Last weekend, the US deputy special envoy, Morgan Ortagus visited Beirut, her second trip since Joseph Aoun was elected Lebanon's President. While the first visit was aimed at opening channels to Mr Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, the latest had a harder edge: Ms Ortagus wants the Lebanese to set a timetable for Hezbollah’s disarmament and establish committees to address unresolved matters with Israel.
Both demands have made the Lebanese uneasy. Hezbollah’s disarmament is too complex and risky to be rushed by outside forces acting on their own politically convenient schedule. And the Lebanese are wary of talks with Israel that could create a semblance of normalisation between the two countries. While they want to address three main issues – disputed borders, Israel’s full withdrawal from Lebanon and Lebanese prisoners held in Israel – they don’t want the format to allow Israel to spin this as a step towards peace.
The question of Hezbollah’s weapons is acute for Lebanon, not least because the President and his government have openly committed themselves to the principle that the state should have a monopoly over weapons. Yet their preferred way of bringing this about is through dialogue. Recently, Mr Aoun repeated this point in an interview with the broadcaster France 24, adding that Hezbollah was co-operating on the question of its weapons.
Aoun is especially conscious of a second event making him more realistic about disarming Hezbollah by force
Hardliners hostile to Hezbollah were unhappy with the President’s mention of a dialogue, feeling this would give the party a margin of manoeuvre to undermine disarmament. While their point may be defensible in theory, it’s difficult to see what is a realistic alternative to dialogue, given the real dangers of pursuing other methods.
The Lebanese authorities are not about to take military action to disarm Hezbollah, which would likely be seen by most Shiite citizens as an attack against their community. This could lead to civil war, divide the army, and provoke deeply unwelcome outcomes. For all its merits, the army doesn’t have the capacity to easily eliminate Hezbollah by force.
Moreover, the country encouraging this measure, the US, has credibility problems in Beirut. While Mr Aoun seeks to maintain strong relations with Washington, he is not willing to do so if it means the Americans try to impose an Israeli agenda on him.
Ms Ortagus has her own issues in this regard. When she visited Beirut last, she made the mistake of declaring at a press conference: “We are grateful to our ally Israel for defeating Hezbollah,” oblivious to the destruction the Israelis had caused in the country hosting her. The statement embarrassed the Lebanese, yet revealed that the Trump administration is willing to go far in advancing Israeli goals in Lebanon.
More ominously, Lebanese officials are aware of two things in their country’s recent history that impose caution when it comes to negotiations with Israel and implementing a military solution to confiscate Hezbollah’s weapons.
In 1982–1983, the Lebanese began talks with Israel to reach a withdrawal agreement after the summer war between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organisation.
The negotiations deeply divided Lebanon, leading to what would have been a peace accord had it been implemented. The outcome was heightened conflict that prevented the government from ratifying the accord, after which the US withdrew from Lebanon.
The Americans failed then to understand that Lebanon could not sign a peace agreement without a domestic consensus, so that forcing the issue only made matters worse and brought about a resumption of the civil war. Today, a formula must be found to avoid discrediting Mr Aoun and Mr Salam, who nonetheless oppose Hezbollah’s priorities.
Mr Aoun is especially conscious of a second event making him more realistic about disarming Hezbollah by force. He was an officer in 1990, when the army, then led by Michel Aoun, tried to disarm the Christian Lebanese Forces militia. The campaign failed disastrously, though the army was stronger than the militia, and led to devastation and, ultimately, Michel Aoun’s 14-year exile from the country.
Does Joseph Aoun intend to repeat that experience? It’s highly unlikely, and it would be a major mistake if he and the government tried doing so. Even a desire to secure American backing won’t make the Lebanese embark on a new cycle of civil conflict.
But the Lebanese must be careful. They also cannot delay a dialogue with Hezbollah, let alone put off a more vigorous implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which seeks disarmament of the area south of the Litani River. With Israel having a blank cheque in Washington, it is conceivable that if it feels that Lebanon is not fulfilling its end of the ceasefire agreement reached in November, Israel may restart the conflict, push up to the Litani or beyond, and remain there indefinitely until Hezbollah is disarmed and a peace agreement is imposed.
The Lebanese are right in resisting American injunctions that may not be thought out, particularly if they correspond to Israel’s reading of Lebanon’s events. However, leaving things as they are is dangerous. Israel has many options, and unless the Lebanese prepare for and try to neutralise them, they may soon find that more of their country is occupied.
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BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
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Key figures in the life of the fort
Sheikh Dhiyab bin Isa (ruled 1761-1793) Built Qasr Al Hosn as a watchtower to guard over the only freshwater well on Abu Dhabi island.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Dhiyab (ruled 1793-1816) Expanded the tower into a small fort and transferred his ruling place of residence from Liwa Oasis to the fort on the island.
Sheikh Tahnoon bin Shakhbut (ruled 1818-1833) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further as Abu Dhabi grew from a small village of palm huts to a town of more than 5,000 inhabitants.
Sheikh Khalifa bin Shakhbut (ruled 1833-1845) Repaired and fortified the fort.
Sheikh Saeed bin Tahnoon (ruled 1845-1855) Turned Qasr Al Hosn into a strong two-storied structure.
Sheikh Zayed bin Khalifa (ruled 1855-1909) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further to reflect the emirate's increasing prominence.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Sultan (ruled 1928-1966) Renovated and enlarged Qasr Al Hosn, adding a decorative arch and two new villas.
Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan (ruled 1966-2004) Moved the royal residence to Al Manhal palace and kept his diwan at Qasr Al Hosn.
Sources: Jayanti Maitra, www.adach.ae
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Dates for the diary
To mark Bodytree’s 10th anniversary, the coming season will be filled with celebratory activities:
- September 21 Anyone interested in becoming a certified yoga instructor can sign up for a 250-hour course in Yoga Teacher Training with Jacquelene Sadek. It begins on September 21 and will take place over the course of six weekends.
- October 18 to 21 International yoga instructor, Yogi Nora, will be visiting Bodytree and offering classes.
- October 26 to November 4 International pilates instructor Courtney Miller will be on hand at the studio, offering classes.
- November 9 Bodytree is hosting a party to celebrate turning 10, and everyone is invited. Expect a day full of free classes on the grounds of the studio.
- December 11 Yogeswari, an advanced certified Jivamukti teacher, will be visiting the studio.
- February 2, 2018 Bodytree will host its 4th annual yoga market.
The biog
Age: 35
Inspiration: Wife and kids
Favourite book: Changes all the time but my new favourite is Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman
Best Travel Destination: Bora Bora , French Polynesia
Favourite run: Jabel Hafeet, I also enjoy running the 30km loop in Al Wathba cycling track
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Jordan cabinet changes
In
- Raed Mozafar Abu Al Saoud, Minister of Water and Irrigation
- Dr Bassam Samir Al Talhouni, Minister of Justice
- Majd Mohamed Shoueikeh, State Minister of Development of Foundation Performance
- Azmi Mahmud Mohafaza, Minister of Education and Minister of Higher Education and Scientific Research
- Falah Abdalla Al Ammoush, Minister of Public Works and Housing
- Basma Moussa Ishakat, Minister of Social Development
- Dr Ghazi Monawar Al Zein, Minister of Health
- Ibrahim Sobhi Alshahahede, Minister of Agriculture and Minister of Environment
- Dr Mohamed Suleiman Aburamman, Minister of Culture and Minister of Youth
Out
- Dr Adel Issa Al Tawissi, Minister of High Education and Scientific Research
- Hala Noaman “Basiso Lattouf”, Minister of Social Development
- Dr Mahmud Yassin Al Sheyab, Minister of Health
- Yahya Moussa Kasbi, Minister of Public Works and Housing
- Nayef Hamidi Al Fayez, Minister of Environment
- Majd Mohamed Shoueika, Minister of Public Sector Development
- Khalid Moussa Al Huneifat, Minister of Agriculture
- Dr Awad Abu Jarad Al Mushakiba, Minister of Justice
- Mounir Moussa Ouwais, Minister of Water and Agriculture
- Dr Azmi Mahmud Mohafaza, Minister of Education
- Mokarram Mustafa Al Kaysi, Minister of Youth
- Basma Mohamed Al Nousour, Minister of Culture
What can you do?
Document everything immediately; including dates, times, locations and witnesses
Seek professional advice from a legal expert
You can report an incident to HR or an immediate supervisor
You can use the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation’s dedicated hotline
In criminal cases, you can contact the police for additional support
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Managing the separation process
- Choose your nursery carefully in the first place
- Relax – and hopefully your child will follow suit
- Inform the staff in advance of your child’s likes and dislikes.
- If you need some extra time to talk to the teachers, make an appointment a few days in advance, rather than attempting to chat on your child’s first day
- The longer you stay, the more upset your child will become. As difficult as it is, walk away. Say a proper goodbye and reassure your child that you will be back
- Be patient. Your child might love it one day and hate it the next
- Stick at it. Don’t give up after the first day or week. It takes time for children to settle into a new routine.And, finally, don’t feel guilty.
The five pillars of Islam
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-finals, first leg
Liverpool v Roma
When: April 24, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Anfield, Liverpool
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 2, Stadio Olimpico, Rome
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