Not yet a year in 10 Downing Street, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will learn this week what it means politically to be deeply unpopular. The Labour party leader has a long slog ahead, as he tries to convince his country that his mission for change is the right medicine.
Thursday’s local elections for councils and mayors are likely to show heavy losses for Labour. In particular, the surging fortunes of the Reform UK party, led by Nigel Farage – the Donald Trump-like challenger – will capture the headlines. Feedback among campaigners highlights a generalised discontent that things are not going right in the UK, and the easy prescriptions of a populist are gaining more ground than in last July’s general election.
Yet there are some fundamental reasons that Mr Starmer and his lieutenants can afford to not panic in the wake of the setbacks expected this week.
Last year’s general election presented Mr Starmer with a commanding majority in the House of Commons. Moreover, the extensive nature of the gains provided a backbench cadre of new MPs who are sympathetic to Mr Starmer’s brand of politics. The UK parliamentary term can last five years, which means that low poll numbers now won’t necessarily be fatal for this government.
The Starmer administration is going to have to absorb some short-term pain, as it seeks to use its power to build a case for a second term at the end of the decade. The reformist version of himself that the Prime Minister likes to put out was on display yesterday, when he went to an event that showcased a new app that improves access to the National Health Service. So keen is the government on digital transformation that it even has a team of senior ministers who have overseen production of another new app that promises to give citizens a new digital identity.
With the impact of some of these initiatives likely to be seen and felt only in the long term, it is perhaps natural for people to feel that their country is adrift in the short term. And so, for the moment, Mr Farage is at the top of the YouGov and other polls. Reform UK is polling at 25 per cent favourability, compared to Labour’s 23 per cent and the formerly dominant Conservatives’ 20 per cent.
Mr Starmer’s own popularity is hovering in the low 20s. One reason for this is the bouquet of contentious issues that Mr Trump has presented to him and other world leaders. A YouGov survey last week said that only 13 per cent thought Mr Starmer was handling the challenges posed by Mr Trump well, compared to 76 per cent who said badly. Much of that is down to the discord that Mr Trump and his team have brought to transatlantic relations.
With the UK at the front of the race to sign a trade deal with the US and ameliorate the impact of Washington’s tariffs, there could be a lift coming for Mr Starmer in the next two weeks. At the same time, Mr Starmer is trying to tie down a new deal with the EU that overcomes some of the Brexit-triggered divisions that have dominated over the past decade. By the end of May, his serious approach to solving problems could be seen to have delivered for the UK, which is facing uncertain times in its relations with both America and Europe.
However, after 14 years out of power, there are gaps in the Labour government’s foreign and domestic policies. For example, it doesn’t have a settled approach on how to deal with the Middle East. Its handling of the economy is also far from a proven winner, while reforms to public services have been sideswiped by additional spending eaten up by pay rises for the workforce.
Logic suggests a cabinet reshuffle is the offing.
Some ministers have performed well, with Attorney General Richard Hermer being a case in point. A vastly respected lawyer with a human rights and international background, he is close to Mr Starmer. It is his gatekeeper role on issues like the war in Gaza that is fundamental to the government’s policy. In recent weeks, he has taken steps to emerge from the shadows.
Briefings have emerged that say Mr Hermer is taking a proactive approach to how the government is interpreting the law. Having started his time in government with a cautious interpretation of laws and courts, he has since been willing to shed some of his inhibitions. Officials have been impressed with his speed of work on the bailout of British Steel. He has been photographed giving a briefing to uniformed military lawyers. There is the prospect of him joining an overnight raid on illegal immigrants to show that the government is taking action on a thorny issue.
Some ministers have undoubtedly underperformed. Others who were more technocratic have shown a better political grasp. Some of the junior ministers have outshone their cabinet bosses. In order to effectively address his own unpopularity, Mr Starmer needs to get his team right, rewarding performers and those showing that they can cope with being hated as long as they are turning around the government and the economy.
Although he is an Arsenal fan and his team has just lost out on the English Premier League title, Mr Starmer could do with adopting to the mantra of the winning Liverpool team. Walk through the storm, Mr Prime Minister.
