The first 100 days of a US presidency is a useful – but made-up – milestone. It was first made-up by Franklin Delano Roosevelt after his landslide 1932 presidential election victory. FDR promised a “New Deal” for the American people, and from the moment he arrived in the White House in 1933 Roosevelt brought Congress into a three-month (100 days) session to pass 15 major bills, 77 new laws along with 99 executive orders to repair the damage of the Great Depression.
New public works, new dams on great rivers, and a new kind of vigour energised the US government and the American people. FDR’s energy built the superpower.
It’s too early to judge Donald Trump’s presidency but his first 100 days is a landmark that will be reached on 30 April.
Already we can see a credibility gap between the boasts and few positive achievements. This has been blurred by the deluge of new words, new problems and new distractions.
It is therefore worth going through some of the most obvious yardsticks by which Mr Trump’s 100 days may be measured to compare promises and potential future progress. Or otherwise.
First, Ukraine. The much publicised and not-much-believed Trump claim was to end the conflict in 24 hours. Almost 100 days later, US administration statements suggest Mr Trump may now “pass” on bringing peace to Ukraine. Yet peace, not “passing”, was the Trump promise, even if no one, presumably not even Mr Trump himself, believed what he promised.
Then there is “the most beautiful word” in the Trump dictionary, “tariffs”. It’s too soon to say what kind of effect the proposed (and subsequently changed, reconfigured or withdrawn) tariffs will eventually have, although trade experts use words like “uncertainty” and “dislocation”.
What we can say is that the greatest geo-strategic competitor of the US, China, seems energised by the prospect of a Trump tariff battle. China commentators have reported that Chinese President Xi Jinping’s government appears to see trade dislocation and economic consequences as very unfortunate but perhaps ultimately bringing some political advantages.
Beijing, with a Communist government, is standing up for free trade against protectionism. In countries as far apart geographically and politically as South and East Asia, Africa, Latin America, the Middle East and Europe, the Trump Tariffs can make the future look like a contest between protectionist Trumpland and the (mostly) free-trade Rest of the World.
Even countries that have at times difficult relationships with Beijing are sharing some Trump tariff pain. Market reaction includes descriptive words like “turmoil” or “uncertainty” or “jitters,” and as former UK Conservative prime minister Margaret Thatcher always lectured the British people: “You can’t buck the market”. Mr Trump may prove otherwise. I wouldn’t count on it.
One other key foreign policy ambition is worth touching upon, Mr Trump wants US expansion, specifically targeting Canada, Greenland and Panama. In his address to Congress in March he said that “to further enhance our national security, my administration will be reclaiming the Panama Canal”.
No member of the Trump administration has explained what “reclaiming” means. There are real concerns in Washington about alleged Chinese influence in the Canal Zone with unconfirmed reports of the US military being ordered to draw up contingency plans for possible action.
I was in Panama reporting for the BBC on the US invasion of Panama some years ago and can reveal the utterly unsurprising truth: the US has always had plans to seize control of the Panama Canal if this vital strategic asset for international trade ever comes under threat. No shock there.
Greenland, home to vital US military bases, has also always been a significant strategic interest for the Pentagon since 1945. Here, however, the Trump administration in sending an uninvited Vice President JD Vance to Greenland managed a remarkable trick by irritating both independence-minded native Greenlanders and also the old colonial power, Denmark. This was a text-book study in dim diplomacy.
Finally, the Trump 100 days report card ends with Canada. There Mr Trump has created another kind of unity. He has united Canadians around patriotism, the maple leaf and Canadian sovereignty. This has given an enormous electoral boost to Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal party.
They were on course to lose power but in standing up to Mr Trump’s ambitions and tariffs Mr Carney is now considered the favourite to win the general election on April 28. In wanting Canada as the 51st state, as Mr Carney puts it, Mr Trump has a “strategy to break us so America can own us. We are over the shock of the betrayal. But we should never forget the lessons”.
We can all add our own reflections on Mr Trump’s first 100-day achievements but for now there isn’t space to discuss the attempted reformation of the entire US government, personnel changes, the attacks on universities, US-EU relations, Gaza, Iran and many other hugely important topics.
Two big domestic political questions also remain. Have the money markets really stabilised? And are Republicans in Congress really happy with how things are going? We’ll find out soon.
