Blackouts in Spain and Portugal may show us why energy transition isn't black and white

For about 18 hours this week, the world got a glimpse of what life could be like without the luxury of modern conveniences and technology that rely on electricity. Monday’s power cut across Spain, Portugal and – for a brief time – parts of France left tens of millions without it until Tuesday morning, when services largely resumed. While the scale of this disruption isn’t quite in the top 10 in global terms, it is the largest yet to affect nations in Western Europe. In some regions, trains were evacuated, traffic lights were out, surgeries were cancelled, and shops and restaurants were plunged into darkness. The internet was also affected, and mobile phone networks as well as ATMs were reportedly down in Spain. As a consequence, there was a complete information blackout for a period. Batteries, powerbanks and candles were invaluable to get through the night. Reading books or conversing with those around you offered the easiest ways to pass the time enjoyably. Tinned food was back on the menu. It might have seemed funny and perhaps even nostalgic for many – a nice respite from the grind. But, despite several ongoing investigations, the power cut remains unexplained. It could be a sign of worse things to come if no cause can be properly identified and resolved, or that if there isn’t a resolve to ensure that such moments must remain rare. Sadly, I’m thinking of Lebanon and Iraq as examples for Europe to not emulate. Indeed, the biggest power cuts in history have largely been confined to what we now call the Global South and what we previously referred to as the Third World. That’s why many emerging countries, including in this region, have been working tirelessly and over decades to match the access to safe, reliable energy the so-called First World has. But there is a lesson to be learnt here. In the EU, the shift in terms of the power mix this century has been nothing short of astonishing. Solar and wind have emerged as the biggest sources of electricity generation. In the long term, the rise of renewable sources of energy at the expense of fossil fuel use is only a good thing as the international community collectively works to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and their impact on the planet. In the short term, however, like with any new technology, their increasing prominence introduces a new unpredictability for supply and prices. Clearly, the world must now factor in the element of surprise. Whatever the reason for this week’s power cut on the Iberian Peninsula – climate change, or cyber attack, accident or negligence – such a thing strikes at the very fabric of a society. And what begins as an uncharacteristic conflict or crisis – spurring only brief bouts of frustration, fear, pressure – could become a doorway to a slippery slope. This is one where denial or apathy reigns supreme and problems end up becoming chronic, with intermittent power cuts becoming a part of the national fabric and the focus of gallows humour. A rising frequency of extreme weather events have already made them more likely, but a lack of appropriate investment levels across all types of energy sources, including in hydrocarbons, and blinkered policies have added to the vulnerability of hitherto reliable markets across the US, the UK and Europe. In comparison, balanced policies and higher levels of investment have made the UAE and other Gulf economies more resilient. This week should be something the world can look back on and say that this was the moment humanity understood that only real change would save us. The Pulitzer Prize-winning author Daniel Yergin, writing in The Times , talked about a “new turbulence … arising from trade wars, tariffs, protectionism and the increasingly shaky relationships between nations … These are the realities that are impelling the rethink of the energy transition, which will be balanced against the need for energy access, security and affordability”. Mr Yergin said that “the restructuring of energy demand and flows in the coming years creates difficult choices”. “Today’s energy transition is meant to be fundamentally different from all preceding energy transitions … The wide range of challenges facing the transition mean that it will not unfold in a linear way,” he pointed out. Instead, he added, it will continue as it already is: “multidimensional, developing at varying rates of speed in different regions with different mixes of technologies and, definitely, with different priorities”. Often, we are so busy fighting our corner, believing that we are trying to fix one specific problem, to notice something deeper is usually stirring. Beneath the surface, societies and economies are being pushed towards a reckoning. This particular reckoning is one that we thought we had arrived at and resolved when the Paris climate deal was agreed in 2015. In fact, that has since proved to only be a single staging post and not the solution. This is because the future is never just a plan. It is not a five-year goal. That’s just PR. The future comes about by meeting each moment as it is . How can we do this? With agility and flexibility. And emotionally, by facing up to reality, not what we want the “truth” to be – which itself keeps evolving. What we believed to be good enough a decade ago no longer is, and we need to accept it – regardless of principles or ideology. To some extent, the long-standing structural problems of the Middle East have meant that in the UAE we cannot afford to be led by any fixed manifesto if the country is to prosper and thrive. We understand that it must respond to the shifting sands.