Israel’s attacks on Iran last week sent the two countries to war, marking a turning point in each of their histories.
It is Iran’s first major war since 1988, when its eight-year-long conflict with Iraq came to an end. Israel’s shock-and-awe campaign has targeted not just Iran’s nuclear programme, the main casus belli, but also the political and military leadership of the Islamic Republic. Israeli and American leaders, meanwhile, have engaged in doublespeak on the question of whether they seek regime change.
Regardless of their war aims, the possibility of a seismic political shift has been starkly posed in Iran. This is particular so because of the many years of economic hardship and social upheaval that have exerted tremendous pressures on the current establishment. Many are now wondering about the political consequences of the war for the Islamic Republic and the rule of its 86-year-old leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
In trying to understand the present moment, historians inevitably turn to the past. Iran’s centuries-long history provides many examples of upheavals and regime change. Which historical moments are most suitable to give us a sense of where the country is at today?
One inescapable point of comparison is the 1979 revolution, which replaced Mohammad Reza Pahlavi – known more widely then as the Shah of Iran – with the current establishment. But as the Islamic Republic faces one of the biggest challenges in its 46-year history, what is the likelihood that Iranians will once again rise up for the reasons noted above?
Any comparison between 2025 and 1979 quickly shows why a similar revolution is much less likely to happen today.
In 1979, the Shah’s opponents had an overarching leader to rally behind. Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini pulled together a diverse coalition of nationalists, Marxists and Islamists to support him as an alternative. Although he was a dyed-in-wool Islamist, Khomeini was careful not to dispel other groups, particularly in the early days.
Any comparison between 2025 and 1979 quickly shows why a radical change in the country’s power structure is much less likely today
He had in his team more veterans from within Iran’s nationalist movement than fellow clerics. Khomeini also used the broad network of mosques inside the country to organise. Other opposition groups also had extensive and disciplined networks across Iran.
By contrast, the opponents of the Islamic Republic today are bitterly divided, lack networks inside the country and don’t have any credible organisations either inside or abroad.
Reza Pahlavi, the 64-year-old son of the Shah who is currently living in exile, has attempted to pitch himself as the singular leader of the opposition. But he lacks broad-based support or organisation, without either of which it is impossible to stage an uprising that seriously challenges the Islamic Republic. Even a spontaneous movement – such as the ones in 2017-19 and 2022-23 – is unlikely to go far without organised leadership.
Rather than change being imposed from the outside, it is much likelier to happen from within the establishment.
Again, Iranian history has a number of examples of military figures taking up the reins of their country during moments of acute crises. The best-known example in modern times is the one mounted by Mr Pahlavi’s eponymous grandfather – and the father of the deposed Shah – who rose from a lowly military position to lead a British-backed coup in 1921.
Reza Pahlavi appointed himself prime minister and, after considering the idea of establishing a republic, abolished the Qajar dynasty in 1925 and created a new monarchical dynasty. The Qajars, who had run Iran since the late 1700s, had become enfeebled by the early 20th century creating the conditions necessary for change.
It is conceivable that figures from inside the Islamic Republic's establishment will similarly rise to assume power. It is also possible that instead of a typical military coup, a broadly representative committee consisting of politicians and military figures takes over.
Iran also experienced regime change in 1941 and 1953, both of which took place with extensive support from foreign powers. In 1941, the Soviet Union and Britain invaded the country during the Second World War before deposing Reza Pahlavi and replacing him with his son, the Shah. Twelve years later, the CIA and MI6 helped bring down the democratically elected government of Mohammad Mosaddegh and reinstated the Shah, who had been reduced to a mere figurehead, as the country's ruler.
It’s worth pointing out that, while the British aided Reza Pahlavi during the 1921 coup, the support had been limited and the operation very much led from within. By contrast, the 1953 coup was planned and carried out by Washington and London, albeit with local support from Iran’s armed forces.
It’s extremely unlikely that the US and its allies can carry out a similar operation today, since they lack the level of political penetration the West had in 1953. The US remains the only foreign power capable of mounting a ground invasion of Iran, but the American public has little appetite for such an intervention – particularly after the misguided invasion and occupation of Iraq two decades earlier.
While it is possible for some to imagine the US and Israel deposing Mr Khamenei, this scenario also remains unlikely. For without boots on the ground, any transition process will be chaotic, unwieldy and perhaps even met with resistance from several quarters. There is also little guarantee that a more friendly government will emerge from this process.
By comparing the current moment to what happened in 1921, 1941, 1953 and 1979, we can conclude that, if there was to be a change, something akin to the 1921 coup is perhaps the most relevant model. A primarily Iranian-led power usurpation is more likely than a popular revolution (1979), a foreign-organised coup (1953) or change as a consequence of foreign occupation (1941).
It remains to be seen whether there are elements inside Iran's armed forces or political establishment who would make such an ambitious dash for power, given all the risks that it will involve.
It certainly appears that the Islamic Republic is on the cusp of change, given the many pressures emanating from within and beyond Iran’s boundaries today. Time will tell what that change actually entails.
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
ACC%20T20%20Women%E2%80%99s%20Championship
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Astroworld
Travis Scott
Grand Hustle/Epic/Cactus Jack
Important questions to consider
1. Where on the plane does my pet travel?
There are different types of travel available for pets:
- Manifest cargo
- Excess luggage in the hold
- Excess luggage in the cabin
Each option is safe. The feasibility of each option is based on the size and breed of your pet, the airline they are traveling on and country they are travelling to.
2. What is the difference between my pet traveling as manifest cargo or as excess luggage?
If traveling as manifest cargo, your pet is traveling in the front hold of the plane and can travel with or without you being on the same plane. The cost of your pets travel is based on volumetric weight, in other words, the size of their travel crate.
If traveling as excess luggage, your pet will be in the rear hold of the plane and must be traveling under the ticket of a human passenger. The cost of your pets travel is based on the actual (combined) weight of your pet in their crate.
3. What happens when my pet arrives in the country they are traveling to?
As soon as the flight arrives, your pet will be taken from the plane straight to the airport terminal.
If your pet is traveling as excess luggage, they will taken to the oversized luggage area in the arrival hall. Once you clear passport control, you will be able to collect them at the same time as your normal luggage. As you exit the airport via the ‘something to declare’ customs channel you will be asked to present your pets travel paperwork to the customs official and / or the vet on duty.
If your pet is traveling as manifest cargo, they will be taken to the Animal Reception Centre. There, their documentation will be reviewed by the staff of the ARC to ensure all is in order. At the same time, relevant customs formalities will be completed by staff based at the arriving airport.
4. How long does the travel paperwork and other travel preparations take?
This depends entirely on the location that your pet is traveling to. Your pet relocation compnay will provide you with an accurate timeline of how long the relevant preparations will take and at what point in the process the various steps must be taken.
In some cases they can get your pet ‘travel ready’ in a few days. In others it can be up to six months or more.
5. What vaccinations does my pet need to travel?
Regardless of where your pet is traveling, they will need certain vaccinations. The exact vaccinations they need are entirely dependent on the location they are traveling to. The one vaccination that is mandatory for every country your pet may travel to is a rabies vaccination.
Other vaccinations may also be necessary. These will be advised to you as relevant. In every situation, it is essential to keep your vaccinations current and to not miss a due date, even by one day. To do so could severely hinder your pets travel plans.
Source: Pawsome Pets UAE
Pharaoh's curse
British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.
Honeymoonish
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More on Quran memorisation:
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
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Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
The specs: 2018 Chevrolet Trailblazer
Price, base / as tested Dh99,000 / Dh132,000
Engine 3.6L V6
Transmission: Six-speed automatic
Power 275hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque 350Nm @ 3,700rpm
Fuel economy combined 12.2L / 100km
Try out the test yourself
Q1 Suppose you had $100 in a savings account and the interest rate was 2 per cent per year. After five years, how much do you think you would have in the account if you left the money to grow?
a) More than $102
b) Exactly $102
c) Less than $102
d) Do not know
e) Refuse to answer
Q2 Imagine that the interest rate on your savings account was 1 per cent per year and inflation was 2 per cent per year. After one year, how much would you be able to buy with the money in this account?
a) More than today
b) Exactly the same as today
c) Less than today
d) Do not know
e) Refuse to answer
Q4 Do you think that the following statement is true or false? “Buying a single company stock usually provides a safer return than a stock mutual fund.”
a) True
b) False
d) Do not know
e) Refuse to answer
The “Big Three” financial literacy questions were created by Professors Annamaria Lusardi of the George Washington School of Business and Olivia Mitchell, of the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.
Answers: Q1 More than $102 (compound interest). Q2 Less than today (inflation). Q3 False (diversification).
The Perfect Couple
Starring: Nicole Kidman, Liev Schreiber, Jack Reynor
Creator: Jenna Lamia
Rating: 3/5
Explainer: Tanween Design Programme
Non-profit arts studio Tashkeel launched this annual initiative with the intention of supporting budding designers in the UAE. This year, three talents were chosen from hundreds of applicants to be a part of the sixth creative development programme. These are architect Abdulla Al Mulla, interior designer Lana El Samman and graphic designer Yara Habib.
The trio have been guided by experts from the industry over the course of nine months, as they developed their own products that merge their unique styles with traditional elements of Emirati design. This includes laboratory sessions, experimental and collaborative practice, investigation of new business models and evaluation.
It is led by British contemporary design project specialist Helen Voce and mentor Kevin Badni, and offers participants access to experts from across the world, including the likes of UK designer Gareth Neal and multidisciplinary designer and entrepreneur, Sheikh Salem Al Qassimi.
The final pieces are being revealed in a worldwide limited-edition release on the first day of Downtown Designs at Dubai Design Week 2019. Tashkeel will be at stand E31 at the exhibition.
Lisa Ball-Lechgar, deputy director of Tashkeel, said: “The diversity and calibre of the applicants this year … is reflective of the dynamic change that the UAE art and design industry is witnessing, with young creators resolute in making their bold design ideas a reality.”
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
