Last week, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun stated that “the decision has been taken” to give the state a monopoly over weapons in the country, albeit through dialogue and not force. The statement was directed primarily at Hezbollah and echoed the President’s inaugural address and the government’s policy statement, at a time when there is increasing pressure on Lebanon, from inside and outside, to disarm the group.
In his comments, Mr Aoun distinguished between the usual term used to discuss a process through which Hezbollah surrenders its weapons – a national defence strategy – and what he described as a “national security strategy” that “improved Lebanon [in terms of the] economy, diplomacy, security, the judiciary, finances, and information”. In this way, the President watered down the centrality of the group’s weapons, making it part of a wider national process to enhance Lebanon’s position.
Mr Aoun is no fool. He sees the tensions that today surround Hezbollah’s retention of its weapons in a deeply divided country. His efforts to temper the rhetoric around this issue do not mean he wants to hand the group room to manoeuvre. Rather, he has no intention of making the weapons a source of greater domestic discord, which may conceivably lead to civil conflict.
What direction might such a dialogue take? A large part of the answer will be tied to Iran’s calculations
In light of this, the President also revealed he would conduct the dialogue with Hezbollah himself. He added that “messages had been exchanged” between the two sides to move closer on this question, and that once things had progressed significantly, the dialogue could be ended with a more formal framework or session.
The President’s description may not have pleased hardliners who are impatient on Hezbollah’s disarmament. Yet Lebanon is caught between a rock and a hard place. If Hezbollah rejects a dialogue, Israel may intervene again and occupy more Lebanese land, making a withdrawal conditional on the group’s demilitarisation. So, Mr Aoun’s tactic is to initiate a discussion and make gains far from the limelight.
What direction might such a dialogue take? A large part of the answer will be tied to Iran’s calculations. After Israeli aircraft killed Hezbollah secretary general Hassan Nasrallah last September, even as Israel was eliminating dozens of the party's senior military commanders, Hezbollah has been largely run by Iran, which played an instrumental role in naming Naim Qassem to succeed Nasrallah last October.
If Iran rejects the idea of disarming Hezbollah, it will be difficult for Mr Aoun to advance in his plans. It was no surprise, then, that Hezbollah officials took a harder line on disarmament last Friday, on the eve of the Rome talks between Iran and the US. This underlined that the group’s weapons are really part of a broader negotiation process between Tehran and Washington that transcends Lebanon.
However, even if Iran is holding the Hezbollah card tightly, it may be willing to give it up in exchange for concessions, because its value has diminished. Hezbollah’s military role has been made redundant because of its inability to mount new attacks against Israel. The group is isolated domestically, the destruction in Shiite-majority areas is immense, and Hezbollah no longer can rearm itself through Syria.
In this context, for Iran to try to revive its devastated project of an “axis of resistance” surrounding Israel with rockets seems almost ludicrous. Most of its allies have been crippled, such as Hamas and Hezbollah; or don’t want to fight Israel, such as the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces; or are too far away to matter, such as the Houthis in Yemen. Moreover, Iran doesn’t have the money to invest in such a scheme because of its profound economic crisis and sanctions.
The question, therefore, is whether Iran may be willing to put Hezbollah’s future on the table in its negotiations with the Americans. Until now, nothing indicates it would be, but these are early times in the talks. The administration of US President Donald Trump has indicated it would like to expand the scope of negotiations to cover more than Tehran’s nuclear programme and include its regional alliances.
However, even if Iran were to yield on Hezbollah’s arms in the negotiations, that would not necessarily imply a smooth disarmament process in Lebanon. Any move over its weapons could lead Hezbollah to make demands of its own to compensate, such as greater political representation in the Lebanese system.
Lebanon’s political order is indeed in need of reform, as the system put in place after the Taif Accord of 1989 is no longer really functional. Taif was never fully implemented, but even if it is, many of its shortcomings will remain. The Shiite community is entitled to more representation in Parliament than it has today, based on the country’s current demographic make-up. Organising a national forum on constitutional change may be a step in the right direction.
However, this will make for a much more intricate process than simply confiscating Hezbollah’s arms. If the Lebanese do decide to renegotiate their Constitution and establish a Third Republic, the group will have to give up its arsenal as a prerequisite for any such step. No one will negotiate with a community that is armed.
On the other hand, once Hezbollah opens the door to engage in a discussion on its community’s political representation, it will have truly looked beyond its weapons and placed itself under the authority of the Taif Accord – and therefore the Constitution – as Mr Qassem said it would in a speech last year. Was he sincere? Now is the time to test Hezbollah’s intentions.
CONFIRMED%20LINE-UP
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
What is the FNC?
The Federal National Council is one of five federal authorities established by the UAE constitution. It held its first session on December 2, 1972, a year to the day after Federation.
It has 40 members, eight of whom are women. The members represent the UAE population through each of the emirates. Abu Dhabi and Dubai have eight members each, Sharjah and Ras al Khaimah six, and Ajman, Fujairah and Umm Al Quwain have four.
They bring Emirati issues to the council for debate and put those concerns to ministers summoned for questioning.
The FNC’s main functions include passing, amending or rejecting federal draft laws, discussing international treaties and agreements, and offering recommendations on general subjects raised during sessions.
Federal draft laws must first pass through the FNC for recommendations when members can amend the laws to suit the needs of citizens. The draft laws are then forwarded to the Cabinet for consideration and approval.
Since 2006, half of the members have been elected by UAE citizens to serve four-year terms and the other half are appointed by the Ruler’s Courts of the seven emirates.
In the 2015 elections, 78 of the 252 candidates were women. Women also represented 48 per cent of all voters and 67 per cent of the voters were under the age of 40.
Company profile
Name: Thndr
Started: October 2020
Founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: FinTech
Initial investment: pre-seed of $800,000
Funding stage: series A; $20 million
Investors: Tiger Global, Beco Capital, Prosus Ventures, Y Combinator, Global Ventures, Abdul Latif Jameel, Endure Capital, 4DX Ventures, Plus VC, Rabacap and MSA Capital
The%20specs%20
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Our legal advisor
Ahmad El Sayed is Senior Associate at Charles Russell Speechlys, a law firm headquartered in London with offices in the UK, Europe, the Middle East and Hong Kong.
Experience: Commercial litigator who has assisted clients with overseas judgments before UAE courts. His specialties are cases related to banking, real estate, shareholder disputes, company liquidations and criminal matters as well as employment related litigation.
Education: Sagesse University, Beirut, Lebanon, in 2005.
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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How the bonus system works
The two riders are among several riders in the UAE to receive the top payment of £10,000 under the Thank You Fund of £16 million (Dh80m), which was announced in conjunction with Deliveroo's £8 billion (Dh40bn) stock market listing earlier this year.
The £10,000 (Dh50,000) payment is made to those riders who have completed the highest number of orders in each market.
There are also riders who will receive payments of £1,000 (Dh5,000) and £500 (Dh2,500).
All riders who have worked with Deliveroo for at least one year and completed 2,000 orders will receive £200 (Dh1,000), the company said when it announced the scheme.
Company%20profile
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The Bio
Name: Lynn Davison
Profession: History teacher at Al Yasmina Academy, Abu Dhabi
Children: She has one son, Casey, 28
Hometown: Pontefract, West Yorkshire in the UK
Favourite book: The Alchemist by Paulo Coelho
Favourite Author: CJ Sansom
Favourite holiday destination: Bali
Favourite food: A Sunday roast
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Director: Scott Cooper
Starring: Jeremy Allen White, Odessa Young, Jeremy Strong
Rating: 4/5
Key figures in the life of the fort
Sheikh Dhiyab bin Isa (ruled 1761-1793) Built Qasr Al Hosn as a watchtower to guard over the only freshwater well on Abu Dhabi island.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Dhiyab (ruled 1793-1816) Expanded the tower into a small fort and transferred his ruling place of residence from Liwa Oasis to the fort on the island.
Sheikh Tahnoon bin Shakhbut (ruled 1818-1833) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further as Abu Dhabi grew from a small village of palm huts to a town of more than 5,000 inhabitants.
Sheikh Khalifa bin Shakhbut (ruled 1833-1845) Repaired and fortified the fort.
Sheikh Saeed bin Tahnoon (ruled 1845-1855) Turned Qasr Al Hosn into a strong two-storied structure.
Sheikh Zayed bin Khalifa (ruled 1855-1909) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further to reflect the emirate's increasing prominence.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Sultan (ruled 1928-1966) Renovated and enlarged Qasr Al Hosn, adding a decorative arch and two new villas.
Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan (ruled 1966-2004) Moved the royal residence to Al Manhal palace and kept his diwan at Qasr Al Hosn.
Sources: Jayanti Maitra, www.adach.ae
GIANT REVIEW
Starring: Amir El-Masry, Pierce Brosnan
Director: Athale
Rating: 4/5
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