A sixth round of US-Iran nuclear talks was supposed to take place in Oman last Sunday, but was cancelled owing to the surprise Israeli attack on Iranian targets that began two days earlier.
The collapse of these negotiations comes at a significant moment. In a few weeks, it will have been 10 years since the signing of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
Notwithstanding its flaws, the deal worked. In 2018, during his first term in office, US President Donald Trump withdrew his country from the JCPOA. Mr Trump is now paying the price for this decision, inheriting a conflict in the Middle East that he could have prevented. His country also faces the possibility of being sucked into another regional war, something that his supporters were promised a second Trump administration would avoid.
The 2015 nuclear agreement, which was signed in Vienna after four years of negotiations, was a historic breakthrough for US-Iran relations. Despite warnings that it was an imperfect deal, it provided a potential opening for deeper engagement in the future.
Mr Trump sought to undo the diplomatic legacy of the preceding US administration, arguing that the JCPOA failed to prevent the development of Tehran’s ballistic missile programme and end its support for armed proxies across the Middle East. As of this year, Iran developed a ballistic missile force that has hit Israel numerous times, demonstrating the futility of Mr Trump’s objectives back in 2018.
Mr Trump wanted a grand bargain with Iran. The irony is such a bargain was on the table before – but was rejected. Iran itself proposed a deal in 2003, and it was Mr Trump’s Republican predecessor, George W Bush, who failed to pursue it. That failure led to Iran waging a low-intensity proxy war against the US in Iraq.
From Tehran’s perspective, particularly that of its hardliners, the US – from Mr Bush to Mr Trump – is fickle and cannot be trusted.
Following the September 11 attacks on US soil in 2001, Mr Bush included Iran, along with Iraq and North Korea, in what he called the “axis of evil”. In 2003, US forces were at Iran’s border, having led the invasion of Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. It was at this point that Iran offered the US a comprehensive negotiation proposal, with Tehran expressing a willingness to open its nuclear programme to inspections, work as a partner to stabilise Iraq, and co-operate against fighting Al Qaeda. Essentially it offered Washington then what Mr Trump would have asked Iran for on Sunday were it not for Israel’s attack.
The response to the 2003 offer from the office of then-vice president Dick Cheney allegedly was: “We don’t talk to evil.”
When Washington refused to engage with it through diplomacy and collaboration in 2003, Iran decided to undermine American interests in the region. One tool at Tehran’s disposal was the variety of Iraqi armed groups targeting US forces. Thus, the US had to tackle two distinct foes during Iraq’s insurgency: Al Qaeda in Iraq, which later morphed into ISIS, and a set of Iran-backed armed proxies.
Several of the militias active in Iraq today grew out of Iran’s low-intensity proxy war against US forces. Tehran’s rationale was that the Bush administration sought regime change and was considering bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities.
The lesson from 2003 is that when the US failed to communicate with Iran through dialogue and diplomacy, Tehran chose to respond through its many armed proxies in the region. Despite some of these proxies having been considerably weakened, activating them could still be an option for Iran today, just as it was in 2003, along with its ability to close the Strait of Hormuz.
Mr Trump enabled Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s attack. According to the Washington-based Centre for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, most estimates suggest that Israel has about 90 plutonium-based nuclear warheads.
This arsenal serves as a deterrent to any hypothetical scenario in which Iran seeks to pursue a nuclear weapon. Israel’s unstated objection to the Trump deal was that it left Iran’s nuclear infrastructure intact, giving Tehran the potential to challenge Israel’s unofficial nuclear monopoly in the region.
The 2015 deal was the first opportunity for US-Iran engagement that could have provided some stability to an unstable Middle East had it lasted longer. Today, Tehran is the first and only Middle Eastern state in the 21st century to strike Israel directly, launching a huge salvo of ballistic missiles from its territory, not once, but three times since October 7, 2023.
In April last year, Iran launched 300 drones as well as ballistic and cruise missiles towards Israel, some hitting the Nevatim air base that houses squadrons of US-made F-35 fighters. Last October, it fired 200 ballistic missiles towards Israel, some targeting the same military base and others allegedly coming close to the headquarters of Mossad, Israel’s spy agency.
As of last Friday, Iran continues to fire ballistic missiles at Israel in retaliation to its surprise first strike.
Israel, on the other hand, uses American aircraft and naval vessels to intercept projectiles, sometimes even needing direct US support. That has not only made Washington a party to an undeclared war with Iran since October 2023, but it has also made American forces vulnerable to retaliation.
The war that began in October 2023 has the potential to become America’s third conflict in the Gulf and Middle East since the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. The anniversary of that conflict is approaching in August, marking 35 years of US involvement in the region. Without a return to diplomacy and de-escalation, Mr Trump may find himself embroiled in another direct conflagration in the Middle East.
BIGGEST CYBER SECURITY INCIDENTS IN RECENT TIMES
SolarWinds supply chain attack: Came to light in December 2020 but had taken root for several months, compromising major tech companies, governments and its entities
Microsoft Exchange server exploitation: March 2021; attackers used a vulnerability to steal emails
Kaseya attack: July 2021; ransomware hit perpetrated REvil, resulting in severe downtime for more than 1,000 companies
Log4j breach: December 2021; attackers exploited the Java-written code to inflitrate businesses and governments
The%20specs
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Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
The five pillars of Islam
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BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
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The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
Read more about the coronavirus
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
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Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
The five pillars of Islam
Zayed Sustainability Prize
The years Ramadan fell in May
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
The five pillars of Islam
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
From Zero
Artist: Linkin Park
Label: Warner Records
Number of tracks: 11
Rating: 4/5
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Zayed Sustainability Prize
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
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How to vote
Canadians living in the UAE can register to vote online and be added to the International Register of Electors.
They'll then be sent a special ballot voting kit by mail either to their address, the Consulate General of Canada to the UAE in Dubai or The Embassy of Canada in Abu Dhabi
Registered voters mark the ballot with their choice and must send it back by 6pm Eastern time on October 21 (2am next Friday)
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Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Concrete and Gold
Foo Fighters
RCA records
BIO
Favourite holiday destination: Turkey - because the government look after animals so well there.
Favourite film: I love scary movies. I have so many favourites but The Ring stands out.
Favourite book: The Lord of the Rings. I didn’t like the movies but I loved the books.
Favourite colour: Black.
Favourite music: Hard rock. I actually also perform as a rock DJ in Dubai.
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
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The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors
Power: Combined output 920hp
Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic
Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km
On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025
Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Quick pearls of wisdom
Focus on gratitude: And do so deeply, he says. “Think of one to three things a day that you’re grateful for. It needs to be specific, too, don’t just say ‘air.’ Really think about it. If you’re grateful for, say, what your parents have done for you, that will motivate you to do more for the world.”
Know how to fight: Shetty married his wife, Radhi, three years ago (he met her in a meditation class before he went off and became a monk). He says they’ve had to learn to respect each other’s “fighting styles” – he’s a talk it-out-immediately person, while she needs space to think. “When you’re having an argument, remember, it’s not you against each other. It’s both of you against the problem. When you win, they lose. If you’re on a team you have to win together.”
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-finals, second leg:
Liverpool (0) v Barcelona (3), Tuesday, 11pm UAE
Game is on BeIN Sports
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Dubai World Cup factbox
Most wins by a trainer: Godolphin’s Saeed bin Suroor(9)
Most wins by a jockey: Jerry Bailey(4)
Most wins by an owner: Godolphin(9)
Most wins by a horse: Godolphin’s Thunder Snow(2)
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Votes
Total votes: 1.8 million
Ashraf Ghani: 923,592 votes
Abdullah Abdullah: 720,841 votes
UAE SQUAD
Khalid Essa, Ali Khaseif, Fahad Al Dhanhani, Adel Al Hosani, Bandar Al Ahbabi, Mohammad Barghash, Salem Rashid, Khalifa Al Hammadi, Shaheen Abdulrahman, Hassan Al Mahrami, Walid Abbas, Mahmoud Khamis, Yousef Jaber, Majed Sorour, Majed Hassan, Ali Salmeen, Abdullah Ramadan, Abdullah Al Naqbi, Khalil Al Hammadi, Fabio De Lima, Khalfan Mubarak, Tahnoon Al Zaabi, Ali Saleh, Caio Canedo, Ali Mabkhout, Sebastian Tagliabue, Zayed Al Ameri
About Takalam
Date started: early 2020
Founders: Khawla Hammad and Inas Abu Shashieh
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: HealthTech and wellness
Number of staff: 4
Funding to date: Bootstrapped
More from Janine di Giovanni
How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
- Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
- Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
- Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
- Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
- Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
- The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
- Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269
*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year
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Four-day collections of TOH
Day Indian Rs (Dh)
Thursday 500.75 million (25.23m)
Friday 280.25m (14.12m)
Saturday 220.75m (11.21m)
Sunday 170.25m (8.58m)
Total 1.19bn (59.15m)
(Figures in millions, approximate)
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
