Featherweight: Izzeddin Farhan (JOR) beat Ozodbek Azimov (UZB). Round 1 rear naked choke
Middleweight: Zaakir Badat (RSA) beat Ercin Sirin (TUR). Round 1 triangle choke
Featherweight: Ali Alqaisi (JOR) beat Furkatbek Yokubov (UZB). Round 1 TKO
Featherweight: Abu Muslim Alikhanov (RUS) beat Atabek Abdimitalipov (KYG). Unanimous decision
Catchweight 74kg: Mirafzal Akhtamov (UZB) beat Marcos Costa (BRA). Split decision
Welterweight: Andre Fialho (POR) beat Sang Hoon-yu (KOR). Round 1 TKO
Lightweight: John Mitchell (IRE) beat Arbi Emiev (RUS). Round 2 RSC (deep cuts)
Middleweight: Gianni Melillo (ITA) beat Mohammed Karaki (LEB)
Welterweight: Handesson Ferreira (BRA) beat Amiran Gogoladze (GEO). Unanimous decision
Flyweight (Female): Carolina Jimenez (VEN) beat Lucrezia Ria (ITA), Round 1 rear naked choke
Welterweight: Daniel Skibinski (POL) beat Acoidan Duque (ESP). Round 3 TKO
Lightweight: Martun Mezhlumyan (ARM) beat Attila Korkmaz (TUR). Unanimous decision
Bantamweight: Ray Borg (USA) beat Jesse Arnett (CAN). Unanimous decision
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HIJRA
Starring: Lamar Faden, Khairiah Nathmy, Nawaf Al-Dhufairy
Director: Shahad Ameen
Rating: 3/5
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
Why seagrass matters
- Carbon sink: Seagrass sequesters carbon up to 35X faster than tropical rainforests
- Marine nursery: Crucial habitat for juvenile fish, crustations, and invertebrates
- Biodiversity: Support species like sea turtles, dugongs, and seabirds
- Coastal protection: Reduce erosion and improve water quality
Tips for newlyweds to better manage finances
All couples are unique and have to create a financial blueprint that is most suitable for their relationship, says Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer at Century Financial. He offers his top five tips for couples to better manage their finances.
Discuss your assets and debts: When married, it’s important to understand each other’s personal financial situation. It’s necessary to know upfront what each party brings to the table, as debts and assets affect spending habits and joint loan qualifications. Discussing all aspects of their finances as a couple prevents anyone from being blindsided later.
Decide on the financial/saving goals: Spouses should independently list their top goals and share their lists with one another to shape a joint plan. Writing down clear goals will help them determine how much to save each month, how much to put aside for short-term goals, and how they will reach their long-term financial goals.
Set a budget: A budget can keep the couple be mindful of their income and expenses. With a monthly budget, couples will know exactly how much they can spend in a category each month, how much they have to work with and what spending areas need to be evaluated.
Decide who manages what: When it comes to handling finances, it’s a good idea to decide who manages what. For example, one person might take on the day-to-day bills, while the other tackles long-term investments and retirement plans.
Money date nights: Talking about money should be a healthy, ongoing conversation and couples should not wait for something to go wrong. They should set time aside every month to talk about future financial decisions and see the progress they’ve made together towards accomplishing their goals.
Omar Yabroudi's factfile
Born: October 20, 1989, Sharjah
Education: Bachelor of Science and Football, Liverpool John Moores University
2010: Accrington Stanley FC, internship
2010-2012: Crystal Palace, performance analyst with U-18 academy
2012-2015: Barnet FC, first-team performance analyst/head of recruitment
2015-2017: Nottingham Forest, head of recruitment
2018-present: Crystal Palace, player recruitment manager
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The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Why are asylum seekers being housed in hotels?
The number of asylum applications in the UK has reached a new record high, driven by those illegally entering the country in small boats crossing the English Channel.
A total of 111,084 people applied for asylum in the UK in the year to June 2025, the highest number for any 12-month period since current records began in 2001.
Asylum seekers and their families can be housed in temporary accommodation while their claim is assessed.
The Home Office provides the accommodation, meaning asylum seekers cannot choose where they live.
When there is not enough housing, the Home Office can move people to hotels or large sites like former military bases.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
