US President Donald Trump has upended the foundations of the global economic order with his declaration of a tariff war targeting both allies and adversaries to force negotiations towards trade deals that would put an end to their supposed “exploitation” of America. It is essential to assess the geopolitical ramifications of these measures beyond trade dynamics.
Mr Trump is reshaping the global order. Some believe he is dismantling the post-Second World War global system that once served as a stabilising force, and that he is doing so haphazardly and childishly. Others say to wait and think carefully, because Mr Trump is not merely modifying the existing system. He is pushing all stakeholders to the negotiating table quickly, with the aim of realising an extraordinary vision for a new world order.
The whole world has felt the seismic shock of these tariffs, from China and India to Central Asia and Europe, from America’s neighbours to remote islands inhabited only by penguins. But in Europe, for example, Mr Trump’s policies have jolted the continent out of its slumber and dependency, compelling the EU to contemplate strategic security independence, especially in light of Mr Trump’s disruptive approach to Nato, and to reinvent itself economically and socially.
Contrary to what some believe, this could prove beneficial for Europe, rather than catastrophic. Moreover, the US is unlikely to be on the verge of withdrawing from Nato, as some fear. Rather, Mr Trump is rearranging the Nato house in a way that preserves the strategic alliance, but on terms of greater equity regarding its upkeep costs. His approach is more innovative in geopolitical thinking and less conventional when addressing major issues such as the relationship with Russia and the trajectory of the war in Ukraine.
The prevailing sentiment is that Tehran is manoeuvring
All countries will be on alert now because of the tariffs, examining their options, tightening belts and weighing whether they should impose retaliatory measures or back down and pursue negotiation and diplomacy with the Trump administration, rather than entering a deep and costly confrontation. India, for instance, will find its path. Europe will likewise manage to overcome the difficulties thanks to its large internal market and economic base. Mexico will suffer, and Canada will also pay a price. As for the economies of the Middle East, one of their greatest concerns will be the possible compounding effect of any US confrontation with Iran.
Despite his confidence in the success of the tariff war and his belief that it will restore American greatness and prosperity, Mr Trump is aware of the possibility that this gamble could fail and that the dream could turn into a nightmare for his policies. Therefore, he will need a political victory to compensate for the potential losses resulting from the tariff war.
This is where Iran comes in. It offers Mr Trump the most promising opportunity, whether through a new deal with clear Iranian concessions, or a military confrontation. A war with Iran would devastate the Iranian and potentially the regional economy, but not the American economy. A victory in a war against Iran could overshadow any internal economic hardship in the US, even if such hardship is temporary and lasts a year or a year and a half from now.
Currently, we are still in the countdown phase, either towards confrontation or towards concessions. Tehran understands the implications of the tariff war and its ripple effects on its allies and markets, and thus, on itself. It is also aware that Mr Trump is not bluffing when he threatens a painful military strike against Iran and its nuclear facilities if it persists in its obstinacy.
Hence, Iran is exploring less costly exits. Some Iranian officials have been leaking about their willingness to abandon the Houthis in Yemen as a goodwill gesture towards the Trump administration, in the hope Washington will show leniency towards Iran’s core nuclear programme, thereby preserving the regime, even if in a modified and diluted form.
The British newspaper The Telegraph recently cited a “senior official” in Iran saying Tehran could cease its support for the Houthi group. This comes as the US intensifies its air strikes against the Houthis.
If it is true Tehran is reassessing its policy towards its “proxies” in the region to avoid incurring Mr Trump’s wrath, then that would indicate that the Iranian leadership has finally come to understand the seriousness of the situation. It would mean they now realise they have no choice but to abandon a key pillar of their regime – namely, the strategy of using proxies and militias as a regional tool to achieve domination and export the ideology of the Iranian revolution.
Still, there is little sign that Iran’s rulers have definitively and comprehensively made such a decision. The prevailing sentiment is that Tehran is manoeuvring. Even if it is prepared to sacrifice its Houthi tool, its arm of influence in Yemen and a pathway to maritime dominance and the Bab Al Mandeb Strait and surrounding areas, there is suspicion that these are temporary measures in Iran’s mind. Furthermore, they did not arise out of Iran’s own initiative, but rather as a result of mounting US determination to dismantle the Houthi militias and eliminate their leadership and capabilities.
Moreover, as long as Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps continues to reassert its presence in Syria to regain a foothold there, as long as it clings to the Popular Mobilisation Forces in Iraq and as long as IRGC officials carry out field operations in Lebanon to fund and revive Hezbollah, then confidence in Tehran’s willingness to abandon the doctrine of proxies and armed extensions is virtually null.
Tailors and retailers miss out on back-to-school rush
Tailors and retailers across the city said it was an ominous start to what is usually a busy season for sales.
With many parents opting to continue home learning for their children, the usual rush to buy school uniforms was muted this year.
“So far we have taken about 70 to 80 orders for items like shirts and trousers,” said Vikram Attrai, manager at Stallion Bespoke Tailors in Dubai.
“Last year in the same period we had about 200 orders and lots of demand.
“We custom fit uniform pieces and use materials such as cotton, wool and cashmere.
“Depending on size, a white shirt with logo is priced at about Dh100 to Dh150 and shorts, trousers, skirts and dresses cost between Dh150 to Dh250 a piece.”
A spokesman for Threads, a uniform shop based in Times Square Centre Dubai, said customer footfall had slowed down dramatically over the past few months.
“Now parents have the option to keep children doing online learning they don’t need uniforms so it has quietened down.”
The five pillars of Islam
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
'My Son'
Director: Christian Carion
Starring: James McAvoy, Claire Foy, Tom Cullen, Gary Lewis
Rating: 2/5
What is Reform?
Reform is a right-wing, populist party led by Nigel Farage, a former MEP who won a seat in the House of Commons last year at his eighth attempt and a prominent figure in the campaign for the UK to leave the European Union.
It was founded in 2018 and originally called the Brexit Party.
Many of its members previously belonged to UKIP or the mainstream Conservatives.
After Brexit took place, the party focused on the reformation of British democracy.
Former Tory deputy chairman Lee Anderson became its first MP after defecting in March 2024.
The party gained support from Elon Musk, and had hoped the tech billionaire would make a £100m donation. However, Mr Musk changed his mind and called for Mr Farage to step down as leader in a row involving the US tycoon's support for far-right figurehead Tommy Robinson who is in prison for contempt of court.
THE BIO
Favourite book: ‘Purpose Driven Life’ by Rick Warren
Favourite travel destination: Switzerland
Hobbies: Travelling and following motivational speeches and speakers
Favourite place in UAE: Dubai Museum
RESULT
Esperance de Tunis 1 Guadalajara 1
(Esperance won 6-5 on penalties)
Esperance: Belaili 38’
Guadalajara: Sandoval 5’
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – FINAL RECKONING
Director: Christopher McQuarrie
Starring: Tom Cruise, Hayley Atwell, Simon Pegg
Rating: 4/5
About Seez
Company name/date started: Seez, set up in September 2015 and the app was released in August 2017
Founder/CEO name(s): Tarek Kabrit, co-founder and chief executive, and Andrew Kabrit, co-founder and chief operating officer
Based in: Dubai, with operations also in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Lebanon
Sector: Search engine for car buying, selling and leasing
Size: (employees/revenue): 11; undisclosed
Stage of funding: $1.8 million in seed funding; followed by another $1.5m bridge round - in the process of closing Series A
Investors: Wamda Capital, B&Y and Phoenician Funds
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
Key recommendations
- Fewer criminals put behind bars and more to serve sentences in the community, with short sentences scrapped and many inmates released earlier.
- Greater use of curfews and exclusion zones to deliver tougher supervision than ever on criminals.
- Explore wider powers for judges to punish offenders by blocking them from attending football matches, banning them from driving or travelling abroad through an expansion of ‘ancillary orders’.
- More Intensive Supervision Courts to tackle the root causes of crime such as alcohol and drug abuse – forcing repeat offenders to take part in tough treatment programmes or face prison.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Most sought after workplace benefits in the UAE
- Flexible work arrangements
- Pension support
- Mental well-being assistance
- Insurance coverage for optical, dental, alternative medicine, cancer screening
- Financial well-being incentives
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
MATCH INFO
What: India v Afghanistan, first Test
When: Starts Thursday
Where: M Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengalaru
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylturbo
Transmission: seven-speed DSG automatic
Power: 242bhp
Torque: 370Nm
Price: Dh136,814
MO
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Sarfira
Director: Sudha Kongara Prasad
Starring: Akshay Kumar, Radhika Madan, Paresh Rawal
Rating: 2/5
Water waste
In the UAE’s arid climate, small shrubs, bushes and flower beds usually require about six litres of water per square metre, daily. That increases to 12 litres per square metre a day for small trees, and 300 litres for palm trees.
Horticulturists suggest the best time for watering is before 8am or after 6pm, when water won't be dried up by the sun.
A global report published by the Water Resources Institute in August, ranked the UAE 10th out of 164 nations where water supplies are most stretched.
The Emirates is the world’s third largest per capita water consumer after the US and Canada.
UAE squad v Australia
Rohan Mustafa (C), Ashfaq Ahmed, Chirag Suri, Rameez Shahzad, Fahad Nawaz, Amjed Gul, Shaiman Anwar, Ahmed Raza, Imran Haider, Muhammad Naveed, Amir Hayat, Ghulam Shabir (WK), Qadeer Ahmed, Tahir Latif, Zahoor Khan
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ELECTION%20RESULTS
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Defence review at a glance
• Increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 but given “turbulent times it may be necessary to go faster”
• Prioritise a shift towards working with AI and autonomous systems
• Invest in the resilience of military space systems.
• Number of active reserves should be increased by 20%
• More F-35 fighter jets required in the next decade
• New “hybrid Navy” with AUKUS submarines and autonomous vessels
More on Quran memorisation:
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE
Starring: Ryan Reynolds, Hugh Jackman, Emma Corrin
Director: Shawn Levy
Rating: 3/5
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The Details
Article 15
Produced by: Carnival Cinemas, Zee Studios
Directed by: Anubhav Sinha
Starring: Ayushmann Khurrana, Kumud Mishra, Manoj Pahwa, Sayani Gupta, Zeeshan Ayyub
Our rating: 4/5
UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
How to wear a kandura
Dos
- Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
- Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
- Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
- Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester
Don’ts
- Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
- Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
DMZ facts
- The DMZ was created as a buffer after the 1950-53 Korean War.
- It runs 248 kilometers across the Korean Peninsula and is 4km wide.
- The zone is jointly overseen by the US-led United Nations Command and North Korea.
- It is littered with an estimated 2 million mines, tank traps, razor wire fences and guard posts.
- Donald Trump and Kim Jong-Un met at a building in Panmunjom, where an armistice was signed to stop the Korean War.
- Panmunjom is 52km north of the Korean capital Seoul and 147km south of Pyongyang, North Korea’s capital.
- Former US president Bill Clinton visited Panmunjom in 1993, while Ronald Reagan visited the DMZ in 1983, George W. Bush in 2002 and Barack Obama visited a nearby military camp in 2012.
- Mr Trump planned to visit in November 2017, but heavy fog that prevented his helicopter from landing.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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FIGHT%20CARD
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Company%20Profile
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The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
THE%C2%A0SPECS
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THE BIO
Favourite place to go to in the UAE: The desert sand dunes, just after some rain
Who inspires you: Anybody with new and smart ideas, challenging questions, an open mind and a positive attitude
Where would you like to retire: Most probably in my home country, Hungary, but with frequent returns to the UAE
Favorite book: A book by Transilvanian author, Albert Wass, entitled ‘Sword and Reap’ (Kard es Kasza) - not really known internationally
Favourite subjects in school: Mathematics and science
