As US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan kicked in – before it was then suspended for 90 days – turmoil in world markets was particularly marked in South-East Asia, a region hit especially hard by the new levies.
The Indonesian rupiah fell to its lowest rate ever against the dollar, while other currencies hit lows not seen for years. Emissaries are being sent to Washington by Vietnam – faced with a 46 per cent tariff rate – Indonesia (32 per cent), Malaysia (24 per cent), and Thailand (36 per cent), while others, including Cambodia (49 per cent) and Laos (48 per cent), are doubtless making whatever case they can for leniency.
Myanmar, handed a tariff rate of 44 per cent, is hardly in any position to retaliate or even negotiate, while the Philippines (17 per cent) and Singapore (10 per cent) must be thankful to have gotten off relatively lightly.
Asian markets rallied after Mr Trump announced his pause. But if he goes through with his announced plan, regional economies that benefited from the “China Plus One” formula, where manufacturers moved to third countries to avoid US tariffs on Chinese goods, will be affected very badly – perhaps none more so than Vietnam.
The country makes half the world’s Nike shoes, and about 30 per cent of its total exports are to the US. Its leaders had offered to slash tariffs on US imports to zero, but that was batted away by Mr Trump’s trade adviser, Peter Navarro, who said: “That means nothing to us because it’s the non-tariff cheating that matters.”
His accusation was that Chinese goods were being rerouted through Vietnam, intellectual property was being stolen and, like others in the Trump administration, he also has a strong aversion to value-added taxes, which they view as tariffs. On Thursday, the Vietnamese government said that negotiations had begun for a “reciprocal” trade agreement, but given Mr Trump’s mercurial temperament, who knows what will come of that.
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has said that, as this year’s chair of the 10-member Association of South-East Asian Nations, he will be co-ordinating a response “to engage constructively” with the US and that the 680 million-strong bloc should “present a united regional front, maintain open and resilient supply chains and ensure that Asean’s collective voice is heard clearly and firmly on the international stage”.
Nevertheless, the move has still caused mayhem. There are understandable fears that businesses may decide to move to other countries and that foreign investment could be severely hit. When Chinese President Xi Jinping visits Cambodia, Malaysia and Vietnam, a trip that will start next week, he will be well-placed to position his country as a responsible and reliable partner, as opposed to a volatile and capricious America under Mr Trump, who has deliberately not made it clear how long his tariffs are supposed to last.
Are they permanent, or are they to force the kind of deal Mr Trump believes he excels at? “There can be permanent tariffs – and there can also be negotiations because there are things that we need beyond tariffs,” he told reporters recently. If you were an investor considering building a new factory in Vietnam or Cambodia, I don’t think you would find that reply reassuring.
It has been felt for some years in South-East Asia that the US has talked a good game on engagement with the region, but Trump sunk the centrepiece of Barack Obama’s 'pivot to Asia'
Asean can and will look to other markets – this may give a necessary jolt to long-stalled talks on an Asean-EU free trade agreement. But the group as a whole is already Beijing’s largest trading partner, and China is now positioning itself as a defender of free trade against Mr Trump’s tariff onslaught.
At the end of last month, China, South Korea and Japan struck a deal to strengthen mutual free trade ties, and officials held a second trilateral on the sidelines of an Asean finance ministers’ meeting in Kuala Lumpur this week. Considering the sometimes-highly acrimonious territorial disputes the three countries have between them – not to mention the fact that Japan and South Korea are both treaty allies of the US – this increasing co-operation is quite remarkable.
But then the EU has also had a very prickly relationship with Beijing, with Brussels freezing ratification of an important agreement between the two in 2021. Yet, faced with Mr Trump’s trade war, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen spoke to Chinese Premier Li Qiang to ask for his help and issued a statement stressing “the responsibility of Europe and China, as two of world’s largest markets, to support a strong reformed trading system, free, fair and founded on a level playing field”.
It has been felt for some years in South-East Asia that the US has talked a good game on engagement with the region, but Mr Trump sunk the centrepiece of Barack Obama’s “pivot to Asia” when he withdrew America from the Trans-Pacific Partnership as soon as he took office the first time, while in terms of supporting the big-ticket infrastructure projects many countries need, the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity launched by then-president Joe Biden in 2022 was frankly no match for China’s ambitious (and quite usefully capacious and imprecise) Belt and Road Initiative.
What remains is US commitment to a strong security role in the region. However, some will be asking how sure a security partner it can be when it may be willing to inflict so much economic pain on countries that are (mostly) supposed to be on friendly terms with Washington.
While some countries are closer to China, most wish for balance. Even if they don’t say so publicly, many leaders welcome America’s military presence. This is not out of fear of China, as such; more that any group of countries bordering a large major power is aware of the dominance the hegemon could assert, if unchecked.
No one quite knows what security guarantees mean under Mr Trump. Now they do know that he is happy to take a pick-axe to their growth plans if he thinks it will help his own country – the announced tariffs could knock up to 5 per cent off Vietnam’s gross domestic product, for instance.
Beijing has its own tariffs to deal with, of course, but expect Mr Xi to be all smiles on his imminent mini-tour of South-East Asia. If Mr Trump wanted to make the Chinese President look like the reliable partner in the Asia-Pacific room, he couldn’t have done a better job.
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
GIANT REVIEW
Starring: Amir El-Masry, Pierce Brosnan
Director: Athale
Rating: 4/5
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What is the FNC?
The Federal National Council is one of five federal authorities established by the UAE constitution. It held its first session on December 2, 1972, a year to the day after Federation.
It has 40 members, eight of whom are women. The members represent the UAE population through each of the emirates. Abu Dhabi and Dubai have eight members each, Sharjah and Ras al Khaimah six, and Ajman, Fujairah and Umm Al Quwain have four.
They bring Emirati issues to the council for debate and put those concerns to ministers summoned for questioning.
The FNC’s main functions include passing, amending or rejecting federal draft laws, discussing international treaties and agreements, and offering recommendations on general subjects raised during sessions.
Federal draft laws must first pass through the FNC for recommendations when members can amend the laws to suit the needs of citizens. The draft laws are then forwarded to the Cabinet for consideration and approval.
Since 2006, half of the members have been elected by UAE citizens to serve four-year terms and the other half are appointed by the Ruler’s Courts of the seven emirates.
In the 2015 elections, 78 of the 252 candidates were women. Women also represented 48 per cent of all voters and 67 per cent of the voters were under the age of 40.
RESULTS
Cagliari 5-2 Fiorentina
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
10 tips for entry-level job seekers
- Have an up-to-date, professional LinkedIn profile. If you don’t have a LinkedIn account, set one up today. Avoid poor-quality profile pictures with distracting backgrounds. Include a professional summary and begin to grow your network.
- Keep track of the job trends in your sector through the news. Apply for job alerts at your dream organisations and the types of jobs you want – LinkedIn uses AI to share similar relevant jobs based on your selections.
- Double check that you’ve highlighted relevant skills on your resume and LinkedIn profile.
- For most entry-level jobs, your resume will first be filtered by an applicant tracking system for keywords. Look closely at the description of the job you are applying for and mirror the language as much as possible (while being honest and accurate about your skills and experience).
- Keep your CV professional and in a simple format – make sure you tailor your cover letter and application to the company and role.
- Go online and look for details on job specifications for your target position. Make a list of skills required and set yourself some learning goals to tick off all the necessary skills one by one.
- Don’t be afraid to reach outside your immediate friends and family to other acquaintances and let them know you are looking for new opportunities.
- Make sure you’ve set your LinkedIn profile to signal that you are “open to opportunities”. Also be sure to use LinkedIn to search for people who are still actively hiring by searching for those that have the headline “I’m hiring” or “We’re hiring” in their profile.
- Prepare for online interviews using mock interview tools. Even before landing interviews, it can be useful to start practising.
- Be professional and patient. Always be professional with whoever you are interacting with throughout your search process, this will be remembered. You need to be patient, dedicated and not give up on your search. Candidates need to make sure they are following up appropriately for roles they have applied.
Arda Atalay, head of Mena private sector at LinkedIn Talent Solutions, Rudy Bier, managing partner of Kinetic Business Solutions and Ben Kinerman Daltrey, co-founder of KinFitz
Why it pays to compare
A comparison of sending Dh20,000 from the UAE using two different routes at the same time - the first direct from a UAE bank to a bank in Germany, and the second from the same UAE bank via an online platform to Germany - found key differences in cost and speed. The transfers were both initiated on January 30.
Route 1: bank transfer
The UAE bank charged Dh152.25 for the Dh20,000 transfer. On top of that, their exchange rate margin added a difference of around Dh415, compared with the mid-market rate.
Total cost: Dh567.25 - around 2.9 per cent of the total amount
Total received: €4,670.30
Route 2: online platform
The UAE bank’s charge for sending Dh20,000 to a UK dirham-denominated account was Dh2.10. The exchange rate margin cost was Dh60, plus a Dh12 fee.
Total cost: Dh74.10, around 0.4 per cent of the transaction
Total received: €4,756
The UAE bank transfer was far quicker – around two to three working days, while the online platform took around four to five days, but was considerably cheaper. In the online platform transfer, the funds were also exposed to currency risk during the period it took for them to arrive.
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The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
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More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
SUNDAY'S ABU DHABI T10 MATCHES
Northern Warriors v Team Abu Dhabi, 3.30pm
Bangla Tigers v Karnataka Tuskers, 5.45pm
Qalandars v Maratha Arabians, 8pm
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KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
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Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
