Here’s a prediction. Future historians will look back on just 16 words and reflect on the extraordinary self-harm they caused the UK in the first quarter of the 21st century. Those 16 words are: “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?” That was the question asked in 2016 of UK voters over the age of 18 who took part in their country’s supposedly “advisory” Brexit referendum.
History teaches that future generations sometimes look back on their ancestors and wonder: “What on Earth were they thinking?” Brexit already fits into that category. Vote Leave narrowly won the referendum and the UK left the EU. But far from ending arguments about the country’s relationship with Europe, these arguments have never gone away. They have intensified in almost a decade of recriminations, regret, rethinks and now renegotiations.
One result is the miserable state of the UK’s Conservative party that brought its people Brexit. They are in deep trouble, intellectually adrift, led (for now at least) by the hapless Kemi Badenoch, bereft of ideas, lacking real talent and facing challenges from the right and Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party. It would of course be foolish to underestimate the survival instincts of the party of Benjamin Disraeli, Winston Churchill and Margaret Thatcher. The Tories will probably recover eventually.
But Brexit won’t. Brexit is already brain dead, clinging on life support.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government is reluctant to bury it, at least for now. But they appear to be gradually changing UK-EU relations towards something that looks like Brexit in name only, with their new deal to reduce trade friction and costly border bureaucracy. This will eventually enable UK goods and holidaymakers to pass more rapidly through European seaports and airports. These and other changes have been welcomed by supermarkets, retailers, exporters and meat and food processors across the country, plus many individual businesses and trade organisations, and by the public.
The deal is of course opposed by the people who helped bring the country the Brexit fiasco – Ms Badenoch and Mr Farage. They claim the new deal is a “betrayal” of the referendum result. But since the referendum was a supposedly “advisory” vote on that vague 16-word question, the Brexit bunch are left fighting yesterday’s political battles.
It is unlikely the UK ever achieve as good a deal with the EU as that negotiated by Thatcher. Even so, the world has changed unimaginably since the 2016 vote
It is true that since 1945, UK politicians have constantly argued and dithered about their country’s relationship with Europe. After the Second World War, as former US secretary of state Dean Acheson memorably put it, “Great Britain has lost an Empire and not yet found a role”. Mr Acheson believed the obvious role meant the UK joining with other Europeans.
US President Donald Trump’s “America First” policies may confirm that observation and accelerate that process in future. Even so, the UK has often been reluctant to accept that its islands are tied by geography and history to the European continent just 40 kilometres from its shores. In 1952, France and Germany created the European Coal and Steel Community, followed in 1957 by the European Economic Community (later the EU). The UK did not get on board until 1973. Later, Mrs Thatcher negotiated hugely beneficial terms for the UK in the EU, but Brexit upended all that and upended her Conservative party too.
Former prime minister Boris Johnson ruthlessly got rid of Conservative MPs who opposed the UK’s exit from the EU. The resulting Brexit deal was a mess of trade restrictions, border checks, bureaucracy, long queues of lorries and forlorn UK holidaymakers delayed at EU passport control. This debacle explains why the Conservatives are currently enduring their fourth leader in three years under Ms Badenoch. Astonishingly, the Tories are now so unpopular in opinion polls that they lie fourth behind the governing Labour party, the Liberal Democrats and the upstart Reform UK.
Three things are now absolutely clear.
First, the UK’s people overwhelmingly think Brexit was a mistake. Second, while few politicians dare speak about “overturning” Brexit, the “reset” announced by Mr Starmer is the beginning of the end for the Brexit delusion. Third – unfortunately – it is unlikely that the UK will ever achieve in future as good a deal with the EU as that negotiated by Mrs Thatcher in the 1980s.
Even so, the world has changed unimaginably since the 2016 vote – changed by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Mr Trump’s unpredictability and the constant threats about trade wars and tariffs. More positively, many European governments understand the value of the UK’s defence industry, its military and its support for a secure Europe. Many people in the UK also now more clearly understand their common European home and the need to work together with their closest neighbours, friends and trading partners.
Recent YouGov polling reflects how the public mood has changed. Almost two thirds (62 per cent) of Britons think Brexit has failed. More than half (53 per cent) say they would vote to rejoin the EU. Unfortunately, rejoining doesn’t appear to be an option. And if the UK’s people ever vote in any future referendum, it needs to be more carefully constructed than that vaguely phrased sentence of 16 ill-defined words that got the country into the Brexit mess in the first place.
Analysis
Maros Sefcovic is juggling multiple international trade agreement files, but his message was clear when he spoke to The National on Wednesday.
The EU-UAE bilateral trade deal will be finalised soon, he said. It is in everyone’s interests to do so. Both sides want to move quickly and are in alignment. He said the UAE is a very important partner for the EU. It’s full speed ahead - and with some lofty ambitions - on the road to a free trade agreement.
We also talked about US-EU tariffs. He answered that both sides need to talk more and more often, but he is prepared to defend Europe's position and said diplomacy should be a guiding principle through the current moment.
HOW TO WATCH
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Six large-scale objects on show
- Concrete wall and windows from the now demolished Robin Hood Gardens housing estate in Poplar
- The 17th Century Agra Colonnade, from the bathhouse of the fort of Agra in India
- A stagecloth for The Ballet Russes that is 10m high – the largest Picasso in the world
- Frank Lloyd Wright’s 1930s Kaufmann Office
- A full-scale Frankfurt Kitchen designed by Margarete Schütte-Lihotzky, which transformed kitchen design in the 20th century
- Torrijos Palace dome
RESULTS
1.45pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,400m
Winner: Dirilis Ertugrul, Fabrice Veron (jockey), Ismail Mohammed (trainer)
2.15pm: Handicap Dh90,000 1,400m
Winner: Kidd Malibu, Sandro Paiva, Musabah Al Muhairi
2.45pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,000m
Winner: Raakezz, Tadhg O’Shea, Nicholas Bachalard
3.15pm: Handicap Dh105,000 1,200m
Winner: Au Couer, Sean Kirrane, Satish Seemar
3.45pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,600m
Winner: Rayig, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson
4.15pm: Handicap Dh105,000 1,600m
Winner: Chiefdom, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer
4.45pm: Handicap Dh80,000 1,800m
Winner: King’s Shadow, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
More coverage from the Future Forum
25%20Days%20to%20Aden
%3Cp%3EAuthor%3A%20Michael%20Knights%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EPages%3A%20256%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAvailable%3A%20January%2026%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
WOMAN AND CHILD
Director: Saeed Roustaee
Starring: Parinaz Izadyar, Payman Maadi
Rating: 4/5
RESULTS
Argentina 4 Haiti 0
Peru 2 Scotland 0
Panama 0 Northern Ireland 0
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
Price, base / as tested: Dh182,178
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Power: 350hp @ 7,400rpm
Torque: 374Nm @ 5,200rpm
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 10.5L / 100km
LILO & STITCH
Starring: Sydney Elizebeth Agudong, Maia Kealoha, Chris Sanders
Director: Dean Fleischer Camp
Rating: 4.5/5
The Bio
Favourite Emirati dish: I have so many because it has a lot of herbs and vegetables. Harees (oats with chicken) is one of them
Favourite place to go to: Dubai Mall because it has lots of sports shops.
Her motivation: My performance because I know that whatever I do, if I put the effort in, I’ll get results
During her free time: I like to drink coffee - a latte no sugar and no flavours. I do not like cold drinks
Pet peeve: That with every meal they give you a fries and Pepsi. That is so unhealthy
Advice to anyone who wants to be an ironman: Go for the goal. If you are consistent, you will get there. With the first one, it might not be what they want but they should start and just do it
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
WORLD CUP SQUAD
Dimuth Karunaratne (Captain), Angelo Mathews, Avishka Fernando, Lahiru Thirimanne, Kusal Mendis (wk), Kusal Perera (wk), Dhananjaya de Silva, Thisara Perera, Isuru Udana, Jeffrey Vandersay, Jeevan Mendis, Milinda Siriwardana, Lasith Malinga, Suranga Lakmal, Nuwan Pradeep
THE DEALS
Hamilton $60m x 2 = $120m
Vettel $45m x 2 = $90m
Ricciardo $35m x 2 = $70m
Verstappen $55m x 3 = $165m
Leclerc $20m x 2 = $40m
TOTAL $485m
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre twin-turbo flat-six
Power: 480hp at 6,500rpm
Torque: 570Nm from 2,300-5,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch auto
Fuel consumption: 10.4L/100km
Price: from Dh547,600
On sale: now
MATCH INFO
Day 1 at Mount Maunganui
England 241-4
Denly 74, Stokes 67 not out, De Grandhomme 2-28
New Zealand
Yet to bat
Dolittle
Director: Stephen Gaghan
Stars: Robert Downey Jr, Michael Sheen
One-and-a-half out of five stars
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
UAE tour of the Netherlands
UAE squad: Rohan Mustafa (captain), Shaiman Anwar, Ghulam Shabber, Mohammed Qasim, Rameez Shahzad, Mohammed Usman, Adnan Mufti, Chirag Suri, Ahmed Raza, Imran Haider, Mohammed Naveed, Amjad Javed, Zahoor Khan, Qadeer Ahmed
Fixtures: Monday, first 50-over match; Wednesday, second 50-over match; Thursday, third 50-over match
OPINIONS ON PALESTINE & ISRAEL
PREMIER LEAGUE RESULTS
Bournemouth 1 Manchester City 2
Watford 0 Brighton and Hove Albion 0
Newcastle United 3 West Ham United 0
Huddersfield Town 0 Southampton 0
Crystal Palace 0 Swansea City 2
Manchester United 2 Leicester City 0
West Bromwich Albion 1 Stoke City 1
Chelsea 2 Everton 0
Tottenham Hotspur 1 Burnley 1
Liverpool 4 Arsenal 0
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Tips to keep your car cool
- Place a sun reflector in your windshield when not driving
- Park in shaded or covered areas
- Add tint to windows
- Wrap your car to change the exterior colour
- Pick light interiors - choose colours such as beige and cream for seats and dashboard furniture
- Avoid leather interiors as these absorb more heat
Company%C2%A0profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ETuhoon%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EYear%20started%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJune%202021%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECo-founders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFares%20Ghandour%2C%20Dr%20Naif%20Almutawa%2C%20Aymane%20Sennoussi%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERiyadh%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Ehealth%20care%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESize%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E15%20employees%2C%20%24250%2C000%20in%20revenue%0D%3Cbr%3EI%3Cstrong%3Envestment%20stage%3A%20s%3C%2Fstrong%3Eeed%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EWamda%20Capital%2C%20Nuwa%20Capital%2C%20angel%20investors%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Babumoshai Bandookbaaz
Director: Kushan Nandy
Starring: Nawazuddin Siddiqui, Bidita Bag, Jatin Goswami
Three stars
