Pick up a stone, then drop it. What happens? It falls, obviously. That’s how the law of gravity works. The laws of economics are different. Whatever laws humans invent to explain how prices rise and fall with supply and demand, there is always a human factor that is difficult to predict and that human factor can change how we regard economic “laws”.
US President Donald Trump is that human factor right now. It looks as if he thinks he can defy whatever economic laws may have existed for years, especially the idea that globalisation means an interconnected, more prosperous world of trade in which conflicts between nations are less likely because conflict is bad for business. That was the optimistic scenario that has guided most of the world for decades. It doesn’t look so optimistic now. But when the future is uncertain, history provides some guidance.
In Europe, the 1840s were known as the “Hungry Forties” of failed harvests and poverty. A Scottish writer of that time, Thomas Carlyle, famously described economics as “the dismal science” for its pessimistic view of the world.
Carlyle was reacting to economic predictions that the world’s population would always grow faster than our ability to produce food, condemning most humans to inescapable poverty. Thankfully, it hasn’t quite worked out like that.
While hundreds of millions of us do live in poverty, from China and Vietnam to nations in Latin America, Africa and the Middle East have seen living standards rise for most citizens even if the global economic picture today looks dismal and uncertain.
Will Mr Trump stick to the pain that he is causing not just in foreign countries but to Americans themselves? Will large demonstrations against tariffs in the US change the political landscape? Will Congress rebel against Mr Trump’s policies? And will basic economics force a rethink in Washington? Who can be sure. But on that last point, commentators point out that the tariffs Mr Trump has levied hit way beyond obvious economic competitors such as China, the EU and fast-growing economies like Vietnam.
Tariffs have bizarrely even been levied on uninhabited islands where penguins live. The Heard and McDonald Islands are somewhere between Madagascar and Antarctica and have not been visited by humans in a decade. Now they too are hit by the Trump tariffs. All this raises the question of whether Mr Trump knows what he is doing.
He wants to bring back manufacturing to the US. He believes jobs have been lost by unfair competition and carelessness in Washington about “free trade”. Yet there has been a lot of commentary on social media about whether it makes sense (for example) for the US to compete with Vietnam in making cheap items of clothing.
That argument goes like this: if a Vietnamese worker can make a sweatshirt for $2 and the Trump tariffs increase that cost by around 50 per cent then the shirt still only costs $3 to manufacture in Vietnam. Making the same item in the US might cost $20. Would American consumers want to pay the difference?
Perhaps, then, the simplest way of understanding what is going on is to see tariffs as just another Trump “wall”, an economic wall built to keep cheap goods out of the US and encourage self-sufficiency, by undermining the globalised world economy that has kept us interconnected for years. But do such “walls” really “work”?
Mr Trump promised when launching his first presidential campaign in June 2015: “I would build a great wall, and nobody builds walls better than me, believe me, and I’ll build them very inexpensively. I will build a great, great wall on our southern border and I’ll have Mexico pay for that wall”.
He did build parts of a wall, but Mexico didn’t pay for it. Migration experts pointed out to me that building that wall meant that seasonal workers from Mexico and elsewhere, who used to come to the US for a few months at harvest time and then go home to Mexico, chose to stay in the US rather than face difficulties at the border.
The wall kept people in as much as it kept some out. Mr Trump is now summarily deporting migrants, but that is simply more proof the wall failed in the past. So will the tariff wall work any better?
History suggests otherwise. Economists and their “dismal science” have many different views of what might happen next as the stock markets slide and market confidence diminishes. The truth is that no one – including perhaps Mr Trump himself – can accurately forecast whether economic laws will function as predictably as the laws of gravity.
What we can predict, however, is that Mr Trump will change course only when American voters and workers, as well as investors, feel real pain from rising prices and falling financial markets. In other words, the great dislocation of world economies has only just begun.
On Women's Day
Dr Nawal Al-Hosany: Why more women should be on the frontlines of climate action
Shelina Janmohamed: Why shouldn't a spouse be compensated fairly for housework?
Samar Elmnhrawy: How companies in the Middle East can catch up on gender equality
Justin Thomas: Challenge the notion that 'men are from Mars, women are from Venus'
More coverage from the Future Forum
• Remittance charges will be tackled by blockchain
• UAE's monumental and risky Mars Mission to inspire future generations, says minister
• Could the UAE drive India's economy?
• News has a bright future and the UAE is at the heart of it
• Architecture is over - here's cybertecture
• The National announces Future of News journalism competition
• Round up: Experts share their visions of the world to come
Zayed Sustainability Prize
More on animal trafficking
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Saudi National Day
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
ICC Women's T20 World Cup Asia Qualifier 2025, Thailand
UAE fixtures
May 9, v Malaysia
May 10, v Qatar
May 13, v Malaysia
May 15, v Qatar
May 18 and 19, semi-finals
May 20, final
Our commentary on Brexit
- Alistair Burt: Despite Brexit, Britain can remain a world power
- Sam Williams: Departure is influenced by its sense of place
Most sought after workplace benefits in the UAE
- Flexible work arrangements
- Pension support
- Mental well-being assistance
- Insurance coverage for optical, dental, alternative medicine, cancer screening
- Financial well-being incentives
MIDWAY
Produced: Lionsgate Films, Shanghai Ryui Entertainment, Street Light Entertainment
Directed: Roland Emmerich
Cast: Ed Skrein, Woody Harrelson, Dennis Quaid, Aaron Eckhart, Luke Evans, Nick Jonas, Mandy Moore, Darren Criss
Rating: 3.5/5 stars
While you're here
Gavin Esler: Coronavirus offers stinging rebuke to protectionists
Kareem Shaheen: Pandemics can save us from waging wars
Sholto Byrnes: Why the climate change clash will get nastier
While you're here
Richard Heydarian: Decoding Asean's deliberate silence over the Myanmar coup
Kareem Shaheen: Our Myanmar reactions shaped by simplistic narratives
Sholto Byrnes: Washington tells South-East Asians to pick a side
THE DEALS
Hamilton $60m x 2 = $120m
Vettel $45m x 2 = $90m
Ricciardo $35m x 2 = $70m
Verstappen $55m x 3 = $165m
Leclerc $20m x 2 = $40m
TOTAL $485m
Mina Al-Oraibi: Suleimani death casts a long shadow over decade ahead
Khaled Yacoub Oweis: Hezbollah bids to control Lebanon’s financial system
National Editorial: Hezbollah's murky dealings in Iraq have been unveiled
Tomorrow 2021
More on Afghanistan
Con Coughlin: US-Taliban peace deal - what's the deal and where's the peace?
National Editorial: The US-Taliban peace deal is only the first step to peace
Ken Hedricks: The Afghan scorpion farmer harvesting valuable venom
Neighbourhood Watch
War on waste
About Karol Nawrocki
• Supports military aid for Ukraine, unlike other eurosceptic leaders, but he will oppose its membership in western alliances.
• A nationalist, his campaign slogan was Poland First. "Let's help others, but let's take care of our own citizens first," he said on social media in April.
• Cultivates tough-guy image, posting videos of himself at shooting ranges and in boxing rings.
• Met Donald Trump at the White House and received his backing.
While you're here
The National Editorial: Fawzia Koofi's shooting reminds us who the Taliban really are
Ruchi Kumar: In Afghanistan, Taliban gives with one hand and takes away with the other
Sulaiman Hakemy: 'Afghan' is now a globalised identity, whether the Taliban likes it or not
School uniforms report
More on Quran memorisation:
Plastic tipping point
More from this package
Tomorrow 2021
Transgender report
• Remittance charges will be tackled by blockchain
• UAE's monumental and risky Mars Mission to inspire future generations, says minister
• Could the UAE drive India's economy?
• News has a bright future and the UAE is at the heart of it
• Architecture is over - here's cybertecture
• The National announces Future of News journalism competition
• Round up: Experts share their visions of the world to come
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
Gender equality in the workplace still 200 years away
It will take centuries to achieve gender parity in workplaces around the globe, according to a December report from the World Economic Forum.
The WEF study said there had been some improvements in wage equality in 2018 compared to 2017, when the global gender gap widened for the first time in a decade.
But it warned that these were offset by declining representation of women in politics, coupled with greater inequality in their access to health and education.
At current rates, the global gender gap across a range of areas will not close for another 108 years, while it is expected to take 202 years to close the workplace gap, WEF found.
The Geneva-based organisation's annual report tracked disparities between the sexes in 149 countries across four areas: education, health, economic opportunity and political empowerment.
After years of advances in education, health and political representation, women registered setbacks in all three areas this year, WEF said.
Only in the area of economic opportunity did the gender gap narrow somewhat, although there is not much to celebrate, with the global wage gap narrowing to nearly 51 per cent.
And the number of women in leadership roles has risen to 34 per cent globally, WEF said.
At the same time, the report showed there are now proportionately fewer women than men participating in the workforce, suggesting that automation is having a disproportionate impact on jobs traditionally performed by women.
And women are significantly under-represented in growing areas of employment that require science, technology, engineering and mathematics skills, WEF said.
* Agence France Presse
In Praise of Zayed
A thousand grains of Sand whirl in the sky
To mark the journey of one passer-by
If then a Cavalcade disturbs the scene,
Shall such grains sing before they start to fly?
What man of Honour, and to Honour bred
Will fear to go wherever Truth has led?
For though a Thousand urge him to retreat
He'll laugh, until such counsellors have fled.
Stands always One, defiant and alone
Against the Many, when all Hope has flown.
Then comes the Test; and only then the time
Of reckoning what each can call his own.
History will not forget: that one small Seed
Sufficed to tip the Scales in time of need.
More than a debt, the Emirates owe to Zayed
Their very Souls, from outside influence freed.
No praise from Roderic can increase his Fame.
Steadfastness was the Essence of his name.
The changing years grow Gardens in the Sand
And build new Roads to Sand which stays the same.
But Hearts are not rebuilt, nor Seed resown.
What was, remains, essentially Alone.
Until the Golden Messenger, all-wise,
Calls out: "Come now, my Friend!" - and All is known
- Roderic Fenwick Owen
• Remittance charges will be tackled by blockchain
• UAE's monumental and risky Mars Mission to inspire future generations, says minister
• Could the UAE drive India's economy?
• News has a bright future and the UAE is at the heart of it
• Architecture is over - here's cybertecture
• The National announces Future of News journalism competition
• Round up: Experts share their visions of the world to come
World Mental Health Day
War and the virus
Simon Rushton: War vet raises £12m for health workers
Managing the separation process
- Choose your nursery carefully in the first place
- Relax – and hopefully your child will follow suit
- Inform the staff in advance of your child’s likes and dislikes.
- If you need some extra time to talk to the teachers, make an appointment a few days in advance, rather than attempting to chat on your child’s first day
- The longer you stay, the more upset your child will become. As difficult as it is, walk away. Say a proper goodbye and reassure your child that you will be back
- Be patient. Your child might love it one day and hate it the next
- Stick at it. Don’t give up after the first day or week. It takes time for children to settle into a new routine.And, finally, don’t feel guilty.
How to help
Call the hotline on 0502955999 or send "thenational" to the following numbers:
2289 - Dh10
2252 - Dh50
6025 - Dh20
6027 - Dh100
6026 - Dh200
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While you're here
Hussein Ibish: There are reasons for Democrats and Republicans to be happy
Rashmee Roshan Lall: Who are the women driving Joe Biden's success?
Our commentary on Brexit
- Con Coughlin: Choice of the British people will be vindicated
- Sam Williams: Departure is influenced by its sense of place
TO A LAND UNKNOWN
Director: Mahdi Fleifel
Starring: Mahmoud Bakri, Aram Sabbah, Mohammad Alsurafa
Rating: 4.5/5
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
What it means to be a conservationist
Who is Enric Sala?
Enric Sala is an expert on marine conservation and is currently the National Geographic Society's Explorer-in-Residence. His love of the sea started with his childhood in Spain, inspired by the example of the legendary diver Jacques Cousteau. He has been a university professor of Oceanography in the US, as well as working at the Spanish National Council for Scientific Research and is a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Future Council on Biodiversity and the Bio-Economy. He has dedicated his life to protecting life in the oceans. Enric describes himself as a flexitarian who only eats meat occasionally.
What is biodiversity?
According to the United Nations Environment Programme, all life on earth – including in its forests and oceans – forms a “rich tapestry of interconnecting and interdependent forces”. Biodiversity on earth today is the product of four billion years of evolution and consists of many millions of distinct biological species. The term ‘biodiversity’ is relatively new, popularised since the 1980s and coinciding with an understanding of the growing threats to the natural world including habitat loss, pollution and climate change. The loss of biodiversity itself is dangerous because it contributes to clean, consistent water flows, food security, protection from floods and storms and a stable climate. The natural world can be an ally in combating global climate change but to do so it must be protected. Nations are working to achieve this, including setting targets to be reached by 2020 for the protection of the natural state of 17 per cent of the land and 10 per cent of the oceans. However, these are well short of what is needed, according to experts, with half the land needed to be in a natural state to help avert disaster.
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
War on waste
The specs
• Remittance charges will be tackled by blockchain
• UAE's monumental and risky Mars Mission to inspire future generations, says minister
• Could the UAE drive India's economy?
• News has a bright future and the UAE is at the heart of it
• Architecture is over - here's cybertecture
• The National announces Future of News journalism competition
• Round up: Experts share their visions of the world to come
More from this package
BUNDESLIGA FIXTURES
Friday (UAE kick-off times)
Cologne v Hoffenheim (11.30pm)
Saturday
Hertha Berlin v RB Leipzig (6.30pm)
Schalke v Fortuna Dusseldof (6.30pm)
Mainz v Union Berlin (6.30pm)
Paderborn v Augsburg (6.30pm)
Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund (9.30pm)
Sunday
Borussia Monchengladbach v Werder Bremen (4.30pm)
Wolfsburg v Bayer Leverkusen (6.30pm)
SC Freiburg v Eintracht Frankfurt (9on)
Saudi National Day
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
OPINIONS ON PALESTINE & ISRAEL
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
While you're here
Layla Mashkoor: How policing has changed since the US protests began
Gavin Esler: The uniquely threads that tie Rodney King to George Floyd
Colin Randall: Police suicides on the rise in France after months of protests
More from this package
The biog:
From: Wimbledon, London, UK
Education: Medical doctor
Hobbies: Travelling, meeting new people and cultures
Favourite animals: All of them
On Women's Day
Dr Nawal Al-Hosany: Why more women should be on the frontlines of climate action
Shelina Janmohamed: Why shouldn't a spouse be compensated fairly for housework?
Justin Thomas: Challenge the notion that 'men are from Mars, women are from Venus'
The National Editorial: Is there much to celebrate on International Women's Day 2021?
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
• Remittance charges will be tackled by blockchain
• UAE's monumental and risky Mars Mission to inspire future generations, says minister
• Could the UAE drive India's economy?
• News has a bright future and the UAE is at the heart of it
• Architecture is over - here's cybertecture
• The National announces Future of News journalism competition
• Round up: Experts share their visions of the world to come
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
ONCE UPON A TIME IN GAZA
Starring: Nader Abd Alhay, Majd Eid, Ramzi Maqdisi
Directors: Tarzan and Arab Nasser
Rating: 4.5/5
• Remittance charges will be tackled by blockchain
• UAE's monumental and risky Mars Mission to inspire future generations, says minister
• Could the UAE drive India's economy?
• News has a bright future and the UAE is at the heart of it
• Architecture is over - here's cybertecture
• The National announces Future of News journalism competition
• Round up: Experts share their visions of the world to come
The biog
Born: Kuwait in 1986
Family: She is the youngest of seven siblings
Time in the UAE: 10 years
Hobbies: audiobooks and fitness: she works out every day, enjoying kickboxing and basketball
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Jigra
The specs: 2018 Volkswagen Teramont
Price, base / as tested Dh137,000 / Dh189,950
Engine 3.6-litre V6
Gearbox Eight-speed automatic
Power 280hp @ 6,200rpm
Torque 360Nm @ 2,750rpm
Fuel economy, combined 11.7L / 100km
Towering concerns
On Women's Day
Shelina Janmohamed: Why shouldn't a spouse be compensated fairly for housework?
Samar Elmnhrawy: How companies in the Middle East can catch up on gender equality
The National Editorial: Is there much to celebrate on International Women's Day 2021?
Justin Thomas: Challenge the notion that 'men are from Mars, women are from Venus'
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
Rashmee Roshan Lall: Sound of silence in South Asia
Fanar Haddad: The Iranian response will be gradual
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
How to watch Ireland v Pakistan in UAE
When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11
What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time.
TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Tomorrow 2021
The%20Emperor%20and%20the%20Elephant
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
While you're here
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
The biog
Name: Sari Al Zubaidi
Occupation: co-founder of Cafe di Rosati
Age: 42
Marital status: single
Favourite drink: drip coffee V60
Favourite destination: Bali, Indonesia
Favourite book: 100 Years of Solitude
SERIE A FIXTURES
Saturday (All UAE kick-off times)
Cagliari v AC Milan (6pm)
Lazio v Napoli (9pm)
Inter Milan v Atalanta (11.45pm)
Sunday
Udinese v Sassuolo (3.30pm)
Sampdoria v Brescia (6pm)
Fiorentina v SPAL (6pm)
Torino v Bologna (6pm)
Verona v Genoa (9pm)
Roma V Juventus (11.45pm)
Parma v Lecce (11.45pm)
Key recommendations
- Fewer criminals put behind bars and more to serve sentences in the community, with short sentences scrapped and many inmates released earlier.
- Greater use of curfews and exclusion zones to deliver tougher supervision than ever on criminals.
- Explore wider powers for judges to punish offenders by blocking them from attending football matches, banning them from driving or travelling abroad through an expansion of ‘ancillary orders’.
- More Intensive Supervision Courts to tackle the root causes of crime such as alcohol and drug abuse – forcing repeat offenders to take part in tough treatment programmes or face prison.
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
School uniforms report
Whiile you're here
Damien McElroy: Anti-science attitudes in America are proving lethal
Editorial: What makes the UAE such a good place to test vaccines?
Editorial: The fight against Covid-19 should be guided by science
While you're here
Mustafa Alrawi: To get the 'jab' done, there must be patience and empathy
Damien McElroy: Anti-science attitudes in America are proving lethal
Editorial: What makes the UAE such a good place to test vaccines?
Editorial: The fight against Covid-19 should be guided by science
War on waste
Dengue%20fever%20symptoms
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Specs
Transgender report
More from Firas Maksad
Zayed Sustainability Prize
More on animal trafficking
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
